KeyCorp · KEY · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

KeyCorp Q1 2026: EPS beat, NII and loan guidance raised, buyback to $1.3B

KeyCorp's growth story leans on fee-based businesses (investment banking, wealth, commercial payments) plus commercial loan growth as it remixes the balance sheet, funds roughly $1 billion in technology/AI spend, and returns capital through an expanded buyback. Momentum in fees and net interest margin supports the bullish case; deposit costs, middle-market M&A activity, and credit in consumer-discretionary portfolios are the swing factors.

Reported Before market openNYSEFinancial Services $21.86B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.44 Consensus $0.41
EPS surprise +6.4% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $1.95B Consensus $1.94B
Revenue surprise +0.8% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +0.5% Event window
SPY move +0.2% Same window
Abnormal move +0.2% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.6× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -2.7% Up to 20 sessions
KEYSPY benchmark

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Why did KEY rise 0.5% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in KEY's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for KEY after FY2026 Q1 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Q1 2026 EPS of $0.44 beat the roughly $0.41 consensus by about 6% and grew 33% YoY, with revenue up 10%. Management raised full-year net interest income guidance to 9-10% growth, upgraded loan growth guidance, and lifted the 2026 share-repurchase target to $1.3 billion from the prior $1.2 billion plan. Commercial loans expanded 4% sequentially. Guidance sentiment moved to raised.

Guidance delta

Raised. Management lifted full-year net interest income growth guidance to 9-10%, upgraded loan growth guidance, and increased the 2026 share-repurchase target to $1.3 billion after a $400 million Q1 buyback.

Key takeaways

  • EPS of $0.44 beat expectations and rose 33% YoY, with revenue up 10%.
  • Full-year net interest income growth guidance raised to 9-10%; loan growth guidance upgraded.
  • Commercial loan portfolio grew 4% sequentially, led by C&I, utilities, power, renewables and healthcare.
  • 2026 share-repurchase target raised to $1.3 billion after a $400 million Q1 buyback.
  • Roughly $1 billion allocated to technology and AI initiatives for 2026.

Management priorities

  • Deploy about $1 billion in technology and AI spend through 2026.
  • Continue hiring frontline bankers across middle-market, wealth and payments teams.
  • Execute the $1.3 billion share-repurchase program.
  • Expand NDFI and private-credit lending while maintaining high credit quality.
  • Shift the loan book toward higher-yield commercial loans and a lower-cost client deposit base.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
KEY EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 8 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $0.22 Q4 '23 actual $0.25, beat Q1 '24 estimate $0.22 Q1 '24 actual $0.22, match Q2 '24 estimate $0.24 Q2 '24 actual $0.25, match Q2 '25 estimate $0.35 Q2 '25 actual $0.35, match Q3 '25 estimate $0.38 Q3 '25 actual $0.41, beat Q4 '25 estimate $0.39 Q4 '25 actual $0.41, beat Q1 '26 estimate $0.41 Q1 '26 actual $0.44, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.42 Q2 '26 actual $0.44, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.46 Q4 '26 estimate $0.49 Q1 '27 estimate $0.50 Q2 '27 estimate $0.51

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy50 ratings
Bullish3162.0%
Neutral1734.0%
Bearish24.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$20.25Previous close
$15Low
$21.66Average
$28High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 25, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Truist Securities Hold HoldMaintainSep 23, 2026
Stephens & Co. Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 15, 2026
RBC Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 22, 2026
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 22, 2026
DA Davidson Buy BuyMaintainJul 22, 2026
Show 45 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $20.25. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
D.A. DavidsonPeter Winter$28$22.8 +38.3%Jul 22, 2026
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$25$22.95 +23.5%Jul 22, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$23$22.95 +13.6%Jul 22, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$27$23.42 +33.3%Jul 7, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$27$23.02 +33.3%Jul 6, 2026
See 53 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

KeyCorp functions as the parent entity for KeyBank National Association, delivering a wide array of banking services to retail and business clients across the United States. Its operations are distinctly segmented into a Consumer Bank and a Commercial Bank. Targeting both individual consumers and small to medium-sized businesses, the corporation extends a comprehensive suite of services. These offerings include various deposit accounts, investment solutions, personal financial planning and wellness programs, student loan refinancing, mortgage and home equity products, general lending, credit card services, treasury management, business advisory, wealth and asset management, and trust-related services. Moreover, the company furnishes middle-market clients with a robust selection of sophisticated banking and capital market products.…

Historical context

All KEY earnings
-1.6%FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026

Financial Services peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
PUK Prudential plc FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 -40.9% -0.5% Prudential sustains growth and capital returns focus in H1 2026
CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +8.9% -2.8% CIBC Q3: Broad growth, resilient credit and expanded AI rollout
TD The Toronto-Dominion Bank FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +13.8% +1.4% TD emphasizes growth investments alongside disciplined capital management
RY Royal Bank of Canada FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +6.2% -1.3% RBC reports record Q3 earnings while investing for growth
AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 +1230.3% +0.3% Affirm's most profitable quarter shifts focus to product execution

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-25T10:31:05.966229+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-25T10:31:05.963790+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-25. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.