KeyCorp · KEY-PL · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

KeyCorp reports record revenue and outlines 2026 growth plan

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: KeyCorp's earnings growth and resilient fee and lending demand could support its outlook if middle-market activity, deposit costs, and technology execution develop as management expects.

Reported Before market openNYSEFinancial Services $27.35B market cap
75quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.43 Consensus $0.39
EPS surprise +11.1% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $2.00B Consensus $1.96B
Revenue surprise +2.2% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

unavailable
Stock move — Event window
SPY move — Same window
Abnormal move — Stock minus SPY
Volume — Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift — Up to 20 sessions
Price and volume data were unavailable at publication time.

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How did the market react to KEY-PL FY2025 Q4 earnings, and why?What changed in KEY-PL's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for KEY-PL after FY2025 Q4 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The analysis highlights $100 million of annual AI and technology investment alongside $100 million of identified annual cost savings, a $200 million Q4 share repurchase, and a plan for $1.2 billion of FY2026 buybacks. Management also described tighter underwriting and deliberately limited growth in specialty finance.

Guidance delta

Management's 2026 outlook calls for revenue growth of about 7%, NII growth of 8%-10%, and expense growth of 3%-4%, implying improved operating leverage.

Key takeaways

  • Management reported record FY2025 revenue growth of 16%, supported by net interest income and fee growth.
  • The stated 2026 plan emphasizes C&I lending, middle-market M&A, wealth management, and commercial payments.
  • Capital return remains a priority, with $300 million of Q1 2026 buybacks and $1.2 billion planned for FY2026.

Management priorities

  • Scale AI and technology initiatives in call centers, underwriting, and operations.
  • Continue hiring bankers across wealth, commercial payments, middle market, and investment banking.
  • Pursue fee-based acquisitions and boutique partnerships while remixing the loan portfolio toward higher-yield commercial assets.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
KEY-PL EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 actual $0.07, None Q1 '24 actual $0.23, None Q2 '24 actual $0.29, None Q2 '25 estimate $0.35 Q2 '25 actual $0.39, beat Q3 '25 estimate $0.38 Q3 '25 actual $0.44, beat Q4 '25 estimate $0.39 Q4 '25 actual $0.43, beat Q1 '26 estimate $0.41 Q1 '26 actual $0.44, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.42 Q2 '26 actual $0.44, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.46 Q3 '26 actual $0.51, beat Q4 '26 estimate $0.50 Q1 '27 estimate $0.50 Q2 '27 estimate $0.51 Q3 '27 estimate $0.56
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy39 ratings
Bullish2256.4%
Neutral1641.0%
Bearish12.6%

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 4, 2023
Wolfe Research Peer Perform UnderperformUpgradeOct 3, 2023
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainSep 26, 2023
Piper Sandler Overweight NeutralUpgradeSep 14, 2023
Goldman Sachs Buy BuyMaintainJul 23, 2023
Show 34 more rating actions

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

KeyCorp, a financial holding company founded in 1849 and based in Cleveland, Ohio, primarily conducts its operations through its subsidiary, KeyBank National Association. This institution provides a comprehensive array of retail and commercial banking products and services throughout the United States, organized into two distinct segments: Consumer Bank and Commercial Bank. For individual customers and small to medium-sized businesses, KeyCorp offers a wide variety of financial solutions. These include deposit accounts, investment products, and personalized advice on financial wellness. They also facilitate student loan refinancing, provide mortgage and home equity options, issue credit cards, and extend various lending services. Additionally, the company delivers treasury services, business advisory, wealth and asset management, portfolio management, and trust services.…

Historical context

All KEY-PL earnings
—FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026—FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026—FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Financial Services peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
EWBC East West Bancorp, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +1.5% +2.2% EWBC: Record Q3 Results, Higher NII Guidance
COF Capital One Financial Corporation FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +21.6% +0.9% Capital One posts Q3 beat as synergies and credit trends strengthen
KEY-PK KeyCorp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +10.5% — KeyCorp posts strong Q3 as deposits and loan demand support growth
KEY-PJ KeyCorp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +10.5% — KeyCorp reports record revenue as deposits and commercial lending strengthen
KEY-PI KeyCorp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +10.5% — KeyCorp posts record Q3 as deposits and commercial lending accelerate
KEY KeyCorp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +10.5% +4.5% KeyCorp Q3 revenue tops $2 billion as deposits and utilization strengthen

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-21. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.