International Paper Company · IP · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025

International Paper: DS Smith lifts growth as demand remains soft

The quarter provides mixed evidence for a growth thesis: DS Smith synergies, pricing and cost programs improved the trajectory, but soft demand and execution risks keep the outlook dependent on management delivering its planned commercial and productivity benefits.

Reported Before market openNYSEBasic Materials $16.84B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $0.39
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $6.44B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -4.1% Event window
SPY move +0.0% Same window
Abnormal move -4.1% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.4× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +5.0% Up to 20 sessions
IPSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, DS Smith was completed and was materially contributing to sales growth; management quantified expected synergies at $600-$700 million, introduced a strategic sale process for Global Cellulose Fiber, and raised the longer-term cost-out target to $1.9 billion by 2027.

Guidance delta

Maintained. Management kept the 2025 adjusted EBITDA run-rate target at $3.5-$4 billion, with upside potential to $5.5-$6 billion if demand improves.

Key takeaways

  • DS Smith was materially contributing to sales growth, with expected synergies of $600-$700 million.
  • North American demand was down 2% and Europe remained soft, but management cited pricing, commercial execution and cost reductions as offsets.
  • Cost-out programs targeted $1.9 billion of savings by 2027; $400-$500 million of annual savings had already been generated.
  • Free cash flow was affected by $670 million of transformation spending, while full-year free cash flow was still expected at $100-$300 million.

Management priorities

  • Complete DS Smith integration and capture targeted synergies.
  • Expand the 80/20 performance system to more than 75 box plants in North America and Europe by mid-year.
  • Continue cost-out execution, pricing and commercial initiatives.
  • Pursue a strategic sale of the Global Cellulose Fiber business.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
IP EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $0.34 Q4 '23 actual $0.41, beat Q1 '24 estimate $0.22 Q1 '24 actual $0.17, miss Q2 '24 estimate $0.40 Q2 '24 actual $0.55, beat Q3 '24 estimate $0.26 Q3 '24 actual $0.44, beat Q2 '25 estimate $0.39 Q2 '25 actual $0.20, miss Q3 '25 estimate $0.47 Q3 '25 actual $-0.43, miss Q4 '25 estimate $0.28 Q4 '25 actual $-0.08, miss Q1 '26 estimate $0.15 Q1 '26 actual $0.15, match Q2 '26 estimate $-0.03 Q2 '26 actual $0.04, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.28 Q4 '26 estimate $0.76 Q1 '27 estimate $0.55
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold28 ratings
Bullish1657.2%
Neutral621.4%
Bearish621.4%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$31.81Previous close
$35Low
$52.94Average
$80High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainOct 12, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 7, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 5, 2026
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainOct 2, 2026
Argus Research Buy BuyMaintainSep 24, 2026
Show 23 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $31.81. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
UBSAnalyst unavailable$35$31.97 +10.0%Oct 5, 2026
Seaport GlobalAnalyst unavailable$46$41.32 +44.6%Aug 12, 2026
RBC CapitalMatthew McKellar$52$41.25 +63.5%Jul 31, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$47$42.29 +47.8%Jul 31, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$46$43.15 +44.6%Jul 31, 2026
See 47 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

International Paper Company, established in 1898 and headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee, functions as a leading global packaging enterprise. Its extensive operational footprint spans the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Pacific Rim, Asia, and various other regions across the Americas. The company's business activities are structured into two principal divisions: Industrial Packaging and Global Cellulose Fibers. The Industrial Packaging segment is dedicated to producing a diverse range of containerboards, which encompass linerboard, medium, whitetop, recycled linerboard, recycled medium, and saturating kraft.…

Historical context

All IP earnings

Basic Materials peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
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RPM RPM International Inc. FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2026 +1.5% +3.2% RPM posts record quarter, but input costs narrow the outlook

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-04-16T00:02:45.914612+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-14T10:40:48.216313+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-14T10:40:48.213241+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-14. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.