Intel Corp. · INTC · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Intel: AI Demand Strengthens, but Supply and Foundry Risks Persist

The current analysis supports a cautiously constructive Intel thesis: AI-driven demand, server CPU momentum, advanced packaging, and new process-node ramps provide growth support, but the thesis depends on supply expansion, margin management, and progress toward Foundry profitability.

Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology $618.39B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.29 Consensus $0.02
EPS surprise +1428.7% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $13.58B Consensus $12.42B
Revenue surprise +9.3% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +23.6% Event window
SPY move +0.8% Same window
Abnormal move +22.8% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.6× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +45.2% Up to 20 sessions
INTCSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis describes stronger demand outpacing supply, improving foundry yields, additional long-term volume support, and raised guidance sentiment. The central risks remain supply, margins, PC demand, and Foundry losses.

Guidance delta

The current analysis characterizes guidance sentiment as raised, versus lowered in the prior-quarter analysis; no numerical guidance change was supplied.

Key takeaways

  • Management described AI-related demand as strong across CPUs, client products, and data-center businesses.
  • Demand continues to outpace supply for Xeon server CPUs and new Core Ultra Series 3 products.
  • Foundry yields are improving, but the segment remains loss-making and 18A ramp costs pressure margins.
  • Stable capex, advanced-packaging backlog, long-term contracts, and new partnerships support the growth case.
  • PC demand, input costs, supply constraints, and Foundry losses remain material risks.

Management priorities

  • Scale wafer starts across Intel 10/7, Intel 3, and 18A nodes.
  • Continue 14A process development and customer engagements.
  • Expand advanced-packaging capacity and backlog.
  • Launch Core Ultra Series 3 and the broader Core Series 3 family.
  • Develop heterogeneous AI collaborations with SambaNova and SpaceX/xAI.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
INTC EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $0.14 Q1 '24 actual $0.18, beat Q2 '24 estimate $0.10 Q2 '24 actual $0.02, miss Q3 '24 estimate $-0.02 Q3 '24 actual $-0.46, miss Q2 '25 estimate $0.01 Q2 '25 actual $-0.10, miss Q3 '25 estimate $0.02 Q3 '25 actual $0.23, beat Q4 '25 estimate $0.08 Q4 '25 actual $0.15, beat Q1 '26 estimate $0.02 Q1 '26 actual $0.29, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.21 Q2 '26 actual $0.42, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.39 Q4 '26 estimate $0.43 Q1 '27 estimate $0.40 Q2 '27 estimate $0.48
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold83 ratings
Bullish3137.4%
Neutral4554.2%
Bearish78.4%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$124.34Current
$18Low
$74.49Average
$200High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 24, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Tigress Financial Buy BuyMaintainSep 15, 2026
Northland Capital Markets Outperform Market PerformUpgradeSep 8, 2026
Mizuho Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 4, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 12, 2026
B of A Securities Buy BuyMaintainAug 12, 2026
Show 79 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $124.34. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Tigress FinancialAnalyst unavailable$145$97.14 +16.6%Sep 15, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$110$106.24 -11.5%Sep 9, 2026
Northland SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$120$95.8 -3.5%Sep 8, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$92$91.67 -26.0%Sep 4, 2026
UBSTimothy Arcuri$112$97.71 -9.9%Aug 12, 2026
See 181 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Intel Corporation designs, develops, manufactures, markets, sells, and services computing and related end products and services in the United States, Ireland, Israel, and internationally. It operates through three segments: CCG, DCAI, and Intel Foundry. The company offers client computing group products, including client and commercial CPUs, discrete client GPUs, edge computing, and connectivity products; data center and AI products, such as server CPUs, discrete GPUs, and networking products; and semiconductors comprising wafer fabrication, substrates, and other related products and services.…

Historical context

All INTC earnings

Technology peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
ADBE Adobe Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +0.8% +1.4% Adobe raises FY26 outlook as AI strategy broadens
ORCL Oracle Corporation FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 +10.3% -1.7% Oracle raises FY27 outlook as AI demand accelerates cloud growth
SAIL SailPoint, Inc. FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 +13.8% -1.2% SailPoint pairs 25% ARR growth with accelerating AI-driven adoption
CIEN Ciena Corporation FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +22.0% -10.4% Ciena raises outlook as AI networking demand lifts backlog
DOCU DocuSign, Inc. FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 +6.4% +3.7% DocuSign Q2 FY27: IAM momentum supports a raised outlook
IOT Samsara Inc. FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 +25.0% +3.7% Samsara: AI adoption expands as FY27 guidance holds

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-24T16:50:55.060896+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-24T16:50:55.057194+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-24. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.