Intel Corp. · INTC · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Intel demand holds up, but supply and margin pressure weigh on outlook

The quarter supports a mixed view: AI-linked demand and product and foundry progress provide growth support, but supply constraints, yields, memory costs and lower near-term guidance weaken the case for a clean recovery.

Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology $606.44B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.15 Consensus $0.08
EPS surprise +84.4% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $13.67B Consensus $13.43B
Revenue surprise +1.8% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -17.0% Event window
SPY move +0.0% Same window
Abnormal move -17.1% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.7× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -3.2% Up to 20 sessions
INTCSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, guidance sentiment moved from maintained to lowered. The current analysis also highlights memory-cost pressure, persistent supply limits and a server roadmap transition, while citing progress on 18A, 14A, custom ASICs and advanced packaging.

Guidance delta

Guidance sentiment moved from maintained in the prior quarter to lowered, with lower Q1 2026 revenue and margin expected before a potential supply recovery and margin expansion.

Key takeaways

  • Q4 revenue was above guidance, while non-GAAP EPS was $0.15.
  • AI demand supports client, data-center and ASIC activity.
  • Supply constraints and below-standard yields limited upside.
  • 18A production and 14A development advanced alongside foundry efforts.
  • Q1 2026 guidance is lower, with expected margin pressure.

Management priorities

  • Scale 18A production and continue 14A development
  • Deliver Core Ultra Series 3 and advance Diamond and Coral Rapids
  • Expand external foundry and advanced packaging offerings
  • Develop custom ASIC and design-service opportunities

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
INTC EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $0.14 Q1 '24 actual $0.18, beat Q2 '24 estimate $0.10 Q2 '24 actual $0.02, miss Q3 '24 estimate $-0.02 Q3 '24 actual $-0.46, miss Q2 '25 estimate $0.01 Q2 '25 actual $-0.10, miss Q3 '25 estimate $0.02 Q3 '25 actual $0.23, beat Q4 '25 estimate $0.08 Q4 '25 actual $0.15, beat Q1 '26 estimate $0.02 Q1 '26 actual $0.29, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.21 Q2 '26 actual $0.42, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.39 Q4 '26 estimate $0.43 Q1 '27 estimate $0.40 Q2 '27 estimate $0.48
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold83 ratings
Bullish3137.4%
Neutral4554.2%
Bearish78.4%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$120Current
$18Low
$74.49Average
$200High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 2, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainSep 24, 2026
Tigress Financial Buy BuyMaintainSep 15, 2026
Northland Capital Markets Outperform Market PerformUpgradeSep 8, 2026
Mizuho Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 4, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 12, 2026
Show 79 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $120. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Tigress FinancialAnalyst unavailable$145$97.14 +20.8%Sep 15, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$110$106.24 -8.3%Sep 9, 2026
Northland SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$120$95.8 +0.0%Sep 8, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$92$91.67 -23.3%Sep 4, 2026
UBSTimothy Arcuri$112$97.71 -6.7%Aug 12, 2026
See 181 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Intel Corporation designs, develops, manufactures, markets, sells, and services computing and related end products and services in the United States, Ireland, Israel, and internationally. It operates through three segments: CCG, DCAI, and Intel Foundry. The company offers client computing group products, including client and commercial CPUs, discrete client GPUs, edge computing, and connectivity products; data center and AI products, such as server CPUs, discrete GPUs, and networking products; and semiconductors comprising wafer fabrication, substrates, and other related products and services.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-02T01:06:04.914342+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-02T01:06:04.911384+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-02. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.