Intel Corp. · INTC · FY2024 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2024

Intel: Product Progress Continues, but Charges and Execution Risks Remain

The supplied analysis supports a mixed view: product launches, AI PC and server demand, AWS commitments, and 18A progress provide potential growth drivers, while charges, competitive pressure, geopolitical exposure, and foundry execution risks constrain the near-term case.

Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology $474.96B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $-0.46 Consensus $-0.02
EPS surprise -2090.5% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $13.28B Consensus $13.02B
Revenue surprise +2.0% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +7.8% Event window
SPY move +0.4% Same window
Abnormal move +7.4% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.2× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +3.1% Up to 20 sessions
INTCSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, Intel's product roadmap advanced through additional launches and an AWS multiyear commitment, while cost and capital discipline continued. The current analysis also identified a $3 billion Intel 7 impairment and substantial non-GAAP charges as important near-term profitability headwinds.

Guidance delta

Guidance was maintained. The Q4 outlook called for flat-to-modest revenue growth, a 39.5% gross-margin midpoint, and continued negative adjusted free cash flow for 2024, with positive free cash flow targeted for 2025.

Key takeaways

  • Q3 revenue modestly exceeded guidance, while large restructuring and impairment charges weighed on profitability.
  • Management highlighted launches and progress across Lunar Lake, Arrow Lake, Xeon Granite Rapids, Gaudi 3, and the 18A process.
  • Cost discipline remains central, including a workforce reduction of more than 15% and capital-expenditure reductions versus plan.
  • External foundry revenue is still a small fraction of total revenue, making the 18A ramp and customer adoption important execution tests.

Management priorities

  • Execute the 18A node ramp and launch Panther Lake.
  • Continue portfolio simplification and focus on the x86 franchise.
  • Advance Intel Foundry toward an independent-subsidiary model.
  • Expand the AI PC ecosystem and develop Xeon, Gaudi 3, and advanced-packaging opportunities.
  • Deliver the planned cost, capital-expenditure, and free-cash-flow improvements.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
INTC REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $15B Q4 '23 actual $15B, beat Q1 '24 estimate $13B Q1 '24 actual $13B, miss Q2 '24 estimate $13B Q2 '24 actual $13B, miss Q3 '24 estimate $13B Q3 '24 actual $13B, beat Q2 '25 estimate $12B Q2 '25 actual $13B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $13B Q3 '25 actual $14B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $13B Q4 '25 actual $14B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $12B Q1 '26 actual $14B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $14B Q2 '26 actual $16B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $16B Q4 '26 estimate $17B Q1 '27 estimate $17B Q2 '27 estimate $18B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold83 ratings
Bullish3137.4%
Neutral4554.2%
Bearish78.4%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$89.85Current
$18Low
$74.71Average
$200High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 18, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Mizuho Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 6, 2026
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainSep 24, 2026
Tigress Financial Buy BuyMaintainSep 15, 2026
Northland Capital Markets Outperform Market PerformUpgradeSep 8, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 12, 2026
Show 79 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $89.85. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$114$116.19 +26.9%Oct 6, 2026
Tigress FinancialAnalyst unavailable$145$97.14 +61.4%Sep 15, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$110$106.24 +22.4%Sep 9, 2026
Northland SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$120$95.8 +33.6%Sep 8, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$92$91.67 +2.4%Sep 4, 2026
See 182 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Intel Corporation designs, develops, manufactures, markets, sells, and services computing and related end products and services in the United States, Ireland, Israel, and internationally. It operates through three segments: CCG, DCAI, and Intel Foundry. The company offers client computing group products, including client and commercial CPUs, discrete client GPUs, edge computing, and connectivity products; data center and AI products, such as server CPUs, discrete GPUs, and networking products; and semiconductors comprising wafer fabrication, substrates, and other related products and services.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-11-10T18:38:36.707185+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-18T20:10:42.747723+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-18T20:10:42.744875+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-18. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.