Humana Inc. · HUM · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Humana Q1: Membership Growth and Max Health Acquisition Keep 2028 Margin Target on Track

Humana's first quarter reinforced the trajectory management laid out last quarter: membership is still growing, the Max Health acquisition is expanding CenterWell's primary-care footprint, and operational efficiencies are beginning to flow through. The company reaffirmed 2026 guidance and remains on track for its 2028 sustainable margin goal of at least 3%. The stock reacted strongly, with an abnormal move of nearly 6% on the report and a subsequent drift of roughly 27%, suggesting the market is gaining confidence in the margin recovery story. The key tension is between that forward narrative and near-term pressures: a 35% sequential jump in IBNR reserves, a persistent funding gap between medical cost trends and CMS rates, and potential $1 to $1.5 billion in cash outflows from Welsh Carson put/call options in 2027 to 2028.

Reported Before market openNYSEHealthcare $43.93B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $10.31 Consensus $10.24
EPS surprise +0.7% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $39.65B Consensus $39.37B
Revenue surprise +0.7% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +5.8% Event window
SPY move -0.0% Same window
Abnormal move +5.8% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.2× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +27.0% Up to 20 sessions
HUMSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, Humana's bullish score ticked up from 68 to 72. Management's tone remained confident and guidance was maintained. New developments include the Max Health acquisition adding 110,000 primary-care patients in Q1, the 35% sequential IBNR reserve increase outpacing 22% membership growth, and more specific disclosure around Welsh Carson put/call obligations. The prior quarter's $3.5 billion STAR headwind and 2026 EPS guidance of at least $9 remain in focus but were not revised.

Guidance delta

Management reaffirmed its 2026 guidance and maintained its 2028 sustainable margin target of at least 3%. The expectation to double individual MA margin by 2026 was reiterated. No upward or downward revision was announced. Guidance sentiment is characterized as maintained, consistent with the prior quarter.

Key takeaways

  • EPS of $10.31 beat the $10.24 consensus by 0.7%; revenue of $39.65B beat by 0.7%.
  • Membership growth continued, with MA and Medicaid each adding roughly 50,000 lives driven by new state programs.
  • Max Health acquisition closed, adding 110,000 primary-care patients and expanding CenterWell in Florida.
  • IBNR reserves rose 35% sequentially versus 22% membership growth, reflecting a prudent reserving approach.
  • Balance sheet strengthened with $1B in junior subordinated notes and $3B in capital contribution mitigation.

Management priorities

  • Complete Max Health integration and continue acquisitions to broaden CenterWell reach.
  • Maintain a disciplined bid process for 2027 with focus on margin preservation.
  • Execute non-core asset divestitures to fund strategic growth.
  • Scale outsourcing and automation to further reduce operating costs.
  • Target top-quartile Star ratings by 2028 to support margin objectives.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
HUM EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $-0.07 Q4 '23 actual $-0.11, miss Q1 '24 estimate $6.12 Q1 '24 actual $7.23, beat Q2 '24 estimate $5.85 Q2 '24 actual $6.96, beat Q3 '24 estimate $3.40 Q3 '24 actual $4.16, beat Q2 '25 estimate $5.92 Q2 '25 actual $6.27, beat Q3 '25 estimate $2.93 Q3 '25 actual $3.24, beat Q4 '25 estimate $-4.00 Q4 '25 actual $-3.96, beat Q1 '26 estimate $10.24 Q1 '26 actual $10.31, beat Q2 '26 estimate $7.27 Q2 '26 actual $7.61, beat Q3 '26 estimate $-1.00 Q4 '26 estimate $-8.18 Q1 '27 estimate $12.09
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold44 ratings
Bullish2147.7%
Neutral2250.0%
Bearish12.3%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$414.85Previous close
$180Low
$425.94Average
$652High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 28, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 13, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 12, 2026
Truist Securities Hold HoldMaintainOct 12, 2026
Raymond James Outperform Market PerformUpgradeOct 12, 2026
Oppenheimer Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 12, 2026
Show 39 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $414.85. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$495$433.5 +19.3%Oct 13, 2026
OppenheimerAnalyst unavailable$525$430.16 +26.6%Oct 12, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$495$431.5 +19.3%Oct 12, 2026
Truist FinancialDavid MacDonald$475$431.03 +14.5%Oct 12, 2026
Raymond JamesAnalyst unavailable$520$431.03 +25.3%Oct 12, 2026
See 121 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Humana Inc., a prominent health and well-being enterprise, operates across the United States through its various subsidiary companies. Its operational structure is divided into three main segments: Retail, Group and Specialty, and Healthcare Services. The firm provides a wide array of medical and supplementary insurance plans directly to individual consumers. Furthermore, Humana collaborates with government entities; it holds a contract with the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) to manage the Limited Income Newly Eligible Transition (LI NET) prescription drug program. The company also secures agreements with numerous states to deliver Medicaid, dual-eligible, and long-term care support benefits.…

Historical context

All HUM earnings

Healthcare peers this season

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NVS Novartis AG FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +9.3% +2.0% Novartis Q3 2026: Growth, Margin Expansion and Higher Guidance
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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-30T01:31:34.029702+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-30T01:31:34.026904+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-07-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.