Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy49 ratings
Bullish2857.1%
Neutral2142.9%
Bearish00.0%
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. · HLT · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Hilton Beats Q1 RevPAR Estimates, Raises Full-Year Guidance on Broad Demand
Hilton entered FY2026 with stronger-than-expected demand across business, leisure, and group segments, posting 3.6% system-wide RevPAR growth that exceeded the top end of prior guidance. Adjusted EBITDA rose 13% to $901 million, and management raised full-year RevPAR guidance from 1-2% to 2-3%. The company opened 131 hotels in the quarter and grew its development pipeline to a record 527,000 rooms, roughly 20% of all hotel rooms under construction globally. AI initiatives moved from exploratory to concrete with the launch of the Anthropic-powered Hilton AI Planner for guest trip planning. Capital returns of $860 million in Q1 keep Hilton on pace for $3.5 billion in buybacks and dividends for the year. The market initially sold off — a 2.25% abnormal decline on report day against a 0.49% benchmark dip — but the stock subsequently drifted +4.13%, suggesting the initial reaction…
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$73.40B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., a hospitality company, engages in managing, franchising, and leasing hotels and resorts. It operates in two segments, Management and Franchise, and Ownership. The company engages in the hotel management and licensing of its brand names, trademarks, and service marks. It operates a brand portfolio of luxury, lifestyle, full service, focused service, all-suites hotel, and timeshare under the Waldorf Astoria Hotels & Resorts, LXR Hotels & Resorts, Conrad Hotels & Resorts, Signia by Hilton, NoMad, Canopy by Hilton, Graduate by Hilton, Tempo by Hilton, Motto by Hilton, Hilton Hotels & Resorts, DoubleTree…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.01
Consensus $2
EPS surprise
+1.5%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.94B
Consensus $2.95B
Revenue surprise
-0.4%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$320.16Current
$135Low
$268.46Average
$379High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | In Line | Upgrade | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | May 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 30, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 21, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 12, 2025 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Melius Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 8, 2024 |
| HSBC | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 3, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Mar 20, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 14, 2022 |
| Redburn Partners | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 30, 2022 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 15, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 28, 2021 |
| Gordon Haskett | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jun 26, 2020 |
| Nomura Instinet | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 23, 2020 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 23, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 8, 2020 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Mar 30, 2020 |
| Longbow Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 15, 2019 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 5, 2018 |
| B. Riley Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 25, 2018 |
| B. Riley FBR | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 25, 2018 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 23, 2018 |
| B. Riley | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 27, 2018 |
| FBR Capital | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 27, 2017 |
| Tigress Financial | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 27, 2017 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 26, 2017 |
| Telsey Advisory Group | Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 3, 2017 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 15, 2016 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Sell | Upgrade | Dec 5, 2016 |
| JMP Securities | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Jul 28, 2016 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 6, 2016 |
| CLSA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 12, 2016 |
| Brean Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 10, 2015 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 21, 2014 |
| Craig-Hallum | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 23, 2014 |
| ISI Group | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 21, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $320.16. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $367 | $321.32 | +14.6% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $379 | $328.48 | +18.4% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Richard Clarke | $320 | $316.56 | -0.0% | May 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $319 | $315.92 | -0.4% | May 12, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $371 | $323.98 | +15.9% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $312 | $315.74 | -2.5% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $353 | $323.34 | +10.3% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $365 | $323.34 | +14.0% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $335.07 | +9.3% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $345 | $333.67 | +7.8% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $363 | $328.91 | +13.4% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Stephen Grambling | $318 | $321.31 | -0.7% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $315.96 | +12.4% | Feb 22, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $307 | $326.1 | -4.1% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $332.91 | +9.3% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $321 | $325.13 | +0.3% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $373 | $329.82 | +16.5% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Jefferies | David Katz | $339 | $326.55 | +5.9% | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $325 | $296.46 | +1.5% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $306 | $301.86 | -4.4% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $309 | $301.86 | -3.5% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $304 | $287.73 | -5.0% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $317 | $280.05 | -1.0% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $253 | $271.08 | -21.0% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $287 | $275.06 | -10.4% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $255 | $275.06 | -20.4% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Lizzie Dove | $285 | $275.06 | -11.0% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $297 | $271.99 | -7.2% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $289 | $265.96 | -9.7% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $275 | $258.23 | -14.1% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $288 | $258.91 | -10.0% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $288 | $266.41 | -10.0% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $273.29 | -6.3% | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Stephen Grambling | $286 | $274.34 | -10.7% | Jul 15, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ben Chaiken | $263 | $258.74 | -17.9% | Feb 5, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Daniel Politzer | $240 | $258.74 | -25.0% | Feb 4, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $220 | $233.5 | -31.3% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Carlo Santarelli | $200 | $233.5 | -37.5% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Duane Pfennigwerth | $240 | $238.81 | -25.0% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $244 | $238.47 | -23.8% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Michael Bellisario | $235 | $237.49 | -26.6% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Lizzie Dove | $245 | $220.38 | -23.5% | Sep 18, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Richard Clarke | $261 | $217.08 | -18.5% | Aug 29, 2024 |
| Macquarie | Chad Beynon | $208 | $205.07 | -35.0% | Aug 7, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $228 | $228.19 | -28.8% | Jul 17, 2024 |
| Argus Research | John Staszak | $260 | $228.47 | -18.8% | Jul 16, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $209 | $203.57 | -34.7% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Macquarie | Chad Beynon | $205 | $203.86 | -36.0% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Carlo Santarelli | $185 | $203.98 | -42.2% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Michael Bellisario | $215 | $204.7 | -32.8% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $216 | $198.82 | -32.5% | Apr 19, 2024 |
| HSBC | Meredith Jensen | $254 | $210.37 | -20.7% | Apr 3, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Jeffrey Donnelly | $200 | $210.51 | -37.5% | Mar 20, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Diane Pfenningwerth | $210 | $210.51 | -34.4% | Mar 20, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Michael Bellisario | $210 | $204.66 | -34.4% | Mar 15, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $168 | $147.44 | -47.5% | Mar 9, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $167 | $145.82 | -47.8% | Feb 7, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $148 | $147.98 | -53.8% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $139 | $136.05 | -56.6% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $148 | $138.11 | -53.8% | Dec 14, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $147 | $140.28 | -54.1% | Dec 5, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $171 | $141.42 | -46.6% | Dec 5, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $62 | $140.65 | -80.6% | Nov 15, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $159 | $129.83 | -50.3% | Aug 3, 2022 |
| UBS | Robin Farley | $157 | $132.85 | -51.0% | May 17, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $144 | $145.38 | -55.0% | May 4, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $143 | $157.02 | -55.3% | May 2, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Dori Kesten | $160 | $150.67 | -50.0% | Feb 26, 2022 |
| Macquarie | Chad Beynon | $138 | $150.41 | -56.9% | Feb 20, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Thomas Allen | $135 | $143.39 | -57.8% | Jan 30, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Richard Hightower | $155 | $144.52 | -51.6% | Jan 18, 2022 |
| Bernstein | Richard Clarke | $161 | $148.61 | -49.7% | Jan 10, 2022 |
| Argus Research | John Staszak | $178 | $155.02 | -44.4% | Dec 28, 2021 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Daniel Adam | $142 | $139.59 | -55.6% | Dec 2, 2021 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $139 | $146.04 | -56.6% | Oct 28, 2021 |
Track every rating change on HLT the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-2.7%
Event window
SPY move
-0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+4.1%
Up to 20 sessions
HLTSPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Compared to Q4 2025, where full-year 2026 RevPAR guidance was set at 1-2%, Q1 results came in above the top end of that range, prompting management to raise the full-year RevPAR outlook to 2-3%. The development pipeline grew from over 520,000 rooms to a record 527,000 rooms. AI partnerships expanded from exploratory collaborations (OpenAI, Google, Jet) to a concrete product launch: the Anthropic-powered Hilton AI Planner. The prior quarter's planned brand launches — Apartment Collection and Outset Collection — are now rolling out, and new Waldorf Astoria openings in Morocco, London, and Malaysia extend the luxury footprint. Middle East conflict, noted as a risk factor in Q4, is now explicitly incorporated into guidance scenarios.
Guidance delta
Full-year 2026 system-wide RevPAR guidance raised from 1-2% to 2-3%, with management noting a range of scenarios around Middle East conflict impact. Net unit growth target of 6-7% reaffirmed. Capital return target of $3.5 billion for 2026 reaffirmed, with $860 million already returned in Q1. Prior-quarter adjusted EBITDA guidance of $4.0-$4.04 billion and EPS of $8.65-$8.77 were set in Q4 2025; management did not revise these in the Q1 transcript analysis.
Key takeaways
- Q1 system-wide RevPAR grew 3.6% YoY, beating the top end of prior guidance and driving adjusted EBITDA up 13% to $901 million.
- 131 new hotels opened in the quarter, with luxury and lifestyle brands accounting for 20% of openings.
- Full-year RevPAR guidance raised from 1-2% to 2-3%, with scenarios factoring in Middle East conflict impact.
- Capital returns of $860 million in Q1, on track for $3.5 billion in buybacks and dividends for the full year.
- Record development pipeline of 527,000 rooms, representing approximately 20% of global hotel rooms under construction.
Management priorities
- Continue aggressive hotel openings, especially in luxury and lifestyle brands.
- Roll out the Hilton AI Planner and deepen AI partnerships with Google, ChatGPT, and Anthropic.
- Pursue new brand signings (Motto, Tapestry) and expand in emerging markets including India and APAC.
- Maintain a capital-light, fee-based business model while increasing shareholder returns.
- Target 6-7% net unit growth for the full year.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-29T11:31:30.222493+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T11:31:30.218495+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.