The Home Depot, Inc. · HD · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Home Depot Maintains FY2026 View as Pro Investments Expand

The call provides evidence for a measured constructive view: Pro-market share gains, AI-enabled tools, delivery improvements and footprint expansion support demand, while maintained guidance and identified housing, consumer and margin risks argue against an unqualified growth conclusion.

Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical $295.86B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $2.72 Consensus $2.53
EPS surprise +7.5% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $38.20B Consensus $38.09B
Revenue surprise +0.3% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +2.0% Event window
SPY move +0.7% Same window
Abnormal move +1.3% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.4× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -13.9% Up to 20 sessions
HDSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, management moved from a lowered outlook to maintained FY2026 guidance. The emphasis also shifted toward executing the Pro ecosystem—AI tools, delivery reliability, trade credit, digital integration and cross-selling—while GMS integration and consumer and housing pressures remained central risks.

Guidance delta

Guidance sentiment improved from the prior quarter's lowered outlook to maintained FY2026 guidance: sales growth of 2.5%–4.5%, comparable sales growth of flat to 2%, and operating margin of about 12.4%–12.6%.

Key takeaways

  • Management maintained FY2026 guidance while emphasizing Pro-market share gains and ecosystem investments.
  • AI project takeoff and list-builder tools, delivery tracking and trade-credit initiatives support the Pro strategy.
  • GMS integration, housing affordability, consumer uncertainty and potential tariff exposure remain key constraints.

Management priorities

  • Roll out AI project takeoff and list-builder applications for Pro customers.
  • Improve delivery reliability through real-time tracking and handheld driver devices.
  • Expand the store and SRS footprint while cross-selling across Home Depot, SRS and GMS.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
HD REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 2 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '24 estimate $35B Q4 '24 actual $35B, beat Q1 '25 estimate $37B Q1 '25 actual $36B, miss Q2 '25 estimate $43B Q2 '25 actual $43B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $45B Q2 '26 actual $45B, miss Q3 '26 estimate $41B Q3 '26 actual $41B, beat Q4 '26 estimate $38B Q4 '26 actual $38B, beat Q1 '27 estimate $42B Q1 '27 actual $42B, beat Q2 '27 estimate $47B Q2 '27 actual $48B, beat Q3 '27 estimate $43B Q4 '27 estimate $39B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy61 ratings
Bullish3760.6%
Neutral2032.8%
Bearish46.6%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$291.67Current
$250Low
$387.21Average
$497High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 24, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Bernstein Market Perform Market PerformMaintainSep 9, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainAug 19, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainAug 19, 2026
RBC Capital Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainAug 19, 2026
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 19, 2026
Show 57 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $291.67. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
BernsteinZhihan Ma$354$347.67 +21.4%Aug 19, 2026
RBC CapitalSteven Shemesh$342$347.75 +17.3%Aug 19, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$420$348.09 +44.0%Aug 19, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$373$337.49 +27.9%Aug 19, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesDavid Bellinger$390$337.49 +33.7%Aug 19, 2026
See 137 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

The Home Depot, Inc. operates as a prominent retailer specializing in home renovation and improvement. Through its expansive network of "The Home Depot" stores, it furnishes consumers with an extensive array of goods, including building materials, home enhancement products, lawn and garden supplies, decorative items, and facilities maintenance, repair, and operational (MRO) supplies. In addition to selling products, the company extends professional installation services for key home features like flooring, cabinetry (including makeovers), countertops, furnaces and central air conditioning systems, and window replacements. Customers can also access tool and equipment rental options.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-24T17:50:54.454284+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-24T17:50:54.451258+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-24. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.