The Home Depot, Inc. · HD · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025

Home Depot lowers FY2025 outlook as GMS adds growth and margin pressure

The quarter weakened the near-term earnings case: management lowered FY2025 guidance and expects EPS to decline about 5%–6%. The longer-term case rests on Pro tools, digital fulfillment, and GMS/SRS expansion, but the supplied analysis also highlights housing softness, storm-sensitive demand and acquisition-related margin pressure.

Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical $283.67B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $3.74 Consensus $3.83
EPS surprise -2.3% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $41.35B Consensus $41.17B
Revenue surprise +0.5% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -6.0% Event window
SPY move -0.8% Same window
Abnormal move -5.2% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.3× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +6.0% Up to 20 sessions
HDSPY benchmark

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What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, management shifted from maintained guidance and a confident tone to lowered guidance and a cautious tone. GMS moved from pending to a contributor, while AI-enabled Pro tools and the acquisition's margin impact became more prominent.

Guidance delta

Management lowered FY2025 guidance: sales growth remains near 3%, while EPS is expected to decline about 5%–6%.

Key takeaways

  • Q3 sales rose 2.8% year over year but missed internal expectations as storm-related demand was absent.
  • The GMS acquisition adds sales and specialty-building-products reach, while contributing roughly 20–40 basis points of margin pressure.
  • Management is using Pro tools, including AI-powered blueprint takeoffs, to pursue contractor share gains.
  • Digital sales and faster fulfillment remain growth initiatives, but housing softness and consumer uncertainty persist.

Management priorities

  • Roll out project-planning and AI-powered blueprint takeoff tools for Pros.
  • Continue investment in direct fulfillment centers and delivery speed.
  • Expand SRS and GMS organically by about 40–50 branches per year.
  • Pursue cross-selling across retail and wholesale platforms.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
HD EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 2 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '24 estimate $2.77 Q4 '24 actual $2.82, beat Q1 '25 estimate $3.60 Q1 '25 actual $3.63, beat Q2 '25 estimate $4.49 Q2 '25 actual $4.60, beat Q2 '26 estimate $4.72 Q2 '26 actual $4.68, miss Q3 '26 estimate $3.83 Q3 '26 actual $3.74, miss Q4 '26 estimate $2.53 Q4 '26 actual $2.72, beat Q1 '27 estimate $3.41 Q1 '27 actual $3.43, beat Q2 '27 estimate $4.73 Q2 '27 actual $4.92, beat Q3 '27 estimate $3.96 Q4 '27 estimate $2.85
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy61 ratings
Bullish3760.6%
Neutral2032.8%
Bearish46.6%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$284.49Current
$250Low
$387.21Average
$497High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Bernstein Market Perform Market PerformMaintainSep 9, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainAug 19, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainAug 19, 2026
RBC Capital Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainAug 19, 2026
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 19, 2026
Show 57 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $284.49. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
BernsteinZhihan Ma$354$347.67 +24.4%Aug 19, 2026
RBC CapitalSteven Shemesh$342$347.75 +20.2%Aug 19, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$420$348.09 +47.6%Aug 19, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$373$337.49 +31.1%Aug 19, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesDavid Bellinger$390$337.49 +37.1%Aug 19, 2026
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

The Home Depot, Inc. operates as a prominent retailer specializing in home renovation and improvement. Through its expansive network of "The Home Depot" stores, it furnishes consumers with an extensive array of goods, including building materials, home enhancement products, lawn and garden supplies, decorative items, and facilities maintenance, repair, and operational (MRO) supplies. In addition to selling products, the company extends professional installation services for key home features like flooring, cabinetry (including makeovers), countertops, furnaces and central air conditioning systems, and window replacements. Customers can also access tool and equipment rental options.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-01T03:26:04.427419+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-01T03:26:04.425600+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.