The Home Depot, Inc. · HD · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025

Home Depot sees smaller-project demand and Pro momentum

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but qualified view: demand for smaller projects, logistics improvements, and Pro ecosystem expansion provide operating support, while large-remodel recovery, macro conditions, tariffs, FX, and acquisition execution remain key tests.

Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical $282.03B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $4.68 Consensus $4.72
EPS surprise -0.8% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $45.28B Consensus $45.41B
Revenue surprise -0.3% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +3.2% Event window
SPY move -0.5% Same window
Abnormal move +3.7% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.4× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +2.4% Up to 20 sessions
HDSPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about HD FY2025 Q2

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Why did HD rise 3.2% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q2?What changed in HD's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for HD after FY2025 Q2 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior analysis, the current quarter adds reported momentum in smaller projects, faster delivery, and the Pro ecosystem; SRS is described as completed and GMS as pending. Guidance sentiment remained maintained, while capex outlook moved from increasing to stable.

Guidance delta

Maintained: FY2025 sales and margin outlook was reaffirmed, despite macroeconomic uncertainty.

Key takeaways

  • Q2 sales grew 4.9% to $45.3 billion, while comparable sales rose 1%, according to the supplied transcript analysis.
  • Management highlighted stronger smaller-project demand, faster delivery, AI-enabled fulfillment, and continued Pro ecosystem expansion.
  • SRS is completed and GMS is pending; the acquisitions are central to expanding specialty-trade distribution.
  • The current analysis describes a confident tone and maintained guidance, consistent with the prior quarter.

Management priorities

  • Integrate GMS into the SRS platform and expand the Pro distribution network.
  • Scale trade-credit availability to all Pro customers for in-store purchases later this year.
  • Continue investing in AI and machine learning to improve delivery speed and fulfillment efficiency.
  • Maintain capital expenditures at roughly 2.5% of sales for store upgrades, distribution centers, and distribution assets.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
HD EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 2 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '24 estimate $2.77 Q4 '24 actual $2.82, beat Q1 '25 estimate $3.60 Q1 '25 actual $3.63, beat Q2 '25 estimate $4.49 Q2 '25 actual $4.60, beat Q2 '26 estimate $4.72 Q2 '26 actual $4.68, miss Q3 '26 estimate $3.83 Q3 '26 actual $3.74, miss Q4 '26 estimate $2.53 Q4 '26 actual $2.72, beat Q1 '27 estimate $3.41 Q1 '27 actual $3.43, beat Q2 '27 estimate $4.73 Q2 '27 actual $4.92, beat Q3 '27 estimate $3.96 Q4 '27 estimate $2.85
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy61 ratings
Bullish3760.6%
Neutral2032.8%
Bearish46.6%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$282.85Current
$250Low
$387.21Average
$497High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 4, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Bernstein Market Perform Market PerformMaintainSep 9, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainAug 19, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainAug 19, 2026
RBC Capital Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainAug 19, 2026
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 19, 2026
Show 57 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $282.85. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
BernsteinZhihan Ma$354$347.67 +25.2%Aug 19, 2026
RBC CapitalSteven Shemesh$342$347.75 +20.9%Aug 19, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$420$348.09 +48.5%Aug 19, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$373$337.49 +31.9%Aug 19, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesDavid Bellinger$390$337.49 +37.9%Aug 19, 2026
See 137 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

The Home Depot, Inc. operates as a prominent retailer specializing in home renovation and improvement. Through its expansive network of "The Home Depot" stores, it furnishes consumers with an extensive array of goods, including building materials, home enhancement products, lawn and garden supplies, decorative items, and facilities maintenance, repair, and operational (MRO) supplies. In addition to selling products, the company extends professional installation services for key home features like flooring, cabinetry (including makeovers), countertops, furnaces and central air conditioning systems, and window replacements. Customers can also access tool and equipment rental options.…

Historical context

All HD earnings
-0.1%FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026+0.9%FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026+2.0%FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Consumer Cyclical peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
NKE NIKE, Inc. FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2026 +10.0% -0.7% Nike’s performance categories grow as resets weigh on FY27 outlook
CCL Carnival Corporation & plc FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +5.9% +13.4% Carnival posts record Q3 as demand and efficiency offset fuel costs
DRI Darden Restaurants, Inc. FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 0.0% -3.0% Darden reaffirms FY2027 outlook as brands deliver mixed comp growth
AZO AutoZone, Inc. FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 +3.6% +3.3% AutoZone pairs commercial momentum with an aggressive FY2027 expansion plan
LEN-B Lennar Corporation FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 — — Lennar: Efficiency Gains Offset Housing-Market Pressures
LEN Lennar Corporation FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 — -4.1% Lennar Holds Volume Guidance as Margins Improve Despite Housing Headwinds

Latest beats and misses

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Missed on EPS

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-04T17:10:41.048910+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-04T17:10:41.046183+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-04. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.