Alphabet Inc. · GOOG · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Alphabet: AI Growth Accelerates as 2026 CapEx Rises

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: AI adoption across Search, Cloud, YouTube, Gemini Enterprise, and the Gemini app is paired with strong Cloud backlog growth and continued product expansion. The case depends on Alphabet converting demand into monetization while funding very high infrastructure spending without materially weakening margins.

Reported After market closeNASDAQCommunication Services $4116.01B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $2.82 Consensus $2.63
EPS surprise +7.2% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $113.83B Consensus $111.32B
Revenue surprise +2.3% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -0.6% Event window
SPY move -1.2% Same window
Abnormal move +0.6% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.3× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -10.0% Up to 20 sessions
GOOGSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the supplied prior-quarter analysis, the emphasis shifted toward a larger 2026 infrastructure commitment, stronger reported Cloud and backlog momentum, Gemini Enterprise and app adoption, and agentic-commerce initiatives. The current analysis also highlights compute-supply constraints and the sustainability of CapEx funding as central questions.

Guidance delta

Maintained; the supplied analysis does not identify a change in guidance sentiment.

Key takeaways

  • Gemini-related products are described as supporting double-digit growth across Search, Cloud, and YouTube.
  • Google Cloud revenue grew 48% year over year, while backlog increased 55% sequentially to $240 billion.
  • Gemini Enterprise surpassed 8 million paid seats and the Gemini app added 100 million monthly active users in Q4.
  • Alphabet projects $175–185 billion of 2026 CapEx, more than double the 2025 level.
  • The company is expanding Waymo, agentic-commerce initiatives, and AI infrastructure capacity.

Management priorities

  • Scale AI compute capacity for DeepMind and Google Cloud through 2026.
  • Expand Gemini across consumer, enterprise, Android, and cloud products.
  • Continue AI Mode advertising experiments, including direct offers and shoppable formats.
  • Roll out the Universal Commerce Protocol with retail partners.
  • Expand Waymo service into additional U.S., UK, and Japan cities.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
GOOG REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $79B Q1 '24 actual $80B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $84B Q2 '24 actual $85B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $86B Q3 '24 actual $88B, beat Q2 '25 estimate $94B Q2 '25 actual $96B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $100B Q3 '25 actual $102B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $111B Q4 '25 actual $114B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $107B Q1 '26 actual $110B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $117B Q2 '26 actual $120B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $127B Q4 '26 estimate $141B Q1 '27 estimate $137B Q2 '27 estimate $147B
Show 1 more >

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy77 ratings
Bullish6888.3%
Neutral810.4%
Bearish11.3%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$336.9Current
$115Low
$297.03Average
$515High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainJul 23, 2026
Oppenheimer Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 23, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 23, 2026
Scotiabank Sector Outperform Sector OutperformMaintainApr 30, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainFeb 12, 2026
Show 72 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $336.9. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
HSBCAnalyst unavailable$515$343.94 +52.9%Aug 14, 2026
MacquarieAnalyst unavailable$515$318.34 +52.9%Jul 24, 2026
D.A. DavidsonGil Luria$350$315.62 +3.9%Jul 23, 2026
Canaccord GenuityMaria Ripps$450$341.91 +33.6%Jul 23, 2026
Cantor FitzgeraldDeepak Mathivanan$420$341.91 +24.7%Jul 23, 2026
See 118 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Alphabet Inc. operates globally, providing a wide array of products and digital platforms to customers across the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific region, Canada, and Latin America. The company's business is organized into three primary segments: Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets. The Google Services division delivers a broad spectrum of consumer-facing offerings, which include its advertising products, the Android operating system, Chrome browser, various hardware devices, Gmail, Google Drive, Google Maps, Google Photos, Google Play, Search functionality, and YouTube.…

Historical context

All GOOG earnings

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-29T17:16:04.951814+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-29T17:16:04.948973+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-29. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.