Alphabet Inc. · GOOG · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Alphabet: AI Growth Accelerates as 2026 CapEx Rises
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: AI adoption across Search, Cloud, YouTube, Gemini Enterprise, and the Gemini app is paired with strong Cloud backlog growth and continued product expansion. The case depends on Alphabet converting demand into monetization while funding very high infrastructure spending without materially weakening margins.
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Reported versus consensusMarket reaction
event-close to next-session closeAsk FN2 about GOOG FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loadedFree account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the supplied prior-quarter analysis, the emphasis shifted toward a larger 2026 infrastructure commitment, stronger reported Cloud and backlog momentum, Gemini Enterprise and app adoption, and agentic-commerce initiatives. The current analysis also highlights compute-supply constraints and the sustainability of CapEx funding as central questions.
Guidance delta
Maintained; the supplied analysis does not identify a change in guidance sentiment.
Key takeaways
- Gemini-related products are described as supporting double-digit growth across Search, Cloud, and YouTube.
- Google Cloud revenue grew 48% year over year, while backlog increased 55% sequentially to $240 billion.
- Gemini Enterprise surpassed 8 million paid seats and the Gemini app added 100 million monthly active users in Q4.
- Alphabet projects $175–185 billion of 2026 CapEx, more than double the 2025 level.
- The company is expanding Waymo, agentic-commerce initiatives, and AI infrastructure capacity.
Management priorities
- Scale AI compute capacity for DeepMind and Google Cloud through 2026.
- Expand Gemini across consumer, enterprise, Android, and cloud products.
- Continue AI Mode advertising experiments, including direct offers and shoppable formats.
- Roll out the Universal Commerce Protocol with retail partners.
- Expand Waymo service into additional U.S., UK, and Japan cities.
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Outperform | Upgrade | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Pivotal Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 5, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 5, 2025 |
| WestPark Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 9, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 16, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 11, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 22, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Jan 31, 2024 |
| Tigress Financial | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Nov 21, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 25, 2023 |
| Roth MKM | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 24, 2023 |
| Rosenblatt | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 24, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 24, 2023 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 24, 2023 |
| Monness, Crespi, Hardt | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 24, 2023 |
| JMP Securities | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Oct 24, 2023 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 17, 2023 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 25, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 25, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 7, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 3, 2023 |
| New Street Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 30, 2023 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 29, 2023 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 28, 2023 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 27, 2023 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jun 27, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 26, 2023 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 26, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 11, 2023 |
| Societe Generale | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 30, 2022 |
| Mizuho | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 30, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 29, 2021 |
| China Renaissance | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 3, 2021 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 16, 2020 |
| Nomura Instinet | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 29, 2020 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 28, 2020 |
| CFRA | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Feb 6, 2020 |
| DZ Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 30, 2019 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 5, 2019 |
| B. Riley Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 23, 2018 |
| B. Riley FBR | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 5, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 25, 2017 |
| CLSA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 28, 2016 |
| Maxim Group | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 7, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 21, 2016 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 21, 2016 |
| Pacific Crest | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 23, 2015 |
| Atlantic Equities | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 19, 2015 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 11, 2015 |
| Monness Crespi Hardt | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 11, 2015 |
| CRT Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 23, 2015 |
| Topeka Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 17, 2014 |
| Topeka | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 17, 2014 |
| FBR Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 16, 2014 |
| Hudson Square | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 13, 2014 |
| FBN Securities | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 31, 2014 |
| Evercore Partners | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 14, 2013 |
| BGC Financial | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 19, 2013 |
| Hilliard Lyons | Neutral | Long Term Buy | Downgrade | Feb 6, 2013 |
| Oracle Investment Research | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Feb 5, 2013 |
| ThinkEquity | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 11, 2012 |
| Capstone | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 25, 2012 |
| Global Equities Research | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 17, 2012 |
| Benchmark | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 20, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $336.9. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $515 | $343.94 | +52.9% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Macquarie | Analyst unavailable | $515 | $318.34 | +52.9% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Gil Luria | $350 | $315.62 | +3.9% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Maria Ripps | $450 | $341.91 | +33.6% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Deepak Mathivanan | $420 | $341.91 | +24.7% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Barton Crockett | $393 | $341.91 | +16.7% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Jason Helfstein | $400 | $341.91 | +18.7% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| UBS | Stephen Ju | $379 | $341.91 | +12.5% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Ross Sandler | $425 | $341.91 | +26.2% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $515 | $341.91 | +52.9% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Shweta Khajuria | $460 | $341.91 | +36.5% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $430 | $370.21 | +27.6% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $445 | $353.13 | +32.1% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $416 | $357.89 | +23.5% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Ken Gawrelski | $435 | $372.58 | +29.1% | Jun 2, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Youssef Squali | $430 | $371.2 | +27.6% | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $515 | $376.43 | +52.9% | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Eric Sheridan | $450 | $384.9 | +33.6% | May 21, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Mark Kelley | $420 | $384.9 | +24.7% | May 20, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Jason Helfstein | $445 | $397.17 | +32.1% | May 15, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $371.77 | +33.6% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $425 | $367.13 | +26.2% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Jason Helfstein | $425 | $367.03 | +26.2% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Youssef Squali | $385 | $337.73 | +14.3% | Apr 22, 2026 |
| Needham | Laura Martin | $400 | $303.21 | +18.7% | Mar 13, 2026 |
| UBS | Stephen Ju | $348 | $310.78 | +3.3% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $400 | $323.46 | +18.7% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Brian Pitz | $400 | $323.75 | +18.7% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Thomas Champion | $395 | $319.39 | +17.2% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Justin Patterson | $370 | $323.02 | +9.8% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Wedbush | Scott Devitt | $370 | $323.19 | +9.8% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Mark Shmulik | $345 | $324.04 | +2.4% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Jason Helfstein | $360 | $333.34 | +6.9% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Pivotal Research | Jeffrey Wlodarczak | $420 | $333.34 | +24.7% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Justin Patterson | $360 | $333.31 | +6.9% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | $400 | $328.38 | +18.7% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Benjamin Black | $370 | $330.34 | +9.8% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Brad Erickson | $375 | $333.6 | +11.3% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $375 | $330.59 | +11.3% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $365 | $315.32 | +8.3% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Youssef Squali | $350 | $320.79 | +3.9% | Dec 5, 2025 |
| Pivotal Research | Jeffrey Wlodarczak | $400 | $318.39 | +18.7% | Dec 5, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Michael Morris | $375 | $320.12 | +11.3% | Dec 1, 2025 |
| D.A. Davidson | Gil Luria | $300 | $321.34 | -11.0% | Nov 25, 2025 |
| UBS | Stephen Ju | $306 | $283.77 | -9.2% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Deepak Mathivanan | $310 | $289.1 | -8.0% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Nat Schindler | $336 | $289.1 | -0.3% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Aaron Kessler | $330 | $289.66 | -2.0% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Justin Patterson | $330 | $289.1 | -2.0% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $335 | $289.1 | -0.6% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Barton Crockett | $279 | $289.4 | -17.2% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Jason Helfstein | $345 | $275.17 | +2.4% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Lloyd Walmsley | $325 | $275.17 | -3.5% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Brian Pitz | $340 | $275.17 | +0.9% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| HSBC | Paul Rossington | $335 | $275.17 | -0.6% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Maria Ripps | $330 | $275.17 | -2.0% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| D.A. Davidson | Gil Luria | $825 | $260.51 | +144.9% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Josh Beck | $275 | $260.95 | -18.4% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $253.79 | -11.0% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Nat Schindler | $310 | $255.54 | -8.0% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| UBS | Stephen Ju | $255 | $243.56 | -24.3% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $265 | $211.99 | -21.3% | Sep 3, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Josh Beck | $185 | $192.11 | -45.1% | Jul 22, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | AI Overviews | $220 | $178.67 | -34.7% | Jul 9, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Eric Sheridan | $220 | $170.31 | -34.7% | Jun 2, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Deepak Mathivanan | $171 | $161.47 | -49.2% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Deepak Mathivanan | $200 | $166.28 | -40.6% | Mar 19, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | Andrew Boone | $220 | $176.14 | -34.7% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Jason Helfstein | $215 | $181.41 | -36.2% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Seaport Global | Aaron Kessler | $200 | $171.14 | -40.6% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Scott Devitt | $205 | $168.34 | -39.2% | Oct 28, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Nat Schindler | $212 | $164.68 | -37.1% | Oct 11, 2024 |
| UBS | Stephen Ju | $187 | $167.42 | -44.5% | Oct 7, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Jason Helfstein | $185 | $163.64 | -45.1% | Sep 25, 2024 |
| Needham | Laura Martin | $210 | $162.03 | -37.7% | Aug 14, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Eric Sheridan | $195 | $177.71 | -42.1% | May 22, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Mark Kelley | $174 | $156 | -48.4% | Apr 16, 2024 |
| Seaport Global | Aaron Kessler | $182.5 | $70 | -45.8% | Oct 24, 2023 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Justin Patterson | $145 | $129.55 | -57.0% | Jul 26, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Ken Gawrelski | $117 | $122.67 | -65.3% | Jun 8, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Stephen Ju | $135 | $125.09 | -59.9% | May 30, 2023 |
| JMP Securities | Andrew Boone | $132 | $121.35 | -60.8% | May 24, 2023 |
| Oppenheimer | Jason Helfstein | $145 | $117.88 | -57.0% | May 11, 2023 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Barton Crockett | $132 | $104.55 | -60.8% | Apr 26, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Stephen Ju | $136 | $101.32 | -59.6% | Mar 30, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $91.47 | -62.9% | Jan 11, 2023 |
| Tigress Financial | Analyst unavailable | $160 | $88.16 | -52.5% | Jan 6, 2023 |
| New Street | Analyst unavailable | $118 | $89.7 | -65.0% | Jan 4, 2023 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $88.38 | -65.9% | Dec 22, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | James Lee | $135 | $99.65 | -59.9% | Nov 30, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $98.78 | -64.4% | Nov 15, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Benjamin Black | $120 | $94.17 | -64.4% | Nov 11, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Brad Erickson | $130 | $104.93 | -61.4% | Oct 26, 2022 |
| KeyBanc | Justin Patterson | $120 | $104.93 | -64.4% | Oct 25, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Brent Bracelin | $156 | $51.49 | -53.7% | Oct 25, 2022 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Justin Patterson | $125 | $112.54 | -62.9% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Mark Mahaney | $155.5 | $111.53 | -53.8% | Jul 14, 2022 |
| Monness | Brian White | $145 | $114.85 | -57.0% | Jul 13, 2022 |
| UBS | Lloyd Walmsley | $132.5 | $107.87 | -60.7% | Jun 20, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Eric Sheridan | $150 | $111.43 | -55.5% | Jun 11, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $155 | $107.86 | -54.0% | May 26, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Thomas Champion | $145 | $115.02 | -57.0% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | James Lee | $175 | $115.02 | -48.1% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $115.02 | -57.0% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Analyst unavailable | $165 | $115.98 | -51.0% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $170 | $116.71 | -49.5% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $163.5 | $115.61 | -51.5% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $155 | $115.43 | -54.0% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $159 | $119.51 | -52.8% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $160 | $119.51 | -52.5% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $119.51 | -46.6% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $119.51 | -55.5% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Barton Crockett | $209.15 | $119.61 | -37.9% | Apr 24, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $172.5 | $128.25 | -48.8% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $175 | $130.53 | -48.1% | Apr 20, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Scott Devitt | $175 | $143.02 | -48.1% | Feb 6, 2022 |
| Wedbush | Ygal Arounian | $190 | $143.02 | -43.6% | Feb 4, 2022 |
| Robert W. Baird | Colin Sebastian | $160 | $137.88 | -52.5% | Feb 1, 2022 |
| Guggenheim | Michael Morris | $150 | $129.24 | -55.5% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Justin Post | $173.5 | $130.09 | -48.5% | Jan 22, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | John Blackledge | $175 | $139.79 | -48.1% | Jan 17, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Brian Nowak | $150 | $146.43 | -55.5% | Oct 27, 2021 |
| Oppenheimer | Jason Helfstein | $175 | $146.43 | -48.1% | Oct 27, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAlphabet Inc. operates globally, providing a wide array of products and digital platforms to customers across the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific region, Canada, and Latin America. The company's business is organized into three primary segments: Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets. The Google Services division delivers a broad spectrum of consumer-facing offerings, which include its advertising products, the Android operating system, Chrome browser, various hardware devices, Gmail, Google Drive, Google Maps, Google Photos, Google Play, Search functionality, and YouTube.…
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-29T17:16:04.951814+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-29T17:16:04.948973+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-29. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.