Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold25 ratings
Bullish1144.0%
Neutral1248.0%
Bearish28.0%
Franco-Nevada Corporation · FNV · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025
Franco-Nevada enters 2025 with higher GEO guidance and execution risks
The supplied transcript supports a constructive operating trajectory: higher gold prices, new mine ramp-ups and recent acquisitions point to higher GEO production in 2025. The case remains dependent on execution, commodity-price assumptions and resolution of Cobre Panama and CRA-related uncertainties.
Reported Before market openNYSEBasic Materials
$44.12B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $0.89
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $304.3M
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+0.2%
Event window
SPY move
-2.7%
Same window
Abnormal move
+2.9%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+1.3%
Up to 20 sessions
FNVSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about FNV FY2024 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove FNV's +0.2% move after FY2024 Q4 earnings?What changed in FNV's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for FNV after FY2024 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Franco-Nevada moved from the prior quarter's lower GEO guidance to raised 2025 GEO guidance, while adding a larger portfolio of streams and royalties. The current analysis also emphasizes the Sibanye, Porcupine, Yanacocha and Valentine Gold contributions and keeps Cobre Panama and the CRA dispute as key risks.
Guidance delta
Raised: 2025 guidance projects a 7% increase in total GEOs, with contributions from Sibanye, Porcupine, Yanacocha, Valentine Gold and other start-ups.
Key takeaways
- Management described a strong fourth quarter and year-end results near the top of revised GEO guidance.
- More than $1.3 billion of streams, royalties and equity deals expanded the production profile by up to 95,000 GEOs per year.
- New mine and stream ramp-ups are central to the 2025 outlook, including Tocantinzinho, Sibanye Western Limb, Valentine Gold and Porcupine.
- The Cobre Panama arbitration and negotiations remain material sources of legal and operating uncertainty.
- Higher gold prices support margins, but commodity-price sensitivity can affect GEO conversion and reported guidance.
Management priorities
- Ramp up Valentine Gold and Tocantinzinho production.
- Integrate and develop the recently acquired streams and royalties.
- Advance Magino expansion and assess the Candelaria underground expansion.
- Pursue additional precious-metal and diversified-commodity opportunities.
- Manage Cobre Panama negotiations and the CRA transfer-pricing dispute.
Follow FNV with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$228.75Current
$139Low
$238.74Average
$310High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 26, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 20, 2026 |
| HC Wainwright & Co. | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 13, 2026 |
| TD Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jul 7, 2023 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 18, 2022 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 4, 2021 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jun 17, 2020 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 8, 2019 |
| GMP Securities | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 23, 2019 |
| Dundee | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 8, 2016 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 15, 2016 |
| Desjardins | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 26, 2016 |
| National Bank Financial Inc | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 13, 2016 |
| National Bank FInancial | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 13, 2016 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | May 12, 2016 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | May 11, 2016 |
| Clarksons Platou | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 16, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 14, 2015 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 29, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $228.75. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotiabank | Tanya Jakusconek | $274 | $202.32 | +19.8% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $285 | $207.5 | +24.6% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $245 | $217.58 | +7.1% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Daniel Major | $280 | $204.5 | +22.4% | Jun 30, 2026 |
| TD Securities | Analyst unavailable | $291 | $222.74 | +27.2% | May 20, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $290 | $237.11 | +26.8% | May 14, 2026 |
| H.C. Wainwright | Heiko Ihle | $305 | $265.72 | +33.3% | Mar 12, 2026 |
| H.C. Wainwright | Analyst unavailable | $285 | $250.65 | +24.6% | Feb 13, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $310 | $242.45 | +35.5% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $283 | $265.05 | +23.7% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Josh Wolfson | $250 | $202.93 | +9.3% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $228 | $203.17 | -0.3% | Dec 7, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $208.1 | +18.0% | Dec 1, 2025 |
| H.C. Wainwright | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $185.14 | -8.2% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Tanya Jakusconek | $225 | $191.21 | -1.6% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| UBS | Daniel Major | $260 | $209.43 | +13.7% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $234 | $203.78 | +2.3% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Brian MacArthur | $218 | $214.17 | -4.7% | Sep 23, 2025 |
| UBS | Daniel Major | $250 | $208.58 | +9.3% | Sep 19, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Brian MacArthur | $186 | $168.5 | -18.7% | May 28, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $145.74 | -34.4% | Mar 11, 2025 |
| TD Securities | Derick Ma | $152 | $145.74 | -33.6% | Mar 11, 2025 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lawson Winder | $139 | $124.46 | -39.2% | Oct 1, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Tanya Jakusconek | $141 | $122.71 | -38.4% | May 23, 2024 |
| H.C. Wainwright | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $133.79 | -36.6% | Aug 11, 2022 |
| H.C. Wainwright | Analyst unavailable | $144 | $126 | -37.0% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| H.C. Wainwright | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $156.09 | -21.3% | May 5, 2022 |
| Industrial Alliance Securities | Puneet Singh | $187 | $130.35 | -18.3% | Jan 21, 2022 |
| KeyBanc | Adam Josephson | $154.38 | $134.33 | -32.5% | Dec 22, 2021 |
| Desjardins | John Sclodnick | $159.15 | $150.21 | -30.4% | May 20, 2021 |
Track every rating change on FNV the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationFranco-Nevada Corporation operates as a royalty and stream company focused on precious metals in South America, Central America, Mexico, the United States, Canada, Australia, Europe, and Africa. It operates through Precious Metals, Other Mining and Energy segments. The company manages its portfolio with a focus on precious metals, such as gold, silver, and platinum group metals; and engages in the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids through a third-party marketing agent. The company was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Historical context
All FNV earningsBasic Materials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRS Carpenter Technology Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +6.9% | -20.6% | CRS: Aerospace Bookings Accelerate as Guidance Holds |
| DOW Dow Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +11.3% | +4.7% | Dow’s Q3 growth and self-help gains support a steady Q4 outlook |
| NEM Newmont Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +12.2% | -2.6% | Newmont Holds 2026 Guidance as Projects Set Up 2027 Growth |
| SCCO Southern Copper Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +6.4% | -2.1% | Southern Copper: Record Q3 results, projects advance amid execution risks |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- FCNCAFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+8.2% move
- FCNCNFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+0.2% move
- FCNCOFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+1.0% move
- FCNCPFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+1.0% move
- RDYFY2027 Q2 · October 23, 2026+24.0% EPS-0.2% move
- SLBFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+3.7% EPS+7.1% move
Missed on EPS
- INFYFY2027 Q2 · October 23, 2026-4.8% EPS-6.6% move
- BBDFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-7.7% EPS+3.0% move
- SNAFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.9% EPS-3.4% move
- SPOTFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-11.6% EPS+11.1% move
- VRSNFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-2.0% EPS-0.9% move
- HBANMFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.3% EPS+0.5% move
Get the FNV recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-02-24T00:00:08.107373+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-26T03:10:46.527835+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-26T03:10:46.524878+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-26. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.