Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy11 ratings
Bullish872.7%
Neutral327.3%
Bearish00.0%
Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V. · FMX · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
FEMSA: OXXO Recovery and Cost Discipline Lead the Outlook
FEMSA’s latest analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: recovering OXXO Mexico traffic, disciplined investment and restructuring provide operating support, while Spin profitability, Health execution and consumer conditions must improve or remain contained for the thesis to hold.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive
$42.96B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.92
Consensus $1.50
EPS surprise
-38.7%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$12.21B
Consensus $12.21B
Revenue surprise
-0.0%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+0.8%
Event window
SPY move
+0.8%
Same window
Abnormal move
-0.1%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.3×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-3.7%
Up to 20 sessions
FMXSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about FMX FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did FMX rise 0.8% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in FMX's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for FMX after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, the analysis shows a clearer OXXO Mexico recovery, lower FY2025 capex and a quantified restructuring benefit. Management also shifted Spin’s emphasis toward the payments ecosystem, postponing a full banking-license application while continuing integration with OXXO.
Guidance delta
Management’s guidance stance was maintained. The company outlined 2026 store-expansion targets, further cost reductions and continued Spin integration, without a reported change in the supplied analysis.
Key takeaways
- OXXO Mexico’s 4.4% same-store sales growth and improved traffic marked a recovery from earlier weakness.
- FEMSA expects roughly MXN 1.8bn of annualized fit-for-purpose savings by 2027 while FY2025 capex fell to MXN 45.3bn.
- Spin’s EBIT improved by almost 30% in 2025, but profitability, cash burn and licensing strategy remain watchpoints.
Management priorities
- Expand OXXO in Mexico, Brazil and Colombia while adding coffee, prepared-food and private-label offerings.
- Continue organizational simplification and headcount optimization to deliver cost savings.
- Integrate Spin with OXXO payments, remittances and QR-based services while deferring a full banking-license application.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$126.1Current
$116Low
$137.88Average
$158High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 23, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 16, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 9, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Aug 19, 2025 |
| Itau BBA | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Apr 7, 2025 |
| HSBC | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Feb 9, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 22, 2016 |
| RBC Capital | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | May 7, 2015 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $126.1. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Rodrigo Alcantara | $134 | $128.72 | +6.3% | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Banco Santander | Analyst unavailable | $130 | $119.92 | +3.1% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $125.75 | +19.0% | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $138 | $127.73 | +9.4% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $130 | $129.01 | +3.1% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $139 | $121.18 | +10.2% | May 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $119.97 | -0.9% | May 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theurer | $116 | $111.44 | -8.0% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $94.36 | -16.7% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| UBS | Rodrigo Alcantara | $111 | $92.69 | -12.0% | Sep 19, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $107 | $89.89 | -15.1% | Jul 31, 2025 |
| UBS | Rodrigo Alcantara | $115 | $101.5 | -8.8% | Jul 10, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ricardo Alves | $138 | $98.18 | +9.4% | Oct 28, 2024 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theurer | $145 | $117.5 | +15.0% | Jul 15, 2024 |
| HSBC | Carlos Laboy | $158 | $141.64 | +25.3% | Feb 9, 2024 |
Track every rating change on FMX the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationFomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V. (FEMSA) is a diverse multinational enterprise. Its operations include acting as a key bottler, marketer, and distributor of Coca-Cola trademark beverages across a wide territory encompassing Mexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay. Furthermore, FEMSA is a significant player in the retail sector, managing 20,431 OXXO convenience stores in Mexico, Colombia, Peru, Chile, and Brazil as of December 31, 2021. The company also operates 567 OXXO GAS service stations in Mexico, which supply fuels, motor oils, lubricants, and car care items.…
Historical context
All FMX earningsConsumer Defensive peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHD Church & Dwight Co., Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +2.2% | +1.2% | Church & Dwight raises sales outlook after strong Q3 organic growth |
| CL Colgate-Palmolive Company | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +4.8% | +2.3% | Colgate-Palmolive: Broad Growth and Margin Expansion in Q3 |
| MDLZ Mondelez International, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +10.2% | +3.9% | Mondelez cites volume growth, innovation and productivity as key levers |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CHDFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+2.2% EPS+1.2% move
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- FRTFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+3.9% EPS-1.1% move
- CVXFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+8.4% EPS+1.8% move
- BTSGFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+14.2% EPS+11.1% move
- EXCFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+10.4% EPS+0.5% move
Missed on EPS
- GLPIFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-11.5% EPS-1.3% move
- LYBFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-1.2% EPS+5.0% move
- CCJFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-101.4% EPS-7.9% move
- VALEFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-24.6% EPS+1.9% move
- DLR-PLFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
- DLR-PKFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
Get the FMX recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-01T02:50:41.134311+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-01T02:50:41.131455+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.