Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy17 ratings
Bullish1376.5%
Neutral423.5%
Bearish00.0%
Ferguson plc · FERG · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2025
Ferguson’s growth broadens as HVAC and Waterworks offset housing softness
The latest analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: Ferguson is broadening growth through HVAC, Waterworks, large capital projects, acquisitions, and Ferguson Home, while residential softness and margin uncertainty argue against treating demand as uniformly resilient.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$42.96B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$3.48
Consensus $3.01
EPS surprise
+15.6%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$8.50B
Consensus $8.40B
Revenue surprise
+1.2%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+7.9%
Event window
SPY move
-0.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
+8.1%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+3.8%
Up to 20 sessions
FERGSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about FERG FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did FERG rise 7.9% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in FERG's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for FERG after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, management’s guidance sentiment moved from raised to maintained. The current analysis emphasizes four completed acquisitions, a broader HVAC and Waterworks footprint, the Ferguson Home rollout, and a fiscal year-end shift to December 31.
Guidance delta
Management maintained calendar 2025 guidance for mid-single-digit revenue growth and a 9.2%-9.6% operating margin.
Key takeaways
- Q4 growth and operating-profit expansion were led by HVAC, Waterworks, large capital projects, and Ferguson Home.
- Four acquisitions expanded the company’s HVAC and water-market footprint.
- The setup remains execution-dependent: management maintained guidance while highlighting residential softness and margin risks.
Management priorities
- Invest $300-$350 million in capex across HVAC, Waterworks, and large-project capabilities.
- Complete the remaining dual-trade counter conversions and scale Ferguson Home and digital commerce.
- Continue bolt-on acquisitions while returning surplus capital and maintaining low leverage.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$223.33Current
$140Low
$264.59Average
$325High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 2, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Zelman & Assoc | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 26, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 2, 2025 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 9, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 12, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Underperform | Upgrade | Jan 8, 2025 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 11, 2024 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $223.33. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $295 | $223.23 | +32.1% | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $261 | $242.62 | +16.9% | Aug 18, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $290 | $253.76 | +29.9% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $256 | $259.61 | +14.6% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $288 | $263.78 | +29.0% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Connor Cerniglia | $325 | $253.78 | +45.5% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $288 | $263.78 | +29.0% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $313 | $263.78 | +40.2% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Suhasini Varanasi | $265 | $228.92 | +18.7% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $297 | $246.53 | +33.0% | May 8, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $281 | $255.36 | +25.8% | May 6, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $258.03 | +34.3% | Feb 25, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $300 | $261.85 | +34.3% | Feb 24, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Mike Dahl | $271 | $261.79 | +21.3% | Feb 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $278 | $246.1 | +24.5% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Mike Dahl | $247 | $229.42 | +10.6% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $246 | $229.8 | +10.2% | Dec 11, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Mike Dahl | $243 | $230.11 | +8.8% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| UBS | John Lovallo | $220 | $226.02 | -1.5% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $265 | $226.02 | +18.7% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Connor Cerniglia | $288 | $226.02 | +29.0% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $267 | $226.02 | +19.6% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $289 | $251.54 | +29.4% | Dec 2, 2025 |
| Vertical Research | Adam Baumgarten | $291.99 | $236.94 | +30.7% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $273 | $226.74 | +22.2% | Sep 18, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $262 | $224.48 | +17.3% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Sam Reid | $275 | $231.54 | +23.1% | Sep 16, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $231.54 | +0.7% | Sep 16, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $189 | $155.81 | -15.4% | Mar 12, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $189 | $155.81 | -15.4% | Mar 12, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $190 | $156.98 | -14.9% | Mar 12, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $155.81 | -14.9% | Mar 12, 2025 |
| Berenberg Bank | Harry Goad | $240 | $193.67 | +7.5% | Dec 11, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Scitt Scgbeeberger | $234 | $196.16 | +4.8% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $230 | $200.09 | +3.0% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $245 | $207.06 | +9.7% | Sep 18, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Anthony Pettinari | $221 | $207.06 | -1.0% | Sep 18, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Mike Dahl | $219 | $207.06 | -1.9% | Sep 18, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Arnaud Lehmann | $185 | $207.06 | -17.2% | Sep 18, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $225 | $207.06 | +0.7% | Sep 18, 2024 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $229 | $195.51 | +2.5% | Jul 12, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Mike Dahl | $211 | $196.96 | -5.5% | Jun 5, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $244 | $205.87 | +9.3% | Mar 14, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Keith Hughes | $140 | $110.72 | -37.3% | Jun 16, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $165 | $131.35 | -26.1% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $194 | $138.91 | -13.1% | Apr 22, 2022 |
Track every rating change on FERG the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationFerguson plc operates as a major supplier of plumbing, heating, and related industrial products throughout the United States and Canada. The company serves a diverse client base, providing essential solutions for residential, commercial, civil/infrastructure, and industrial projects. Its extensive product range encompasses core plumbing and heating supplies, such as pipes, valves, fittings, water heaters, and a variety of kitchen and bathroom fixtures and appliances. Beyond these essentials, Ferguson also provides heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration (HVAC/R) equipment, as well as fire sprinkler systems and associated components. The company's offerings further extend to specialized water management products like water meters, irrigation and drainage systems, geosynthetics, and stormwater control solutions.…
Historical context
All FERG earningsIndustrials peers this season
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTAS Cintas Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.0% | -3.4% | Cintas raises FY2027 guidance as Q1 growth broadens |
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| CPRT Copart, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | -8.7% | -2.6% | Copart pairs international growth with ACV investment amid higher costs |
| SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +19.2% | +5.9% | Sunbelt raises FY27 outlook as specialty rental demand accelerates |
| FRO Frontline Plc | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.0% | +1.0% | Frontline posts a record quarter as tanker rates remain elevated |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the FERG recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-02T23:06:07.922252+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-02T23:06:07.919495+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-02. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.