Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy17 ratings
Bullish1376.5%
Neutral423.5%
Bearish00.0%
Ferguson plc · FERG · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2024
Ferguson pairs resilient margins with cautious FY25 outlook
The results provide partial support for a resilient-demand thesis: margins, cash flow, acquisitions, and project-related demand remained constructive, but FY25 guidance and management's cautious tone show that deflation, SG&A, housing, and project timing could limit earnings growth.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$42.67B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.98
Consensus $2.85
EPS surprise
+4.6%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$7.95B
Consensus $8.01B
Revenue surprise
-0.8%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+5.0%
Event window
SPY move
+0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
+4.9%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-3.4%
Up to 20 sessions
FERGSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about FERG FY2024 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did FERG rise 5.0% after beating EPS estimates in FY2024 Q4?What changed in FERG's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for FERG after FY2024 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, Ferguson shifted from a broadly maintained FY24 outlook to a FY25 framework calling for low-single-digit revenue growth and a 9.0%-9.5% operating-margin range. The company also described higher FY25 capex, continued acquisition activity, and a larger addressable market for major capital projects.
Guidance delta
FY25 guidance points to low-single-digit revenue growth and a 9.0%-9.5% operating-margin range, with SG&A pressure expected to be the main margin driver; prior guidance was broadly maintained.
Key takeaways
- Q4 revenue grew 1.4% to $7.9 billion despite roughly 2% commodity deflation.
- Management emphasized dual-trade plumbing and HVAC, large capital projects, and automation as growth levers.
- Ten bolt-on acquisitions added roughly $400 million of annualized revenue, while FY25 margin guidance reflects SG&A pressure.
Management priorities
- Invest $400-$450 million in FY25 capex for distribution, automation, and digital tools.
- Expand dual-trade plumbing and HVAC offerings and the branch network.
- Pursue bolt-on acquisitions and target large capital projects in data centers, power generation, and infrastructure.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$220.04Current
$140Low
$263.87Average
$325High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 11, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Zelman & Assoc | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 26, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 2, 2025 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 9, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 12, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Underperform | Upgrade | Jan 8, 2025 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 11, 2024 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $220.04. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $286 | $217.49 | +30.0% | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Melius Research | Analyst unavailable | $252 | $222.93 | +14.5% | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $295 | $223.23 | +34.1% | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $261 | $242.62 | +18.6% | Aug 18, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $290 | $253.76 | +31.8% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $256 | $259.61 | +16.3% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $288 | $263.78 | +30.9% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Connor Cerniglia | $325 | $253.78 | +47.7% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $288 | $263.78 | +30.9% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $313 | $263.78 | +42.2% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Suhasini Varanasi | $265 | $228.92 | +20.4% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $297 | $246.53 | +35.0% | May 8, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $281 | $255.36 | +27.7% | May 6, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $258.03 | +36.3% | Feb 25, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $300 | $261.85 | +36.3% | Feb 24, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Mike Dahl | $271 | $261.79 | +23.2% | Feb 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $278 | $246.1 | +26.3% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Mike Dahl | $247 | $229.42 | +12.3% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $246 | $229.8 | +11.8% | Dec 11, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Mike Dahl | $243 | $230.11 | +10.4% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| UBS | John Lovallo | $220 | $226.02 | -0.0% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $265 | $226.02 | +20.4% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Connor Cerniglia | $288 | $226.02 | +30.9% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $267 | $226.02 | +21.3% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $289 | $251.54 | +31.3% | Dec 2, 2025 |
| Vertical Research | Adam Baumgarten | $291.99 | $236.94 | +32.7% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $273 | $226.74 | +24.1% | Sep 18, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $262 | $224.48 | +19.1% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Sam Reid | $275 | $231.54 | +25.0% | Sep 16, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $231.54 | +2.3% | Sep 16, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $189 | $155.81 | -14.1% | Mar 12, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $189 | $155.81 | -14.1% | Mar 12, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $190 | $156.98 | -13.7% | Mar 12, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $155.81 | -13.7% | Mar 12, 2025 |
| Berenberg Bank | Harry Goad | $240 | $193.67 | +9.1% | Dec 11, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Scitt Scgbeeberger | $234 | $196.16 | +6.3% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $230 | $200.09 | +4.5% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $245 | $207.06 | +11.3% | Sep 18, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Anthony Pettinari | $221 | $207.06 | +0.4% | Sep 18, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Mike Dahl | $219 | $207.06 | -0.5% | Sep 18, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Arnaud Lehmann | $185 | $207.06 | -15.9% | Sep 18, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $225 | $207.06 | +2.3% | Sep 18, 2024 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $229 | $195.51 | +4.1% | Jul 12, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Mike Dahl | $211 | $196.96 | -4.1% | Jun 5, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $244 | $205.87 | +10.9% | Mar 14, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Keith Hughes | $140 | $110.72 | -36.4% | Jun 16, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $165 | $131.35 | -25.0% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $194 | $138.91 | -11.8% | Apr 22, 2022 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationFerguson plc operates as a major supplier of plumbing, heating, and related industrial products throughout the United States and Canada. The company serves a diverse client base, providing essential solutions for residential, commercial, civil/infrastructure, and industrial projects. Its extensive product range encompasses core plumbing and heating supplies, such as pipes, valves, fittings, water heaters, and a variety of kitchen and bathroom fixtures and appliances. Beyond these essentials, Ferguson also provides heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration (HVAC/R) equipment, as well as fire sprinkler systems and associated components. The company's offerings further extend to specialized water management products like water meters, irrigation and drainage systems, geosynthetics, and stormwater control solutions.…
Historical context
All FERG earningsIndustrials peers this season
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| CPRT Copart, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | -8.7% | -2.6% | Copart pairs international growth with ACV investment amid higher costs |
| SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +19.2% | +5.9% | Sunbelt raises FY27 outlook as specialty rental demand accelerates |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-10-17T05:10:49.140638+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-11T16:20:42.404644+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-11T16:20:42.401562+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-11. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.