FedEx Corporation · FDX · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2024

FedEx narrows EPS outlook as mix pressure tests its cost plan

FedEx’s efficiency program and network redesign provide a potential earnings support, but near-term demand weakness, lower-yield mix and execution questions have weakened the outlook.

Reported After market closeNYSEIndustrials $70.70B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $3.60 Consensus $4.76
EPS surprise -24.4% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $21.58B Consensus $21.83B
Revenue surprise -1.2% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -15.2% Event window
SPY move -0.5% Same window
Abnormal move -14.8% Stock minus SPY
Volume 15.1× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +7.8% Up to 20 sessions
FDXSPY benchmark

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What changed

The quarter showed a shift toward lower-yield deferred services, while Q1 DRIVE savings of $390 million came in below the company’s internal timing target. Management narrowed FY25 adjusted EPS guidance to $20-$21 but continued to describe the broader cost and network transformation plans as on track.

Guidance delta

FY25 adjusted EPS guidance narrowed to $20-$21 from the prior $20-$22 range.

Key takeaways

  • Lower-yield deferred services pressured revenue and margins as U.S. domestic demand weakened.
  • DRIVE delivered $390 million of Q1 savings; management remained on track for $2.2 billion in FY25 savings.
  • Network 2.0, Tricolor and AI-enabled routing tools remain central to the profitability plan.
  • Pricing actions, including the 5.9% GRI and new demand and fuel surcharges, are intended to improve yield.

Management priorities

  • Continue the quarterly DRIVE savings ramp toward the FY25 target.
  • Expand Network 2.0 across the United States and Canada and continue the Tricolor air-network redesign.
  • Scale the Shipment Eligibility Orchestrator and Hold-to-Match tools.
  • Expand the Nimble alliance and its AI-enabled fulfillment capabilities.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
FDX REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q3 '24 estimate $22B Q3 '24 actual $22B, miss Q4 '24 estimate $22B Q4 '24 actual $22B, beat Q1 '25 estimate $22B Q1 '25 actual $22B, miss Q4 '25 estimate $22B Q4 '25 actual $22B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $22B Q1 '26 actual $22B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $23B Q2 '26 actual $24B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $23B Q3 '26 actual $24B, beat Q4 '26 estimate $23B Q4 '26 actual $25B, beat Q1 '27 estimate $23B Q2 '27 estimate $25B Q3 '27 estimate $22B Q4 '27 estimate $24B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy47 ratings
Bullish2859.6%
Neutral1634.0%
Bearish36.4%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$298.72Current
$140Low
$284.64Average
$479High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 25, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainOct 7, 2026
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainOct 7, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 5, 2026
Evercore ISI Group In Line In LineMaintainSep 28, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainJun 24, 2026
Show 43 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $298.72. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$140$289.65 -53.1%Sep 29, 2026
Evercore ISIJonathan Chappell$350$314.13 +17.2%Sep 9, 2026
Raymond JamesPatrick Tyler Brown$330$331.41 +10.5%Aug 28, 2026
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$165$329.44 -44.8%Jun 26, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$365$316.83 +22.2%Jun 25, 2026
See 139 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

FedEx Corporation is a prominent global entity that delivers an extensive array of services encompassing transportation, e-commerce solutions, and diverse business support, catering to clients both within the United States and across international borders. Its operational structure is divided into several key segments: The FedEx Express division specializes in expedited shipping, offering rapid package and freight delivery, crucial time-sensitive logistics, and comprehensive cross-border, technological, and e-commerce transportation services. FedEx Ground focuses on reliable, scheduled delivery services for both commercial clients and individual households.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-10-17T05:10:49.140638+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-25T07:40:42.562738+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-25T07:40:42.559943+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-25. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.