Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold30 ratings
Bullish1136.7%
Neutral1756.7%
Bearish26.6%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Fastenal Company · FAST · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
Fastenal posts strong growth, but tariff and margin risks remain
The quarter supports a constructive operating-growth case through share gains, contract wins, digital expansion, and fastener availability, but the evidence is tempered by tariff exposure, pricing execution, inventory risk, and a negative market reaction.
Reported Before market openNASDAQIndustrials
$58.24B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.29
Consensus $0.30
EPS surprise
-2.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.13B
Consensus $2.13B
Revenue surprise
+0.1%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-7.5%
Event window
SPY move
+1.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
-9.1%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-2.3%
Up to 20 sessions
FASTSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about FAST FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did FAST fall 7.5% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in FAST's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for FAST after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Sales growth remained strong and the company continued expanding digital channels, inventory, and contract activity. The latest analysis also highlights a bonus-reset error, delayed pricing actions, tariff-related cost pressure, and a potential Q4 margin squeeze.
Guidance delta
Maintained; the supplied analysis does not identify a reported guidance change.
Key takeaways
- Management described double-digit sales growth driven by share gains, fastener expansion, digital channels, and contract wins.
- Digital channels accounted for 61.3% of total sales, while fastener inventory expansion supported availability and margin.
- Pricing contributed to growth, but tariff uncertainty, delayed pricing actions, and potential cost pressure remain central risks.
- The reported EPS result was slightly below the supplied estimate while revenue was slightly above it; the stock's event-session reaction lagged the benchmark.
Management priorities
- Expand fastener inventory to improve service levels and ROIC.
- Relaunch fastenal.com and continue investing in FMI, automation, and IT.
- Pursue national-account contracts and on-site programs.
- Manage inventory and supply-chain flexibility through tariff and inflation uncertainty.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$50.75Current
$42Low
$54.37Average
$82High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 4, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| DA Davidson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Underperform | Peer Perform | Downgrade | Nov 13, 2025 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 4, 2025 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 15, 2025 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 8, 2025 |
| William Blair | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Mar 10, 2025 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jan 21, 2025 |
| HSBC | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 15, 2022 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 14, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 14, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Underperform | Market Perform | Downgrade | Sep 8, 2020 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 27, 2020 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 21, 2020 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 21, 2020 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Feb 12, 2019 | |
| Longbow Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 4, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 13, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 19, 2017 |
| Avondale Partners | Market Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jan 12, 2017 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 27, 2015 |
| Northcoast Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 7, 2015 |
| Cleveland Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 7, 2015 |
| Edward Jones | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 28, 2014 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 12, 2012 |
| Wunderlich | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 12, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $50.75. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $54 | $51.22 | +6.4% | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Christopher Snyder | $52 | $45.36 | +2.5% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Redburn Partners | William Blunt | $55 | $46.49 | +8.4% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $46.13 | -7.4% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $47.11 | -5.4% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $48.6 | -7.4% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $46.1 | -9.4% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | Guy Hardwick | $46 | $44.73 | -9.4% | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $42 | $45.8 | -17.2% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $50 | $45.8 | -1.5% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $47.16 | -5.4% | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Chris Snyder | $45 | $47.75 | -11.3% | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $51 | $47.87 | +0.5% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Amit Mehrotra | $46 | $44.11 | -9.4% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $43 | $42.62 | -15.3% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $52 | $42 | +2.5% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $42.33 | -11.3% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $47.45 | -3.4% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brian Butler | $82 | $43.13 | +61.6% | Jul 3, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Christopher Snyder | $76 | $77.16 | +49.8% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Chris Dankert | $72 | $76.82 | +41.9% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brian Butler | $86 | $76.82 | +69.5% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $80 | $76.82 | +57.6% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Stephens | Tommy Moll | $75 | $76.82 | +47.8% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Stephens | Tommy Moll | $56 | $70.55 | +10.3% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Christopher Snyder | $72 | $65.18 | +41.9% | Sep 6, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $74 | $63.88 | +45.8% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $67 | $64.76 | +32.0% | May 29, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Chris Dankert | $66 | $70.45 | +30.0% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| HSBC | Wesley Brooks | $64 | $70.45 | +26.1% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Nigel Coe | $62 | $69.97 | +22.2% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $71 | $69.88 | +39.9% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| HSBC | Wesley Brooks | $59 | $75.9 | +16.3% | Apr 10, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $57 | $55.85 | +12.3% | Oct 11, 2023 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $50 | $52.56 | -1.5% | Apr 13, 2023 |
| UBS | Chris Snyder | $50 | $48.3 | -1.5% | Jul 26, 2022 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $48 | $47.32 | -5.4% | Jul 14, 2022 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationFastenal Company, along with its associated entities, operates as a global wholesale supplier of industrial and construction materials, with significant operations throughout North America, including the United States, Canada, and Mexico, and other international markets. Branded as Fastenal, the company offers a comprehensive range of fasteners, such as threaded bolts, nuts, screws, studs, and washers, which are vital for manufacturing processes, building developments, and equipment servicing. Beyond fasteners, its product catalog extends to diverse hardware and miscellaneous items like pins, machinery keys, concrete anchors, metal framing systems, wire ropes, strut products, and rivets, along with their related accessories.…
Historical context
All FAST earningsIndustrials peers this season
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Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the FAST recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-04T05:40:41.770919+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-04T05:40:41.768590+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-04. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.