Ford Motor Company · F · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026

Ford Q2: Trucks and subscriptions support higher EBIT outlook

Ford's Q2 analysis supports a constructive but qualified operating thesis: profitable truck and off-road demand, subscription growth, and higher guidance are positives, while supply, tariff, macro, and capital-spending risks remain important.

Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Cyclical $52.24B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.42 Consensus $0.33
EPS surprise +27.3% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $48.30B Consensus $47.24B
Revenue surprise +2.2% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +2.1% Event window
SPY move -1.5% Same window
Abnormal move +3.7% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.9× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -9.0% Up to 20 sessions
FSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, Ford's adjusted EBIT guidance was raised again to $10–11 billion, subscription users reached 1.6 million, and the Q2 analysis emphasized easing but still material Novelis-related costs alongside expanded UEV, battery-storage, and defense initiatives.

Guidance delta

Management raised full-year adjusted EBIT guidance to $10–11 billion, a $1 billion midpoint increase, while adjusted EBIT improved 17%.

Key takeaways

  • Truck, off-road, and hybrid mix remained central to margin performance.
  • Paid software subscriptions grew about 50% to 1.6 million users, adding recurring revenue.
  • Ford Energy, the UEV platform, and defense prototypes broaden the growth agenda.
  • Aluminum constraints, commodities, tariffs, and capital spending remain material risks.

Management priorities

  • Launch new F-Series and Super Duty models and begin UEV customer deliveries.
  • Scale Ford Energy toward 20 GWh and expand battery production.
  • Grow Ford Pro subscriptions and develop software features.
  • Advance defense prototypes and adjacent business opportunities.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
F REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $43B Q1 '24 actual $43B, miss Q2 '24 estimate $47B Q2 '24 actual $48B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $45B Q3 '24 actual $46B, beat Q2 '25 estimate $46B Q2 '25 actual $50B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $47B Q3 '25 actual $51B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $44B Q4 '25 actual $46B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $43B Q1 '26 actual $43B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $47B Q2 '26 actual $48B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $49B Q4 '26 estimate $47B Q1 '27 estimate $44B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold47 ratings
Bullish1838.3%
Neutral2348.9%
Bearish612.8%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$12.94Current
$10Low
$15.52Average
$29High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 24, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
BNP Paribas Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 30, 2026
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainJul 29, 2026
RBC Capital Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainJul 29, 2026
Piper Sandler Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 29, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 29, 2026
Show 42 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $12.94. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Morgan StanleyAndrew Percoco$15$14.96 +15.9%Jul 29, 2026
JefferiesAnalyst unavailable$17.5$14.35 +35.2%Jul 26, 2026
Goldman SachsMark Delaney$16$14.3 +23.6%Jun 11, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$17$14.9 +31.4%Jun 8, 2026
JefferiesPhilippe Houchois$14.5$14.93 +12.1%May 26, 2026
See 68 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Ford Motor Company is a global automotive giant, engaged in the design, production, and servicing of a broad spectrum of vehicles. Its product line encompasses Ford trucks, commercial cars and vans, and sport utility vehicles, in addition to luxury models from its Lincoln brand. The company structures its diverse operations into distinct segments: Ford Blue, Ford Model e, Ford Pro, Ford Next, and Ford Credit. Ford distributes its vehicles, service components, and accessories through a worldwide network of distributors and dealerships.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-28T23:04:05.785363+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-02T01:23:14.593608+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-23T23:20:54.226870+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-23T23:20:54.223837+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-23. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.