Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold47 ratings
Bullish1838.3%
Neutral2348.9%
Bearish612.8%
Ford Motor Company · F · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Ford Beats EPS Estimates on IEEPA Tariff Benefit, Raises Full-Year EBIT Guidance
Ford's Q1 2026 results were boosted by a one-time $1.3B IEEPA tariff benefit that powered a significant EPS beat, while operational gains in Ford Pro software services and off-road trim mix supported a modest full-year adjusted EBIT guidance raise to $8.5-10.5B. The company is investing $1B in its universal EV (UEV) platform and $1.5B in Ford Energy battery storage, targeting higher-margin EV growth, but faces over $2B in commodity cost headwinds, ongoing Novelis aluminum supply disruption, and elevated capex that pressure near-term free cash flow. The stock initially declined on an abnormal basis after the report but drifted substantially higher in subsequent weeks, though the gap between Q1 results and the modest guidance raise left analysts questioning the quality and sustainability of the beat.
Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$59.59B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.66
Consensus $0.18
EPS surprise
+260.9%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$43.25B
Consensus $42.66B
Revenue surprise
+1.4%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-1.3%
Event window
SPY move
+1.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.2×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+44.4%
Up to 20 sessions
FSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about F FY2026 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did F fall 1.3% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in F's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for F after FY2026 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Full-year adjusted EBIT guidance was raised from $8-10B to $8.5-10.5B, reflecting stronger-than-expected Q1 performance. A new end-to-end organization integrating software, digital, design, and industrial execution was announced to accelerate product rollout. Software and physical services revenue surpassed $15B and is now expected to grow approximately 8% annually through 2030. Off-road performance trims reached roughly 25% of U.S. sales. The Novelis aluminum mill restart was announced for May, with expected recovery of 150,000 units. A one-time $1.3B IEEPA tariff benefit was recognized in Q1, compared to the prior quarter's $1B government tariff receivable. Ford also disclosed plans to explore defense-related projects and deepen global partnerships including Renault.
Guidance delta
Full-year adjusted EBIT guidance was raised from $8-10B to $8.5-10.5B, a $0.5B increase at both ends of the range. Capex outlook remains increasing. The guidance raise was modest relative to the Q1 beat, partly because the $1.3B IEEPA benefit is one-time and commodity costs are tracking above $2B for the year.
Key takeaways
- Q1 revenue of $43.3B exceeded the $42.66B consensus by 1.4%, while EPS of $0.66 beat the $0.18 estimate by 261%, partly driven by a one-time $1.3B IEEPA tariff benefit.
- Full-year adjusted EBIT guidance was raised from $8-10B to $8.5-10.5B.
- Ford Pro software and physical services revenue surpassed $15B, with management targeting approximately 8% annual growth through 2030.
- Off-road performance trims now represent roughly 25% of U.S. sales, supporting margin mix.
- Ford is investing $1B in the UEV platform and $1.5B in Ford Energy, with battery-storage capacity targeted for Q4 2027.
- The stock declined 2.3% on an abnormal basis initially but subsequently drifted 44% higher over the following weeks.
Management priorities
- Launch the universal EV (UEV) platform in 2027 from the Louisville plant
- Ramp up Ford Energy battery-storage business to over 20 GWh capacity by Q4 2027
- Expand software-defined vehicles and grow Ford Pro subscription revenue
- Increase off-road and hybrid offerings across the pickup lineup
- Restart the Novelis aluminum hot-mill and recover 150,000 units of production
- Explore defense-related projects and deepen global partnerships including Renault
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$11.81Current
$10Low
$15.57Average
$29High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 28, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 12, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 6, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jun 25, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 29, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 13, 2026 |
| HSBC | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Underperform | Market Perform | Downgrade | Apr 9, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Underperform | Peer Perform | Downgrade | Dec 5, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Daiwa Capital | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 1, 2023 |
| Benchmark | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 31, 2023 |
| Tudor Pickering | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 15, 2023 |
| Berenberg | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 10, 2022 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 11, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 4, 2022 |
| Nomura Instinet | Reduce | Neutral | Downgrade | Nov 2, 2021 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Feb 9, 2021 |
| DZ Bank | Sell | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 7, 2020 |
| CFRA | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Feb 4, 2020 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 1, 2019 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 1, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 10, 2019 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | May 6, 2019 |
| Nomura | Reduce | Neutral | Downgrade | Apr 5, 2019 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 13, 2019 |
| PiperJaffray | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | May 15, 2018 |
| Standpoint Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 4, 2017 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 21, 2017 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 1, 2016 |
| CLSA | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 29, 2016 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 17, 2015 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 4, 2015 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 4, 2015 |
| Craig-Hallum | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 30, 2014 |
| Argus Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 6, 2014 |
| ISI Group | Buy | Strong Buy | Downgrade | Jan 13, 2014 |
| Tigress Financial | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 8, 2013 |
| Oxen Group | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 17, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $11.81. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $16 | $11.99 | +35.5% | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $15 | $12.24 | +27.0% | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Industrial Alliance Securities | Analyst unavailable | $14 | $12.14 | +18.5% | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Andrew Percoco | $15 | $14.96 | +27.0% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $17.5 | $14.35 | +48.2% | Jul 26, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Mark Delaney | $16 | $14.3 | +35.5% | Jun 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $17 | $14.9 | +43.9% | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Philippe Houchois | $14.5 | $14.93 | +22.8% | May 26, 2026 |
| UBS | Joseph Spak | $14 | $12.26 | +18.5% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $13 | $13.71 | +10.1% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| HSBC | Wesley Brooks | $12.8 | $14.03 | +8.4% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $16 | $13.73 | +35.5% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $14 | $13.55 | +18.5% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $12 | $12.94 | +1.6% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Barclays | Dan Levy | $12 | $13.58 | +1.6% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Alexander Potter | $11 | $12.34 | -6.9% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $12.5 | $12.66 | +5.8% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Philippe Houchois | $12 | $12.67 | +1.6% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Mark Delaney | $12 | $12.01 | +1.6% | Sep 29, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $11 | $10.95 | -6.9% | Aug 4, 2025 |
| Barclays | Dan Levy | $11 | $11.24 | -6.9% | Jul 16, 2025 |
| UBS | Joseph Spak | $11 | $11.88 | -6.9% | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Alexander Potter | $9 | $10.44 | -23.8% | May 22, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Tom Narayan | $10 | $10.41 | -15.3% | Oct 29, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Edison Yu | $10 | $11.37 | -15.3% | Oct 29, 2024 |
| Barclays | Dan Levy | $14 | $10.92 | +18.5% | Oct 15, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Jonas | $12 | $10.87 | +1.6% | Sep 25, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Edison Yu | $11 | $10.66 | -6.9% | Sep 9, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | John Murphy | $11.44 | $6.25 | -3.1% | Aug 22, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Daniel Roeska | $16 | $12.13 | +35.5% | Jun 7, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Joseph Spak | $13 | $12.95 | +10.1% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Jonas | $17 | $13.3 | +43.9% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| CFRA | Garrett Nelson | $14 | $13.6 | +18.5% | Apr 3, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Alexander Potter | $13 | $12.08 | +10.1% | Mar 14, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Jonas | $13.31 | $0.37 | +12.7% | Dec 1, 2023 |
| BOCOM International Holdings Company | Dan Levy | $14 | $9.91 | +18.5% | Nov 1, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Tom Narayan | $12 | $11.54 | +1.6% | Oct 25, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Jonas | $16 | $13.11 | +35.5% | Jul 31, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Jonas | $18.3 | $7.65 | +55.0% | Dec 6, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $14 | $13.75 | +18.5% | Nov 30, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Mark Delaney | $13 | $12.93 | +10.1% | Oct 27, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Jonas | $14 | $12.36 | +18.5% | Oct 5, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $13 | $11.91 | +10.1% | Sep 28, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $16 | $15.34 | +35.5% | Aug 2, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $15 | $13.72 | +27.0% | Jul 28, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $19 | $12.65 | +60.9% | Jul 26, 2022 |
| Nomura | Anindya Das | $12.4 | $12.88 | +5.0% | Jul 21, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $12 | $12.18 | +1.6% | Jul 18, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $10 | $11.52 | -15.3% | Jul 11, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Mark Delaney | $14 | $13.5 | +18.5% | Jun 6, 2022 |
| Tigress Financial | Ivan Feinseth | $22 | $12.5 | +86.3% | May 22, 2022 |
| Berenberg Bank | Adrian Yanoshik | $17 | $13.5 | +43.9% | May 15, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Colin Langan | $12 | $12.44 | +1.6% | May 13, 2022 |
| Barclays | Brian Johnson | $16 | $14.16 | +35.5% | Apr 30, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $14.66 | +103.2% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Ryan Brinkman | $21 | $14.61 | +77.8% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Emmanuel Rosner | $17 | $15.13 | +43.9% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Barclays | Brian Johnson | $17 | $14.96 | +43.9% | Apr 7, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Colin Langan | $25 | $16.65 | +111.7% | Apr 2, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Philippe Houchois | $18 | $16.58 | +52.4% | Mar 17, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Dan Levy | $25 | $17.6 | +111.7% | Mar 3, 2022 |
| CFRA | Garrett Nelson | $30 | $18.1 | +154.0% | Mar 2, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Colin Langan | $26 | $17.83 | +120.2% | Feb 26, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Jonas | $13 | $17.72 | +10.1% | Feb 8, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Chris McNally | $18 | $17.96 | +52.4% | Feb 4, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Emmanuel Rosner | $21 | $17.96 | +77.8% | Feb 4, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | John Murphy | $30 | $17.96 | +154.0% | Feb 4, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Philippe Houchois | $25 | $20.65 | +111.7% | Jan 22, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Emmanuel Rosner | $24 | $25.19 | +103.2% | Jan 14, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Mark Delaney | $22 | $23.73 | +86.3% | Jan 10, 2022 |
| Benchmark Co. | Michael Ward | $29 | $23.73 | +145.6% | Jan 10, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Bill Selesky | $29 | $24.33 | +145.6% | Jan 6, 2022 |
| Nomura | Anindya Das | $13 | $17.83 | +10.1% | Nov 2, 2021 |
| Tigress Financial | Ivan Feinseth | $20 | $15.88 | +69.3% | Oct 20, 2021 |
| UBS | Patrick Hummel | $15 | $13.79 | +27.0% | Aug 11, 2021 |
| Tudor Pickering | Jeoffrey Lambujon | $17 | $12.02 | +43.9% | May 18, 2021 |
Track every rating change on F the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationFord Motor Company is a global automotive giant, engaged in the design, production, and servicing of a broad spectrum of vehicles. Its product line encompasses Ford trucks, commercial cars and vans, and sport utility vehicles, in addition to luxury models from its Lincoln brand. The company structures its diverse operations into distinct segments: Ford Blue, Ford Model e, Ford Pro, Ford Next, and Ford Credit. Ford distributes its vehicles, service components, and accessories through a worldwide network of distributors and dealerships.…
Historical context
All F earningsConsumer Cyclical peers this season
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| SW Smurfit Westrock plc | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | -5.6% | Smurfit WestRock balances price recovery with $700m cost headwind |
| HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.4% | -2.1% | Hilton Q3: RevPAR growth and record organic openings |
| RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.0% | +5.5% | RCL raises EPS outlook as bookings accelerate and resorts broaden growth |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- HLTFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+3.4% EPS-2.1% move
- SPGIFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+3.4% EPS-0.4% move
- PYPLFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+10.7% EPS+2.0% move
- CMSAFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+6.7% EPS0.0% move
- ITWFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+2.4% EPS-0.1% move
- IQVFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+2.5% EPS-0.7% move
Missed on EPS
- ARCCFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026-3.4% EPS-0.5% move
- WSOFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026-8.0% EPS-1.4% move
- IVZFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026-2.7% EPS-0.4% move
- SHWFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026-1.6% EPS-2.7% move
- BAFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026-33.4% EPS-10.7% move
- AREFY2026 Q3 · October 26, 2026-13401.8% EPS-5.9% move
Get the F recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-29T19:00:19.584091+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T19:00:19.581182+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-07-29. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.