Expedia Group, Inc. · EXPE · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

EXPE: Strong Q4 growth, margin expansion and continued AI investment

The quarter supports a constructive operating thesis: strong bookings, B2B and advertising growth, margin expansion, and continued product investment provide evidence of resilient demand and execution. The thesis remains conditional on marketing leverage, B2B investment returns, AI-driven traffic, and acquisition integration.

Reported After market closeNASDAQConsumer Cyclical $30.25B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $3.78 Consensus $3.35
EPS surprise +12.8% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $3.55B Consensus $3.42B
Revenue surprise +3.8% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -6.4% Event window
SPY move +0.1% Same window
Abnormal move -6.5% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.2× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +8.8% Up to 20 sessions
EXPESPY benchmark

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What changed

The latest analysis adds a strong Q4 performance, nearly four points of EBITDA margin expansion, continued AI deployment, expanded supply and the Tickets acquisition, while management maintained its outlook.

Guidance delta

Management maintained its outlook, according to the supplied transcript analysis.

Key takeaways

  • Bookings and revenue grew 11% year over year in Q4, outpacing guidance.
  • EBITDA margin expanded by nearly four points, supported by cost discipline and marketing leverage.
  • B2B bookings rose 24% and advertising revenue increased 19%.
  • Management is embedding AI across personalization, advertising and operations.
  • Capital returns included a share repurchase and a dividend increase.

Management priorities

  • Roll out natural-language AI assistants and expanded trip-planning filters.
  • Use AI in advertising and product development across consumer and B2B lines.
  • Continue supply growth and deepen airline and OTA partnerships.
  • Scale cancel-any-reason assurance and VrboCare enhancements.
  • Integrate the Tickets acquisition and expand payment options and site speed.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
EXPE EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $1.67 Q4 '23 actual $1.72, beat Q1 '24 estimate $-0.14 Q1 '24 actual $0.21, beat Q2 '24 estimate $3.06 Q2 '24 actual $3.51, beat Q3 '24 estimate $6.04 Q3 '24 actual $6.13, beat Q2 '25 estimate $3.97 Q2 '25 actual $4.24, beat Q3 '25 estimate $6.97 Q3 '25 actual $7.57, beat Q4 '25 estimate $3.35 Q4 '25 actual $3.78, beat Q1 '26 estimate $1.41 Q1 '26 actual $1.96, beat Q2 '26 estimate $5.22 Q2 '26 actual $5.76, beat Q3 '26 estimate $8.80 Q4 '26 estimate $4.37 Q1 '27 estimate $2.48
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold75 ratings
Bullish3546.7%
Neutral3850.7%
Bearish22.6%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$266.33Current
$116Low
$240.75Average
$430High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainAug 25, 2026
Evercore ISI Group Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 24, 2026
Wedbush Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 20, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 12, 2026
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainAug 7, 2026
Show 70 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $266.33. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Morgan StanleyMatthew Cost$235$293.08 -11.8%Sep 16, 2026
BTIGAnalyst unavailable$400$339.12 +50.2%Aug 25, 2026
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$430$331.15 +61.5%Aug 24, 2026
WedbushAnalyst unavailable$417$325.47 +56.6%Aug 20, 2026
UBSLloyd Walmsley$351$321.07 +31.8%Aug 12, 2026
See 129 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Expedia Group, Inc. operates as a leading online travel company, serving customers both within the United States and across international markets. The enterprise structures its extensive operations into three primary divisions: Retail, Business-to-Business (B2B), and Trivago. Its comprehensive brand portfolio caters to diverse travel needs. Key retail brands include Brand Expedia, a full-service online travel platform offering localized websites; Hotels.com, specializing in the marketing and distribution of lodging accommodations; and Vrbo, an online marketplace dedicated to alternative accommodation options. Other prominent travel booking websites under its umbrella are Orbitz, Travelocity, and CheapTickets. For the EMEA region, ebookers functions as an online travel agent, presenting travelers with a broad spectrum of choices, while Hotwire provides various travel booking services.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-29T21:40:59.107037+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-29T21:40:59.104273+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-29. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.