Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy34 ratings
Bullish2264.7%
Neutral1235.3%
Bearish00.0%
Elastic N.V. · ESTC · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q2 2025
Elastic pairs strong Q4 execution with a conservative FY2026 outlook
Elastic's latest analysis supports a constructive but qualified view: demand for its cloud, AI, and vector-search offerings is expanding, while the conservative FY2026 outlook and public-sector exposure temper the growth case.
Reported Before market openNYSETechnology
$9.63B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $0.37
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $380.4M
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-0.4%
Event window
SPY move
+0.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
-0.8%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-10.1%
Up to 20 sessions
ESTCSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about ESTC FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove ESTC's -0.4% move after FY2025 Q4 earnings?What changed in ESTC's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for ESTC after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current quarter's analysis shifts emphasis from prior-quarter execution concerns to stronger reported performance, broader AI and vector-search adoption, new hyperscaler relationships, and the Keep acquisition. Guidance remained maintained rather than raised.
Guidance delta
Guidance was maintained. Management described the FY2026 outlook as conservative, reflecting macro uncertainty and U.S. public-sector headwinds.
Key takeaways
- Management highlighted 16% year-over-year revenue growth and 23% Elastic Cloud growth in Q4 FY2025.
- GenAI and vector-search adoption expanded across cloud customers, while enterprise expansion deals remained a key growth driver.
- AWS, Google Cloud, NVIDIA, and the Keep acquisition broaden the platform and AI roadmap, but cloud consumption and public-sector demand remain watchpoints.
Management priorities
- Continue rolling out Elastic Cloud Serverless across major cloud platforms.
- Expand AI Assistant, Attack Discovery, and Better Binary Quantization capabilities.
- Scale enterprise and mid-market sales capacity and integrate Keep's AIOps platform.
- Use hyperscaler partnerships to support search, security, and AI growth.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$91.74Current
$43Low
$108.03Average
$191High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 18, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Rosenblatt | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| DA Davidson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Needham | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 29, 2025 |
| TD Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 21, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 22, 2024 |
| William Blair | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Monness, Crespi, Hardt | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 11, 2022 |
| Summit Insights Group | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 21, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Dec 5, 2019 |
| Piper Jaffray | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 29, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 29, 2019 |
| KeyBanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 4, 2019 |
| Monness Crespi Hardt | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 17, 2018 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $91.74. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monness | Brian White | $120 | $95.26 | +30.8% | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Thomas Blakey | $100 | $97.32 | +9.0% | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brad Reback | $107 | $83.74 | +16.6% | Aug 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Radi Sultan | $105 | $83.74 | +14.5% | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $83.74 | +30.8% | Aug 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $108 | $83.74 | +17.7% | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Blair Abernethy | $83 | $80.4 | -9.5% | Aug 26, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Thomas Blakey | $91 | $84.54 | -0.8% | Aug 24, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brad Reback | $90 | $84.39 | -1.9% | Aug 18, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Sanjit Singh | $66 | $62.74 | -28.1% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| UBS | Radi Sultan | $85 | $61.82 | -7.3% | May 29, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Lucky Schreiner | $60 | $60.75 | -34.6% | May 29, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brad Reback | $65 | $57.61 | -29.1% | May 29, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $57.61 | -40.0% | May 29, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Thomas Blakey | $59 | $54.81 | -35.7% | May 26, 2026 |
| Redburn Partners | Daniel Sepahi | $49 | $49.23 | -46.6% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $48.96 | -45.5% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $61.03 | -12.8% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Lucky Schreiner | $80 | $71.5 | -12.8% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Rob Owens | $110 | $71.65 | +19.9% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $72.6 | +25.4% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Kingsley Crane | $115 | $82.08 | +25.4% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Patrick Colville | $76 | $82.08 | -17.2% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $85.58 | -1.9% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Ryan MacWilliams | $90 | $84.49 | -1.9% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Shrenik Kothari | $120 | $84.3 | +30.8% | Aug 29, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brad Reback | $134 | $87.79 | +46.1% | Aug 29, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $85.06 | +30.8% | Aug 29, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $85.06 | +30.8% | Aug 29, 2025 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Kingsley Crane | $120 | $87.79 | +30.8% | Aug 29, 2025 |
| Wedbush | Daniel Ives | $75 | $108.03 | -18.2% | Nov 25, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Daniel Ives | $135 | $108.03 | +47.2% | Nov 25, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Chris McNally | $43 | $83.63 | -53.1% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Barclays | Raimo Lenschow | $95 | $79.01 | +3.6% | Oct 7, 2024 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Kingsley Crane | $110 | $76.19 | +19.9% | Sep 3, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Ittai Kidron | $125 | $103.64 | +36.3% | Aug 30, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $110 | $103.64 | +19.9% | Aug 30, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Patrick Colville | $135 | $102.84 | +47.2% | May 31, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brad Reback | $120 | $93.18 | +30.8% | May 31, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Rob Owens | $131 | $93.18 | +42.8% | May 31, 2024 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Kingsley Crane | $125 | $93.18 | +36.3% | May 31, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew Hedberg | $135 | $93.18 | +47.2% | May 31, 2024 |
| D.A. Davidson | Gil Luria | $100 | $93.18 | +9.0% | May 31, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Shrenik Kothari | $135 | $104.95 | +47.2% | May 28, 2024 |
| UBS | Austin Dietz | $135 | $109.4 | +47.2% | May 22, 2024 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Blair Abernethy | $136 | $117.01 | +48.2% | Mar 1, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Ittai Kidron | $110 | $110.2 | +19.9% | Dec 1, 2023 |
| Wedbush | Taz Koujalgi | $67 | $60.07 | -27.0% | Dec 14, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brad Reback | $125 | $89.8 | +36.3% | Mar 28, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $120 | $111.04 | +30.8% | Jan 12, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Rob Owens | $155 | $108.79 | +69.0% | Jan 6, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Koji Ikeda | $185 | $118.28 | +101.7% | Dec 2, 2021 |
| Berenberg Bank | Kingsley Crane | $191 | $118.28 | +108.2% | Dec 2, 2021 |
| SMBC Nikko | Steven Koenig | $182 | $175.22 | +98.4% | Nov 19, 2021 |
| Summit Redstone Partners | Srini Nandury | $180 | $145.3 | +96.2% | Jun 20, 2021 |
| Wells Fargo | Andrew Nowinski | $184 | $129.84 | +100.6% | Jun 3, 2021 |
| Canaccord Genuity | David Hynes | $155 | $118.02 | +69.0% | Jun 2, 2021 |
Track every rating change on ESTC the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationElastic N.V., a company specializing in search technologies, furnishes advanced solutions engineered to operate across public, private, and multi-cloud environments. Its flagship offering is the Elastic Stack, a comprehensive software suite designed to acquire, store, search, analyze, and visually present data from a multitude of sources and formats. The Elastic Stack incorporates several core components: Elasticsearch: A powerful, distributed engine for real-time search and analytics, which also functions as a flexible data store for various types of information, including text, numerical values, geospatial coordinates, and both structured and unstructured datasets. Kibana: Serving as the intuitive user interface, management console, and configuration hub for the entire Elastic Stack.…
Historical context
All ESTC earningsTechnology peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIT Wipro Limited | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -25.0% | +3.9% | Wipro: AI pipeline expands as Q3 guidance stays narrow |
| TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.4% | -1.8% | TSMC beats Q3 guidance as AI demand drives fab expansion |
| ERIC Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +28.6% | +11.8% | Ericsson Q3: 7% organic growth, resilient margins and AI-led demand |
| ASML ASML Holding N.V. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +20.4% | -3.9% | ASML: Record Q3, strong AI demand and broader capacity plans |
Latest beats and misses
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-05-15T00:01:33.065679+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-18T07:40:41.922896+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-18T07:40:41.920180+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-18. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.