Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy34 ratings
Bullish2264.7%
Neutral1235.3%
Bearish00.0%
Elastic N.V. · ESTC · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2025
Elastic highlights AI adoption, security wins and a raised FY2026 outlook
The current analysis supports a constructive operating thesis: AI and vector-database adoption, platform consolidation and security share gains are supporting growth, while raised guidance reinforces management's near-term confidence. The thesis remains dependent on sustained consumption, competitive execution and public-sector demand.
Reported After market closeNYSETechnology
$10.21B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.60
Consensus $0.42
EPS surprise
+43.3%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$415.3M
Consensus $397.2M
Revenue surprise
+4.6%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-3.1%
Event window
SPY move
-0.6%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
4.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+2.3%
Up to 20 sessions
ESTCSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about ESTC FY2026 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did ESTC fall 3.1% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in ESTC's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for ESTC after FY2026 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, management's outlook shifted from maintained to raised: the company highlighted stronger growth, broader AI use, competitive security wins and additional federal-market initiatives, while continuing to flag macro and consumption uncertainty.
Guidance delta
Management raised full-year revenue guidance while maintaining a 16% non-GAAP operating margin outlook.
Key takeaways
- Management described continued demand for AI-powered search, vector database and security capabilities.
- Generative AI use cases expanded across Elastic Cloud customers, while security wins included competitive displacements.
- The company emphasized serverless cloud expansion, AI feature rollout and deeper U.S. federal-market penetration.
Management priorities
- Expand serverless Elastic Cloud across the major hyperscalers and broaden data-center capacity
- Continue rolling out AI-driven search and security features, including BBQ, ACORN-1 and EASE
- Advance FedRAMP High certification and focus sales capacity on enterprise and mid-market customers
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Miss
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$98.23Current
$43Low
$108.03Average
$191High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 11, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Rosenblatt | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| DA Davidson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Needham | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 29, 2025 |
| TD Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 21, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 22, 2024 |
| William Blair | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Monness, Crespi, Hardt | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 11, 2022 |
| Summit Insights Group | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 21, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Dec 5, 2019 |
| Piper Jaffray | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 29, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 29, 2019 |
| KeyBanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 4, 2019 |
| Monness Crespi Hardt | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 17, 2018 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $98.23. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monness | Brian White | $120 | $95.26 | +22.2% | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Thomas Blakey | $100 | $97.32 | +1.8% | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brad Reback | $107 | $83.74 | +8.9% | Aug 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Radi Sultan | $105 | $83.74 | +6.9% | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $83.74 | +22.2% | Aug 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $108 | $83.74 | +9.9% | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Blair Abernethy | $83 | $80.4 | -15.5% | Aug 26, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Thomas Blakey | $91 | $84.54 | -7.4% | Aug 24, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brad Reback | $90 | $84.39 | -8.4% | Aug 18, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Sanjit Singh | $66 | $62.74 | -32.8% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| UBS | Radi Sultan | $85 | $61.82 | -13.5% | May 29, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Lucky Schreiner | $60 | $60.75 | -38.9% | May 29, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brad Reback | $65 | $57.61 | -33.8% | May 29, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $57.61 | -44.0% | May 29, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Thomas Blakey | $59 | $54.81 | -39.9% | May 26, 2026 |
| Redburn Partners | Daniel Sepahi | $49 | $49.23 | -50.1% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $48.96 | -49.1% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $61.03 | -18.6% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Lucky Schreiner | $80 | $71.5 | -18.6% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Rob Owens | $110 | $71.65 | +12.0% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $72.6 | +17.1% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Kingsley Crane | $115 | $82.08 | +17.1% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Patrick Colville | $76 | $82.08 | -22.6% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $85.58 | -8.4% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Ryan MacWilliams | $90 | $84.49 | -8.4% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Shrenik Kothari | $120 | $84.3 | +22.2% | Aug 29, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brad Reback | $134 | $87.79 | +36.4% | Aug 29, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $85.06 | +22.2% | Aug 29, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $85.06 | +22.2% | Aug 29, 2025 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Kingsley Crane | $120 | $87.79 | +22.2% | Aug 29, 2025 |
| Wedbush | Daniel Ives | $75 | $108.03 | -23.6% | Nov 25, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Daniel Ives | $135 | $108.03 | +37.4% | Nov 25, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Chris McNally | $43 | $83.63 | -56.2% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Barclays | Raimo Lenschow | $95 | $79.01 | -3.3% | Oct 7, 2024 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Kingsley Crane | $110 | $76.19 | +12.0% | Sep 3, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Ittai Kidron | $125 | $103.64 | +27.3% | Aug 30, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $110 | $103.64 | +12.0% | Aug 30, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Patrick Colville | $135 | $102.84 | +37.4% | May 31, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brad Reback | $120 | $93.18 | +22.2% | May 31, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Rob Owens | $131 | $93.18 | +33.4% | May 31, 2024 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Kingsley Crane | $125 | $93.18 | +27.3% | May 31, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew Hedberg | $135 | $93.18 | +37.4% | May 31, 2024 |
| D.A. Davidson | Gil Luria | $100 | $93.18 | +1.8% | May 31, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Shrenik Kothari | $135 | $104.95 | +37.4% | May 28, 2024 |
| UBS | Austin Dietz | $135 | $109.4 | +37.4% | May 22, 2024 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Blair Abernethy | $136 | $117.01 | +38.5% | Mar 1, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Ittai Kidron | $110 | $110.2 | +12.0% | Dec 1, 2023 |
| Wedbush | Taz Koujalgi | $67 | $60.07 | -31.8% | Dec 14, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brad Reback | $125 | $89.8 | +27.3% | Mar 28, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $120 | $111.04 | +22.2% | Jan 12, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Rob Owens | $155 | $108.79 | +57.8% | Jan 6, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Koji Ikeda | $185 | $118.28 | +88.3% | Dec 2, 2021 |
| Berenberg Bank | Kingsley Crane | $191 | $118.28 | +94.4% | Dec 2, 2021 |
| SMBC Nikko | Steven Koenig | $182 | $175.22 | +85.3% | Nov 19, 2021 |
| Summit Redstone Partners | Srini Nandury | $180 | $145.3 | +83.2% | Jun 20, 2021 |
| Wells Fargo | Andrew Nowinski | $184 | $129.84 | +87.3% | Jun 3, 2021 |
| Canaccord Genuity | David Hynes | $155 | $118.02 | +57.8% | Jun 2, 2021 |
Track every rating change on ESTC the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationElastic N.V., a company specializing in search technologies, furnishes advanced solutions engineered to operate across public, private, and multi-cloud environments. Its flagship offering is the Elastic Stack, a comprehensive software suite designed to acquire, store, search, analyze, and visually present data from a multitude of sources and formats. The Elastic Stack incorporates several core components: Elasticsearch: A powerful, distributed engine for real-time search and analytics, which also functions as a flexible data store for various types of information, including text, numerical values, geospatial coordinates, and both structured and unstructured datasets. Kibana: Serving as the intuitive user interface, management console, and configuration hub for the entire Elastic Stack.…
Historical context
All ESTC earningsTechnology peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACN Accenture plc | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.5% | +15.8% | Accenture: AI demand supports strong Q4, while pricing and geopolitics remain risks |
| JBL Jabil Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.1% | -10.0% | Jabil enters FY2027 with AI-led growth and capacity risks |
| MU Micron Technology, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +5.4% | +0.0% | Micron: Strong AI Memory Demand, Higher Capex, and HBM4E Ahead |
| SNX TD Synnex Corp | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +20.9% | -9.9% | TD SYNNEX: AI-led growth accelerates, but mix and cash flow matter |
| ADBE Adobe Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +0.8% | +1.4% | Adobe raises FY26 outlook as AI strategy broadens |
| ORCL Oracle Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +10.3% | -1.7% | Oracle raises FY27 outlook as AI demand accelerates cloud growth |
Latest beats and misses
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-11T18:40:45.186967+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-11T18:40:45.183139+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-11. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.