Elastic N.V. · ESTC · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q2 2025

Elastic pairs strong Q4 execution with a conservative FY2026 outlook

Elastic's latest analysis supports a constructive but qualified view: demand for its cloud, AI, and vector-search offerings is expanding, while the conservative FY2026 outlook and public-sector exposure temper the growth case.

Reported Before market openNYSETechnology $9.63B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $0.37
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $380.4M
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -0.4% Event window
SPY move +0.4% Same window
Abnormal move -0.8% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.8× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -10.1% Up to 20 sessions
ESTCSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The current quarter's analysis shifts emphasis from prior-quarter execution concerns to stronger reported performance, broader AI and vector-search adoption, new hyperscaler relationships, and the Keep acquisition. Guidance remained maintained rather than raised.

Guidance delta

Guidance was maintained. Management described the FY2026 outlook as conservative, reflecting macro uncertainty and U.S. public-sector headwinds.

Key takeaways

  • Management highlighted 16% year-over-year revenue growth and 23% Elastic Cloud growth in Q4 FY2025.
  • GenAI and vector-search adoption expanded across cloud customers, while enterprise expansion deals remained a key growth driver.
  • AWS, Google Cloud, NVIDIA, and the Keep acquisition broaden the platform and AI roadmap, but cloud consumption and public-sector demand remain watchpoints.

Management priorities

  • Continue rolling out Elastic Cloud Serverless across major cloud platforms.
  • Expand AI Assistant, Attack Discovery, and Better Binary Quantization capabilities.
  • Scale enterprise and mid-market sales capacity and integrate Keep's AIOps platform.
  • Use hyperscaler partnerships to support search, security, and AI growth.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
ESTC EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q3 '24 estimate $0.31 Q3 '24 actual $0.36, beat Q4 '24 estimate $0.20 Q4 '24 actual $0.21, beat Q1 '25 estimate $0.26 Q1 '25 actual $0.35, beat Q1 '26 estimate $0.42 Q1 '26 actual $0.60, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.58 Q2 '26 actual $0.64, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.64 Q3 '26 actual $0.73, beat Q4 '26 estimate $0.56 Q4 '26 actual $0.61, beat Q1 '27 estimate $0.58 Q1 '27 actual $0.70, beat Q2 '27 estimate $0.81 Q3 '27 estimate $0.95 Q4 '27 estimate $0.90 Q1 '28 estimate $0.86
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy34 ratings
Bullish2264.7%
Neutral1235.3%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$91.74Current
$43Low
$108.03Average
$191High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 18, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Wedbush Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 9, 2026
Stifel Buy BuyMaintainOct 9, 2026
Cantor Fitzgerald Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 23, 2026
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainAug 28, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainAug 28, 2026
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainAug 28, 2026
Scotiabank Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainAug 28, 2026
Rosenblatt Buy BuyMaintainAug 28, 2026
Piper Sandler Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 28, 2026
Oppenheimer Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 28, 2026
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainAug 28, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 28, 2026
Jefferies Buy BuyMaintainAug 28, 2026
Guggenheim Buy BuyMaintainAug 28, 2026
DA Davidson Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 28, 2026
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainAug 28, 2026
Canaccord Genuity Buy BuyMaintainAug 28, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 28, 2026
Baird Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 28, 2026
B of A Securities Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 28, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainAug 20, 2026
RBC Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 14, 2026
Needham Hold HoldMaintainOct 10, 2025
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 29, 2025
TD Securities Hold HoldMaintainMay 21, 2025
Goldman Sachs Neutral NeutralMaintainNov 22, 2024
William Blair Outperform Market PerformUpgradeOct 14, 2024
Monness, Crespi, Hardt Neutral BuyDowngradeAug 11, 2022
Summit Insights Group Buy BuyMaintainJun 21, 2021
Stifel Nicolaus Hold HoldMaintainDec 5, 2019
Piper Jaffray Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 29, 2019
Bank of America Buy BuyMaintainAug 29, 2019
KeyBanc Overweight OverweightMaintainApr 4, 2019
Monness Crespi Hardt Buy BuyMaintainDec 17, 2018
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Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $91.74. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
MonnessBrian White$120$95.26 +30.8%Oct 9, 2026
Cantor FitzgeraldThomas Blakey$100$97.32 +9.0%Aug 28, 2026
Stifel NicolausBrad Reback$107$83.74 +16.6%Aug 28, 2026
UBSRadi Sultan$105$83.74 +14.5%Aug 28, 2026
GuggenheimAnalyst unavailable$120$83.74 +30.8%Aug 28, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$108$83.74 +17.7%Aug 28, 2026
Rosenblatt SecuritiesBlair Abernethy$83$80.4 -9.5%Aug 26, 2026
Cantor FitzgeraldThomas Blakey$91$84.54 -0.8%Aug 24, 2026
Stifel NicolausBrad Reback$90$84.39 -1.9%Aug 18, 2026
Morgan StanleySanjit Singh$66$62.74 -28.1%Jul 21, 2026
UBSRadi Sultan$85$61.82 -7.3%May 29, 2026
D.A. DavidsonLucky Schreiner$60$60.75 -34.6%May 29, 2026
Stifel NicolausBrad Reback$65$57.61 -29.1%May 29, 2026
Wolfe ResearchAnalyst unavailable$55$57.61 -40.0%May 29, 2026
Cantor FitzgeraldThomas Blakey$59$54.81 -35.7%May 26, 2026
Redburn PartnersDaniel Sepahi$49$49.23 -46.6%Apr 23, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$50$48.96 -45.5%Apr 21, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$80$61.03 -12.8%Feb 19, 2026
D.A. DavidsonLucky Schreiner$80$71.5 -12.8%Nov 21, 2025
Piper SandlerRob Owens$110$71.65 +19.9%Nov 21, 2025
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$115$72.6 +25.4%Nov 21, 2025
Canaccord GenuityKingsley Crane$115$82.08 +25.4%Nov 21, 2025
ScotiabankPatrick Colville$76$82.08 -17.2%Nov 21, 2025
ScotiabankAnalyst unavailable$90$85.58 -1.9%Oct 6, 2025
Wells FargoRyan MacWilliams$90$84.49 -1.9%Sep 30, 2025
Robert W. BairdShrenik Kothari$120$84.3 +30.8%Aug 29, 2025
Stifel NicolausBrad Reback$134$87.79 +46.1%Aug 29, 2025
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$120$85.06 +30.8%Aug 29, 2025
UBSAnalyst unavailable$120$85.06 +30.8%Aug 29, 2025
Canaccord GenuityKingsley Crane$120$87.79 +30.8%Aug 29, 2025
WedbushDaniel Ives$75$108.03 -18.2%Nov 25, 2024
WedbushDaniel Ives$135$108.03 +47.2%Nov 25, 2024
Evercore ISIChris McNally$43$83.63 -53.1%Oct 14, 2024
BarclaysRaimo Lenschow$95$79.01 +3.6%Oct 7, 2024
Canaccord GenuityKingsley Crane$110$76.19 +19.9%Sep 3, 2024
OppenheimerIttai Kidron$125$103.64 +36.3%Aug 30, 2024
JefferiesBrent Thill$110$103.64 +19.9%Aug 30, 2024
ScotiabankPatrick Colville$135$102.84 +47.2%May 31, 2024
Stifel NicolausBrad Reback$120$93.18 +30.8%May 31, 2024
Piper SandlerRob Owens$131$93.18 +42.8%May 31, 2024
Canaccord GenuityKingsley Crane$125$93.18 +36.3%May 31, 2024
RBC CapitalMatthew Hedberg$135$93.18 +47.2%May 31, 2024
D.A. DavidsonGil Luria$100$93.18 +9.0%May 31, 2024
Robert W. BairdShrenik Kothari$135$104.95 +47.2%May 28, 2024
UBSAustin Dietz$135$109.4 +47.2%May 22, 2024
Rosenblatt SecuritiesBlair Abernethy$136$117.01 +48.2%Mar 1, 2024
OppenheimerIttai Kidron$110$110.2 +19.9%Dec 1, 2023
WedbushTaz Koujalgi$67$60.07 -27.0%Dec 14, 2022
Stifel NicolausBrad Reback$125$89.8 +36.3%Mar 28, 2022
JefferiesBrent Thill$120$111.04 +30.8%Jan 12, 2022
Piper SandlerRob Owens$155$108.79 +69.0%Jan 6, 2022
Bank of America SecuritiesKoji Ikeda$185$118.28 +101.7%Dec 2, 2021
Berenberg BankKingsley Crane$191$118.28 +108.2%Dec 2, 2021
SMBC NikkoSteven Koenig$182$175.22 +98.4%Nov 19, 2021
Summit Redstone PartnersSrini Nandury$180$145.3 +96.2%Jun 20, 2021
Wells FargoAndrew Nowinski$184$129.84 +100.6%Jun 3, 2021
Canaccord GenuityDavid Hynes$155$118.02 +69.0%Jun 2, 2021
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Elastic N.V., a company specializing in search technologies, furnishes advanced solutions engineered to operate across public, private, and multi-cloud environments. Its flagship offering is the Elastic Stack, a comprehensive software suite designed to acquire, store, search, analyze, and visually present data from a multitude of sources and formats. The Elastic Stack incorporates several core components: Elasticsearch: A powerful, distributed engine for real-time search and analytics, which also functions as a flexible data store for various types of information, including text, numerical values, geospatial coordinates, and both structured and unstructured datasets. Kibana: Serving as the intuitive user interface, management console, and configuration hub for the entire Elastic Stack.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-05-15T00:01:33.065679+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-18T07:40:41.922896+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-18T07:40:41.920180+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-18. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.