Elevance Health Inc. · ELV · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Elevance balances Medicaid pressure with Carelon growth plans

The supplied analysis supports a mixed outlook: Elevance has identifiable growth avenues in Carelon, specialty pharmacy, behavioral health, analytics, and HealthOS, but near-term earnings durability depends on Medicaid margin recovery, cost trends, membership changes, and policy outcomes.

Reported Before market openNYSEHealthcare $82.77B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $3.33 Consensus $3.10
EPS surprise +7.4% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $49.31B Consensus $49.84B
Revenue surprise -1.1% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +5.9% Event window
SPY move -0.0% Same window
Abnormal move +5.9% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.9× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -5.5% Up to 20 sessions
ELVSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The current analysis highlights 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance of at least $25.50, expected membership declines across several businesses, Medicaid margin pressure, and a focus on Carelon expansion, analytics, pricing discipline, and targeted capital deployment.

Guidance delta

Management maintained 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance of at least $25.50 and its 12% adjusted EPS growth goal beginning in 2027.

Key takeaways

  • Management reported Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of $3.33 and full-year adjusted EPS of $30.29.
  • 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance was set at at least $25.50.
  • Medicaid margins remain under pressure, while Medicare Advantage and Carelon are expected to improve or grow.
  • Analytics, specialty pharmacy, behavioral health, and HealthOS are central to the operating plan.

Management priorities

  • Strengthen specialty pharmacy and behavioral health management
  • Scale Carelon Services and Carelon Rx, including CareBridge
  • Deploy HealthOS for data exchange and prior-authorization automation
  • Use pricing discipline and portfolio repositioning to support margins

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
ELV REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 8 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $42B Q4 '23 actual $43B, beat Q1 '24 estimate $42B Q1 '24 actual $43B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $43B Q2 '24 actual $44B, beat Q2 '25 estimate $48B Q2 '25 actual $49B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $49B Q3 '25 actual $50B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $50B Q4 '25 actual $49B, miss Q1 '26 estimate $48B Q1 '26 actual $49B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $49B Q2 '26 actual $50B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $49B Q4 '26 estimate $48B Q1 '27 estimate $50B Q2 '27 estimate $51B

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy38 ratings
Bullish2771.1%
Neutral1128.9%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$381.67Previous close
$320Low
$468.44Average
$625High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 2, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Leerink Partners Market Perform Market PerformMaintainJul 17, 2026
Bernstein Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 17, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 16, 2026
RBC Capital Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainJul 16, 2026
Guggenheim Buy BuyMaintainJul 16, 2026
Show 33 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $381.67. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Leerink PartnersAnalyst unavailable$395$369.28 +3.5%Jul 17, 2026
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$488$372.85 +27.9%Jul 16, 2026
New StreetAnalyst unavailable$482$377.63 +26.3%Jul 16, 2026
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$424$390.33 +11.1%Jul 16, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$395$390.33 +3.5%Jul 16, 2026
See 94 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Operating as a major health benefits organization, Elevance Health Inc. commits to guiding consumers, families, and communities across their entire health and wellness path. It facilitates access to vital care, assistance, and tools designed to enable healthier living for approximately 118 million individuals. The company's comprehensive offerings span medical, digital, pharmaceutical, behavioral health, clinical, and other care solutions. Founded in 1944 and based in Indianapolis, Indiana, this entity adopted its current name, Elevance Health Inc., in June 2022, having previously operated as Anthem, Inc.

Historical context

All ELV earnings

Healthcare peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
COO The Cooper Companies, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +2.7% -14.7% CooperCompanies beats expectations as inventory reduction weighs on vision revenue
MDT Medtronic plc FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 +4.3% +1.5% Medtronic raises FY27 outlook as growth broadens across platforms

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-02T06:26:14.388471+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-02T06:26:14.385609+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-02. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.