Elevance Health Inc. · ELV · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025

Elevance balances Carelon growth with Medicaid and ACA pressure

The supplied analysis supports a mixed outlook: Carelon pharmacy and services growth, AI-enabled efficiency efforts, and integrated medical-pharmacy capabilities provide operating support, while Medicaid margin pressure and ACA policy uncertainty constrain visibility. The evidence is constructive on growth initiatives but does not remove execution and policy risks.

Reported Before market openNYSEHealthcare $83.80B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $6.03 Consensus $4.93
EPS surprise +22.3% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $50.09B Consensus $49.38B
Revenue surprise +1.4% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -1.2% Event window
SPY move -0.0% Same window
Abnormal move -1.2% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.3× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -7.2% Up to 20 sessions
ELVSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, management's tone was more confident and the focus shifted toward scaling AI and Carelon capabilities, while Medicaid pressure became more explicit, including an expected further decline in 2026. The analysis also highlighted the planned integration of recent acquisitions and a broader AI deployment effort.

Guidance delta

No change: management reaffirmed 2025 adjusted EPS guidance at approximately $30.

Key takeaways

  • Management described strong Carelon Rx and Carelon Services growth as key earnings drivers.
  • Medicaid margins remain under pressure, with further decline expected in 2026 before improvement thereafter.
  • AI tools, including HealthOS and an AI-enabled virtual assistant, are central to efficiency and member engagement plans.
  • The investment case depends on execution in pharmacy and services while managing policy and medical-cost uncertainty.

Management priorities

  • Deploy generative AI across member, provider, and associate interactions.
  • Complete integration of the Kroger Specialty Pharmacy and CareBridge acquisitions.
  • Scale Carelon Rx, including home delivery and infusion capabilities.
  • Improve Medicare Advantage star ratings and expand the HMO/D-SNP footprint.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
ELV EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 8 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $5.55 Q4 '23 actual $5.62, beat Q1 '24 estimate $10.53 Q1 '24 actual $10.64, beat Q2 '24 estimate $10.01 Q2 '24 actual $10.12, beat Q2 '25 estimate $8.91 Q2 '25 actual $8.84, miss Q3 '25 estimate $4.93 Q3 '25 actual $6.03, beat Q4 '25 estimate $3.10 Q4 '25 actual $3.33, beat Q1 '26 estimate $10.82 Q1 '26 actual $12.58, beat Q2 '26 estimate $6.21 Q2 '26 actual $7.45, beat Q3 '26 estimate $4.66 Q4 '26 estimate $2.49 Q1 '27 estimate $12.23 Q2 '27 estimate $7.83

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy38 ratings
Bullish2771.1%
Neutral1128.9%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$391.13Current
$320Low
$468.44Average
$625High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 5, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Leerink Partners Market Perform Market PerformMaintainJul 17, 2026
Bernstein Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 17, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 16, 2026
RBC Capital Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainJul 16, 2026
Guggenheim Buy BuyMaintainJul 16, 2026
Show 33 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $391.13. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Leerink PartnersAnalyst unavailable$395$369.28 +1.0%Jul 17, 2026
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$488$372.85 +24.8%Jul 16, 2026
New StreetAnalyst unavailable$482$377.63 +23.2%Jul 16, 2026
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$424$390.33 +8.4%Jul 16, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$395$390.33 +1.0%Jul 16, 2026
See 94 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Operating as a major health benefits organization, Elevance Health Inc. commits to guiding consumers, families, and communities across their entire health and wellness path. It facilitates access to vital care, assistance, and tools designed to enable healthier living for approximately 118 million individuals. The company's comprehensive offerings span medical, digital, pharmaceutical, behavioral health, clinical, and other care solutions. Founded in 1944 and based in Indianapolis, Indiana, this entity adopted its current name, Elevance Health Inc., in June 2022, having previously operated as Anthem, Inc.

Historical context

All ELV earnings

Healthcare peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
COO The Cooper Companies, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +2.7% -14.7% CooperCompanies beats expectations as inventory reduction weighs on vision revenue
MDT Medtronic plc FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 +4.3% +1.5% Medtronic raises FY27 outlook as growth broadens across platforms

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-05T14:00:47.132932+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-05T14:00:47.128904+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-05. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.