DaVita Inc. · DVA · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

DaVita’s IKC profitability adds a new growth engine amid volume risks

The latest analysis supports a more constructive view of DaVita’s growth trajectory: IKC profitability, home-health expansion, clinical initiatives, and cost discipline provide potential support, but volume, policy, mortality, and execution risks remain material.

Reported After market closeNYSEHealthcare $11.23B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $3.40 Consensus $3.24
EPS surprise +4.9% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $3.62B Consensus $3.51B
Revenue surprise +3.2% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +21.2% Event window
SPY move -0.8% Same window
Abnormal move +22.0% Stock minus SPY
Volume 4.8× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +14.9% Up to 20 sessions
DVASPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the narrative moved from technology and AI investment toward evidence of IKC profitability, the Elara Caring partnership, and a clearer focus on clinical execution and treatment-volume recovery.

Guidance delta

Maintained; management reaffirmed its outlook while emphasizing volume recovery, IKC profitability, clinical initiatives, and cost discipline.

Key takeaways

  • Management described IKC as a new source of profitability.
  • The outlook depends on treatment-volume recovery and continued cost discipline.
  • Clinical initiatives and the Elara Caring partnership are intended to support patient outcomes and reduce missed treatments.
  • ACA policy, mortality, cyber effects, and international execution remain important risks.
  • The prior quarter emphasized technology and AI investment; the current analysis shifts attention toward IKC profitability, home health, and clinical execution.

Management priorities

  • Expand and improve the Integrated Kidney Care model.
  • Integrate the Elara Caring partnership and advance home-health services.
  • Pursue clinical initiatives including vaccination, GLP-1 adoption, and advanced dialysis technologies.
  • Work toward treatment-volume growth while maintaining cost discipline.
  • Continue share repurchases within leverage and liquidity targets.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
DVA REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $3B Q4 '23 actual $3B, beat Q1 '24 estimate $3B Q1 '24 actual $3B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $3B Q2 '24 actual $3B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $3B Q3 '24 actual $3B, match Q2 '25 estimate $3B Q2 '25 actual $3B, miss Q3 '25 estimate $3B Q3 '25 actual $3B, miss Q4 '25 estimate $4B Q4 '25 actual $4B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $3B Q1 '26 actual $3B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $3B Q2 '26 actual $4B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $4B Q4 '26 estimate $4B Q1 '27 estimate $4B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold22 ratings
Bullish1045.5%
Neutral1150.0%
Bearish14.5%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$177.11Current
$81Low
$191.58Average
$270High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Truist Securities Hold HoldMaintainAug 7, 2026
TD Cowen Buy HoldUpgradeAug 7, 2026
Barclays Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainAug 5, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainJul 10, 2026
Deutsche Bank Buy HoldUpgradeMay 6, 2026
Show 17 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $177.11. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$215$179.92 +21.4%Aug 7, 2026
Raymond JamesAnalyst unavailable$220$180.67 +24.2%Aug 7, 2026
OppenheimerAnalyst unavailable$220$180.67 +24.2%Aug 7, 2026
Deutsche BankPito Chickering$265$185.52 +49.6%Aug 5, 2026
BarclaysAndrew Mok$224$227.99 +26.5%Aug 5, 2026
See 19 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

DaVita Inc. specializes in delivering essential kidney dialysis treatments and comprehensive renal care to individuals grappling with chronic kidney failure. The company primarily operates an extensive network of outpatient dialysis centers, supplementing this with services provided in hospital inpatient settings and within patients' homes. Beyond direct patient treatment, DaVita manages its own diagnostic laboratories, performing routine tests vital for dialysis patients, alongside other physician-ordered laboratory analyses specifically for those with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). The firm also offers administrative and management support to various other outpatient dialysis facilities.…

Historical context

All DVA earnings

Healthcare peers this season

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COO The Cooper Companies, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +2.7% -14.7% CooperCompanies beats expectations as inventory reduction weighs on vision revenue
MDT Medtronic plc FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 +4.3% +1.5% Medtronic raises FY27 outlook as growth broadens across platforms

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-01T18:16:10.379462+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-01T18:16:10.376483+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.