DaVita Q1 2026: EPS Beat of 19%, Guidance Raised on Volume and AI Gains

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What changed

From Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, DaVita shifted from maintaining to raising guidance. Treatment volume, which was flat in the prior quarter, showed growth driven by better mortality trends and Fresenius clinic closure transfers contributing roughly half of the projected 25-50 bps annual volume growth. The Integrated Kidney Care program, which achieved first-time profitability in 2025, continued to strengthen, with DaVita recording the highest total aggregate savings among CMS CKCC participants at a 4.5% improvement in gross savings rate. Technology investment took on greater prominence with the deployment of ScheduleHub, an AI-driven real-time scheduling tool, complementing prior-quarter clinical initiatives around vaccination, GLP-1 adoption, and advanced dialysis technologies. The Elara Caring partnership and $200 million minority investment announced in Q4 2025 were not highlighted as new developments this quarter.

Guidance delta

Full-year 2026 guidance was raised. Adjusted operating income moved from $2.085-$2.235 billion to $2.15-$2.25 billion, and adjusted EPS from $13.60-$15.00 to $14.10-$15.20. The prior quarter's guidance sentiment was 'maintained'; this quarter's is 'raised.'

Key takeaways

• EPS of $2.87 beat the $2.41 consensus estimate by 19%, while revenue of $3.42 billion topped the $3.36 billion estimate by 1.8%.
• Full-year guidance was raised, with adjusted operating income now $2.15-$2.25 billion and EPS $14.10-$15.20, up from $2.085-$2.235 billion and $13.60-$15.00.
• Treatment volume growth outlook was upgraded, supported by better mortality trends and patient transfers from Fresenius clinic closures contributing roughly half of the projected 25-50 bps annual growth.
• DaVita achieved the highest total aggregate savings among CMS CKCC participants, with a 4.5% improvement in gross savings rate in its Integrated Kidney Care program.
• AI and technology investments, including the ScheduleHub scheduling tool, are delivering productivity gains across clinical and operational functions.

Management priorities

• Expand AI applications across clinical, operational, and business use cases.
• Capture additional market share from Fresenius clinic closures.
• Continue investment in IT systems, EMR modernization, and digital tools.
• Maintain disciplined capital allocation with ongoing share repurchases.