Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold35 ratings
Bullish1234.3%
Neutral1851.4%
Bearish514.3%
Dow Inc. · DOW · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Dow beats Q1 EPS on tight polyethylene pricing, guides Q2 EBITDA to ~$2B as Carter takes the helm
Dow enters 2026 with earnings momentum from supply-driven polyethylene pricing plus a Transform to Outperform program targeting at least $2B of near-term EBITDA upside. Management's Q2 guide of roughly $2B EBITDA versus Q1's $873M rests on the Poly7 ramp, cost-out and a cost-advantaged Americas base. That margin case depends on geopolitical-tightened pricing and cost savings holding against feedstock inflation and a slower construction and industrial demand recovery; capital discipline and the Path2Zero returns support the downside.
Reported Before market openNYSEBasic Materials
$20.63B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$-0.14
Consensus $-0.29
EPS surprise
+51.9%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$9.79B
Consensus $9.66B
Revenue surprise
+1.4%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-0.7%
Event window
SPY move
-0.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
-0.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-6.8%
Up to 20 sessions
DOWSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about DOW FY2026 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did DOW fall 0.7% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in DOW's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for DOW after FY2026 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Q1 2026 EPS of -$0.14 beat the -$0.29 consensus by ~52% on revenue of $9.79B (+1.4% vs. estimate), helped by $193M of cost savings and tight polyethylene markets. Management began a CEO transition to Karen Carter, suspended recognition of Sadara equity losses alongside an ~$100M annual cash commitment, launched the Poly7 train, and guided Q2 revenue near $12B with EBITDA near $2B.
Guidance delta
Maintained. Management guided Q2 2026 revenue near $12B and EBITDA near $2B, roughly doubling Q1's $873M, citing pricing momentum, seasonality and cost-out actions (Q1 cost savings of $193M).
Key takeaways
- Q1 2026 EPS of -$0.14 beat the -$0.29 consensus by ~52% on revenue of $9.79B, up 1.4% versus the estimate
- Tight polyethylene markets driven by Middle East supply disruptions lifted pricing and supported margin expansion
- Transform to Outperform targets at least $2B of near-term EBITDA improvement, with roughly $400M expected in H2 2026
- Management guided Q2 revenue near $12B and EBITDA near $2B on pricing, seasonality and cost savings
- Karen Carter is set to become CEO; capex stays at or below depreciation with Path2Zero as the main large-scale project
Management priorities
- Ramp the new Poly7 polyethylene train and capture incremental growth from new capacity
- Continue Transform to Outperform execution and self-help cost-out actions
- Complete European asset shutdowns, including the Barry, UK siloxane plant
- Progress the Alberta Path2Zero project as the principal large-scale investment
- Maintain a cost-advantaged Americas base and disciplined capital allocation
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Beat
Miss
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$28.02Current
$20Low
$47.35Average
$81High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 26, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 20, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Alembic Global | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 2, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 1, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 13, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Mar 30, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 10, 2026 |
| Fermium Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Mar 9, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Sector Weight | Upgrade | Mar 4, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 25, 2025 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 7, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 12, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Jun 22, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Apr 19, 2022 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Nov 13, 2020 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 21, 2020 |
| HSBC | Reduce | Hold | Downgrade | Sep 16, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 28, 2020 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 24, 2020 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 18, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Aug 16, 2019 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Positive | Downgrade | Jul 29, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| CLSA | Underperform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 6, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 22, 2015 |
| Gilford Securities | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Jan 28, 2015 |
| Atlantic Equities | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Nov 28, 2014 |
| The Oxen Group | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 4, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $28.02. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $32 | $29.44 | +14.2% | Sep 17, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $32 | $29.36 | +14.2% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $30.04 | +39.2% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Duffy Fischer | $34 | $29.68 | +21.3% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $33 | $27.71 | +17.8% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $27.71 | +24.9% | Jul 3, 2026 |
| Alembic Global | Hassan Ahmed | $45 | $27.02 | +60.6% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | John Roberts | $35 | $27.36 | +24.9% | Jul 1, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $28 | $27.36 | -0.1% | Jul 1, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $37 | $34.14 | +32.0% | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $38.24 | +42.8% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Arun Viswanathan | $51 | $38.66 | +82.0% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $39.02 | +39.2% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $38.22 | +64.2% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $41 | $37.16 | +46.3% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Arun Viswanathan | $47 | $38.8 | +67.7% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Alembic Global | Hassan Ahmed | $50 | $38.04 | +78.4% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $39.47 | +42.8% | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Fermium Research | Frank Mitsch | $38 | $34.31 | +35.6% | Mar 9, 2026 |
| Vertical Research | Analyst unavailable | $37 | $34.31 | +32.0% | Mar 9, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $34.31 | +42.8% | Mar 9, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Aleksey Yefremov | $38 | $30.74 | +35.6% | Mar 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Joshua Spector | $28 | $27.56 | -0.1% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Laurence Alexander | $28 | $27.16 | -0.1% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $29 | $27.66 | +3.5% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | John Roberts | $27 | $24.8 | -3.6% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $23.42 | -17.9% | Dec 23, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | David Begleiter | $25 | $22.98 | -10.8% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $25.31 | -3.6% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Arun Viswanathan | $27 | $24.51 | -3.6% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| UBS | Joshua Spector | $25 | $24.51 | -10.8% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | John Roberts | $25 | $24.51 | -10.8% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $21.9 | -14.3% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Arun Viswanathan | $24 | $21.64 | -14.3% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $23.54 | -14.3% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $26 | $23.69 | -7.2% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $24.14 | +7.1% | Sep 9, 2025 |
| Redburn Partners | Colin Isaac | $40 | $22.38 | +42.8% | Aug 5, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | John McNulty | $20 | $25.18 | -28.6% | Jul 29, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $22 | $26.87 | -21.5% | Jun 23, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Arun Viswanathan | $30 | $30.02 | +7.1% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Barclays | Michael Leithead | $32 | $29.76 | +14.2% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Sison | $40 | $28.2 | +42.8% | Apr 4, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Arun Viswanathan | $44 | $40 | +57.0% | Dec 19, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Eric Boyes | $56 | $40.57 | +99.9% | Dec 17, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Sison | $55 | $42.18 | +96.3% | Dec 10, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $60 | $46.49 | +114.1% | Nov 8, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Pat Cunningham | $52 | $50.15 | +85.6% | Sep 13, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Arun Viswanathan | $55 | $50.26 | +96.3% | Sep 13, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | David Begleiter | $53 | $50.04 | +89.2% | Sep 12, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | John McNulty | $57 | $52.98 | +103.4% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $64 | $53.06 | +128.4% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Arun Viswanathan | $57 | $53.06 | +103.4% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Laurence Alexander | $55 | $55.44 | +96.3% | Jun 20, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Stephen Richardson | $62 | $58.7 | +121.3% | May 17, 2024 |
| UBS | John Roberts | $61 | $58.7 | +117.7% | May 16, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $68 | $57.61 | +142.7% | Apr 29, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Sison | $68 | $58.26 | +142.7% | Apr 2, 2024 |
| J.P. Morgan | Jeffrey Zekauskas | $55 | $50.27 | +96.3% | Oct 17, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Vincent Andrews | $54 | $55.62 | +92.7% | Jul 31, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | David Begleiter | $60 | $51.8 | +114.1% | Jun 13, 2023 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $57 | $57.3 | +103.4% | Jan 11, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $55.97 | +114.1% | Jan 9, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $56 | $51.36 | +99.9% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Fermium Research | Frank Mitsch | $50 | $45.77 | +78.4% | Oct 21, 2022 |
| Fermium Research | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $50.51 | +114.1% | Sep 9, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Christopher Parkinson | $62 | $52.55 | +121.3% | Aug 2, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $51.58 | +114.1% | Jul 26, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $50.96 | +114.1% | Jul 11, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | John Roberts | $49 | $51.8 | +74.9% | Jun 22, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Laurence Alexander | $81 | $54.77 | +189.1% | Jun 20, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $74 | $55.58 | +164.1% | Jun 16, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Stephen Richardson | $68 | $69.06 | +142.7% | May 31, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $78 | $67.49 | +178.4% | May 24, 2022 |
| Barclays | Michael Leithead | $72 | $66.5 | +157.0% | May 2, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Bill Selesky | $81 | $67.81 | +189.1% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $76 | $66.17 | +171.2% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | David Begleiter | $74 | $69.51 | +164.1% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $68.5 | +185.5% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $70.64 | +185.5% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $76 | $69.51 | +171.2% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $69.51 | +149.8% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $82 | $69.51 | +192.6% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Chris Parkinson | $68 | $69.51 | +142.7% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Fermium Research | Frank Mitsch | $80 | $69.51 | +185.5% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Arun Viswanathan | $70 | $69.51 | +149.8% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $64 | $67.2 | +128.4% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Christopher Parkinson | $68 | $65.88 | +142.7% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | David Begleiter | $66 | $63.34 | +135.5% | Mar 21, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Sison | $72 | $59.46 | +157.0% | Jan 27, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Chris Parkinson | $65 | $58.55 | +132.0% | Jan 12, 2022 |
| Citigroup | PJ Juvekar | $63 | $58.47 | +124.8% | Jan 11, 2022 |
| Barclays | Duffy Fischer | $69 | $57 | +146.3% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| Wolfe Research | Josh Silverstein | $55 | $57.54 | +96.3% | Oct 18, 2021 |
| HSBC | Sriharsha Pappu | $52 | $60.98 | +85.6% | Jun 23, 2021 |
| Argus Research | Bill Selesky | $78 | $66.99 | +178.4% | Jun 8, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationDow Inc. is a global leader in materials science, delivering diverse solutions for key industries such as packaging, infrastructure development, mobility, and consumer products. The company's reach extends across numerous regions, including the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Its operations are structured into three main divisions: Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, and Performance Materials & Coatings. The Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment is responsible for producing foundational chemicals like ethylene, propylene, and aromatics, along with a range of polymers including polyethylene, polyolefin elastomers, ethylene vinyl acetate, and ethylene propylene diene monomer rubbers.…
Historical context
All DOW earningsBasic Materials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMY Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | 0.0% | -6.2% | Harmony Gold posts record FY2026 while Eva Copper risks remain |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-25T21:51:22.249375+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-25T21:51:22.246573+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-25. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.