Dow Inc. · DOW · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Dow beats Q1 EPS on tight polyethylene pricing, guides Q2 EBITDA to ~$2B as Carter takes the helm

Dow enters 2026 with earnings momentum from supply-driven polyethylene pricing plus a Transform to Outperform program targeting at least $2B of near-term EBITDA upside. Management's Q2 guide of roughly $2B EBITDA versus Q1's $873M rests on the Poly7 ramp, cost-out and a cost-advantaged Americas base. That margin case depends on geopolitical-tightened pricing and cost savings holding against feedstock inflation and a slower construction and industrial demand recovery; capital discipline and the Path2Zero returns support the downside.

Reported Before market openNYSEBasic Materials $20.63B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $-0.14 Consensus $-0.29
EPS surprise +51.9% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $9.79B Consensus $9.66B
Revenue surprise +1.4% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -0.7% Event window
SPY move -0.4% Same window
Abnormal move -0.3% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.5× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -6.8% Up to 20 sessions
DOWSPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about DOW FY2026 Q1

Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did DOW fall 0.7% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in DOW's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for DOW after FY2026 Q1 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Q1 2026 EPS of -$0.14 beat the -$0.29 consensus by ~52% on revenue of $9.79B (+1.4% vs. estimate), helped by $193M of cost savings and tight polyethylene markets. Management began a CEO transition to Karen Carter, suspended recognition of Sadara equity losses alongside an ~$100M annual cash commitment, launched the Poly7 train, and guided Q2 revenue near $12B with EBITDA near $2B.

Guidance delta

Maintained. Management guided Q2 2026 revenue near $12B and EBITDA near $2B, roughly doubling Q1's $873M, citing pricing momentum, seasonality and cost-out actions (Q1 cost savings of $193M).

Key takeaways

  • Q1 2026 EPS of -$0.14 beat the -$0.29 consensus by ~52% on revenue of $9.79B, up 1.4% versus the estimate
  • Tight polyethylene markets driven by Middle East supply disruptions lifted pricing and supported margin expansion
  • Transform to Outperform targets at least $2B of near-term EBITDA improvement, with roughly $400M expected in H2 2026
  • Management guided Q2 revenue near $12B and EBITDA near $2B on pricing, seasonality and cost savings
  • Karen Carter is set to become CEO; capex stays at or below depreciation with Path2Zero as the main large-scale project

Management priorities

  • Ramp the new Poly7 polyethylene train and capture incremental growth from new capacity
  • Continue Transform to Outperform execution and self-help cost-out actions
  • Complete European asset shutdowns, including the Barry, UK siloxane plant
  • Progress the Alberta Path2Zero project as the principal large-scale investment
  • Maintain a cost-advantaged Americas base and disciplined capital allocation

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
DOW EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $0.40 Q4 '23 actual $0.43, beat Q1 '24 estimate $0.45 Q1 '24 actual $0.56, beat Q2 '24 estimate $0.72 Q2 '24 actual $0.68, miss Q3 '24 estimate $0.46 Q3 '24 actual $0.47, beat Q2 '25 estimate $-0.17 Q2 '25 actual $-0.42, miss Q3 '25 estimate $-0.31 Q3 '25 actual $-0.19, beat Q4 '25 estimate $-0.46 Q4 '25 actual $-0.34, beat Q1 '26 estimate $-0.29 Q1 '26 actual $-0.14, beat Q2 '26 estimate $1.25 Q2 '26 actual $1.44, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.64 Q4 '26 estimate $0.37 Q1 '27 estimate $0.34 Q2 '27 estimate $0.57
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold35 ratings
Bullish1234.3%
Neutral1851.4%
Bearish514.3%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$28.02Current
$20Low
$47.35Average
$81High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 26, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 24, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 24, 2026
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainJul 20, 2026
BMO Capital Market Perform Market PerformMaintainJul 6, 2026
Alembic Global Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 2, 2026
Show 30 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $28.02. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$32$29.44 +14.2%Sep 17, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$32$29.36 +14.2%Jul 24, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$39$30.04 +39.2%Jul 20, 2026
Goldman SachsDuffy Fischer$34$29.68 +21.3%Jul 16, 2026
BMO CapitalAnalyst unavailable$33$27.71 +17.8%Jul 6, 2026
See 91 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Dow Inc. is a global leader in materials science, delivering diverse solutions for key industries such as packaging, infrastructure development, mobility, and consumer products. The company's reach extends across numerous regions, including the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Its operations are structured into three main divisions: Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, and Performance Materials & Coatings. The Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment is responsible for producing foundational chemicals like ethylene, propylene, and aromatics, along with a range of polymers including polyethylene, polyolefin elastomers, ethylene vinyl acetate, and ethylene propylene diene monomer rubbers.…

Historical context

All DOW earnings
-1.1%FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026

Basic Materials peers this season

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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-25T21:51:22.249375+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-25T21:51:22.246573+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-25. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.