Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy17 ratings
Bullish952.9%
Neutral741.2%
Bearish15.9%
HF Sinclair Corporation · DINO · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
HF Sinclair reports $2.3B FY2025 adjusted EBITDA; flags 2026 priorities
The call presents a mixed operating picture: full-year adjusted EBITDA was strong, but Q4 refining weakness and reliance on small-refinery exemption and RIN benefits make durability important to monitor. Lower 2026 capital guidance and pipeline and refinery projects define key execution priorities.
Reported Before market openNYSEEnergy
$19.71B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.20
Consensus $0.44
EPS surprise
+172.7%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$6.46B
Consensus $6.04B
Revenue surprise
+7.1%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-10.9%
Event window
SPY move
+0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
-11.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
5.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+16.2%
Up to 20 sessions
DINOSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about DINO FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did DINO fall 10.9% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in DINO's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for DINO after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The FY2025 call adds the full-year results and a 2026 capital-spending framework. Management also described Franklin Myers' temporary CEO appointment and an audit-committee review of disclosure processes, and announced Green Trail Fuels, a joint venture with U-Pop Holdings.
Guidance delta
Management lowered 2026 capital-spending guidance to $650 million for sustaining capex and $125 million for growth capex. The supplied analysis describes guidance sentiment as maintained; it does not provide a new refining-margin range.
Key takeaways
- Full-year adjusted EBITDA was $2.3 billion despite a weak Q4 refining segment.
- Small-refinery RIN waivers materially supported Q4 refinery gross margin and cash flow.
- The company highlighted Green Trail Fuels, the El Dorado vacuum furnace project and Phase 1 of its western refined-products pipeline.
Management priorities
- Complete the El Dorado vacuum furnace project during the Q4 turnaround.
- Advance Phase 1 of the western refined-products pipeline toward a mid-year final investment decision.
- Integrate Industrial Oils Unlimited and expand the Green Trail Fuels joint venture and Sinclair brand.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$115Current
$49Low
$95.62Average
$152High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 2, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 22, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Underperform | Peer Perform | Downgrade | Jul 14, 2025 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 10, 2024 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 15, 2024 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | May 11, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 10, 2022 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $115. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raymond James | Justin Jenkins | $150 | $111.96 | +30.4% | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Justin Jenkins | $160 | $114.21 | +39.1% | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $152 | $125.25 | +32.2% | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $135 | $128.23 | +17.4% | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $142 | $120.72 | +23.5% | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $119 | $115.63 | +3.5% | Oct 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $133 | $113.36 | +15.7% | Oct 3, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $105.85 | +21.7% | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $127 | $111.17 | +10.4% | Sep 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $126 | $105.41 | +9.6% | Sep 8, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $93 | $101.61 | -19.1% | Sep 1, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $85 | $87.26 | -26.1% | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $114 | $90 | -0.9% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $86 | $89.3 | -25.2% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Justin Jenkins | $105 | $89.3 | -8.7% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $80.97 | -17.4% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $81 | $78.07 | -29.6% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $78 | $69.9 | -32.2% | Jun 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $79 | $68.53 | -31.3% | May 27, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $81 | $74.5 | -29.6% | May 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $72.65 | -30.4% | May 5, 2026 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $70.16 | -30.4% | May 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $69 | $70.13 | -40.0% | May 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $71 | $69.17 | -38.3% | May 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joe Laetsch | $66 | $59.54 | -42.6% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $61 | $58.56 | -47.0% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $50.86 | -47.8% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $57 | $51.02 | -50.4% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $51.57 | -45.2% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $53 | $51.57 | -53.9% | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joe Laetsch | $61 | $49.35 | -47.0% | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $62 | $48.83 | -46.1% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $49.82 | -41.7% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $68 | $48.18 | -40.9% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $63 | $49.36 | -45.2% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $65 | $53.39 | -43.5% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $50.63 | -43.5% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $66 | $52.44 | -42.6% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joe Laetsch | $60 | $51.84 | -47.8% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $51.99 | -45.2% | Oct 2, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $52.34 | -53.0% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $60 | $51.64 | -47.8% | Sep 15, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $52.43 | -47.8% | Sep 9, 2025 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $58 | $49.22 | -49.6% | Aug 26, 2025 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $43 | $44.74 | -62.6% | Jul 9, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $32.36 | -69.6% | Mar 14, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $32.13 | -60.0% | Mar 7, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $53 | $44.51 | -53.9% | Oct 8, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $49 | $47.25 | -57.4% | Sep 20, 2024 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $53 | $46.76 | -53.9% | Aug 5, 2024 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $56 | $53.34 | -51.3% | Jul 1, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $61 | $52.14 | -47.0% | Jun 20, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $58 | $52.17 | -49.6% | Jun 14, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $65 | $56.21 | -43.5% | May 14, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $65 | $60 | -43.5% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $70 | $62.9 | -39.1% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $73 | $59.52 | -36.5% | Feb 14, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Phillip Jungwirth | $65 | $52.49 | -43.5% | Oct 5, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $50.52 | -52.2% | Jan 5, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $50.76 | -34.8% | Dec 19, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $56 | $50.75 | -51.3% | Aug 16, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $51 | $45.65 | -55.7% | Jul 5, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $53 | $45 | -53.9% | Jun 21, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $42.29 | -53.9% | May 10, 2022 |
Track every rating change on DINO the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationHF Sinclair Corporation operates as a prominent independent energy enterprise, engaged in the production and commercialization of a diverse array of petroleum products. Its offerings include conventional fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, alongside its growing renewable diesel segment. The company also specializes in unique lubricants, chemicals, and various types of asphalt. With a network of refineries strategically located in Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming, HF Sinclair primarily distributes its refined output across the Southwestern United States, the Rocky Mountain…
Historical context
All DINO earningsEnergy peers this season
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVX Chevron Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +8.4% | +1.8% | Chevron posts strong Q3 as production, cash flow and AI value rise |
| XOM Exxonmobil Holdings Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +2.7% | +2.2% | ExxonMobil Highlights Refining, LNG and Cash Returns in Q3 |
| IMO Imperial Oil Limited | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +6.4% | +5.5% | Imperial Oil: downstream strength and low-carbon growth lead Q3 |
| CCJ Cameco Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -101.4% | -7.9% | Cameco keeps nuclear-growth thesis intact as Key Lake outage weighs |
| BP BP p.l.c. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +22.6% | +0.1% | BP Q3: Strong profit, lower debt, safety risks persist |
| FSLR First Solar, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +13.5% | -1.4% | First Solar: Margin gains offset lower volume outlook |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CHDFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+2.2% EPS+1.2% move
- AZNFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+7.3% EPS+7.0% move
- FRTFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+3.9% EPS-1.1% move
- CVXFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+8.4% EPS+1.8% move
- BTSGFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+14.2% EPS+11.1% move
- EXCFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+10.4% EPS+0.5% move
Missed on EPS
- GLPIFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-11.5% EPS-1.3% move
- LYBFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-1.2% EPS+5.0% move
- CCJFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-101.4% EPS-7.9% move
- VALEFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-24.6% EPS+1.9% move
- DLR-PLFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
- DLR-PKFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
Get the DINO recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-02T02:10:48.620610+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-02T02:10:48.617669+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-02. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.