Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold52 ratings
Bullish2446.1%
Neutral2548.1%
Bearish35.8%
D.R. Horton, Inc. · DHI · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026
D.R. Horton Beats Margin Targets But Lowers Full-Year Guidance on Softer Demand
D.R. Horton delivered a margin beat in Q3 FY2026, with home sales gross margin of 20.7% and pretax margin of 13.3% both exceeding the top end of guidance, driven by stick-and-brick cost reductions and a slight decline in incentive intensity. However, the beat was overshadowed by management's decision to lower full-year guidance for the second consecutive quarter, citing softer demand and cancellations rising to 20% from 17% a year ago. The market reacted negatively on the report session (-1.7% abnormal move) though the stock partially recovered over subsequent trading (+2.5% drift). The tension between strong margin execution and weakening demand visibility defines the investment case.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$41.16B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationEstablished in Arlington, Texas, in 1978, D.R. Horton, Inc. operates as a prominent residential construction enterprise. The company's core business involves acquiring and preparing land, then constructing and marketing homes across a substantial portion of the United States. Its operations span 31 states and 98 distinct markets, covering the East, North, Southeast, South Central, Southwest, and Northwest regions. Under several well-known brand names, including D.R. Horton, America's Builder, Express Homes, Emerald Homes, and Freedom Homes, the firm develops diverse housing types.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$3.20
Consensus $3
EPS surprise
+6.0%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$9.23B
Consensus $9.10B
Revenue surprise
+1.4%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$147.16Current
$61Low
$145.95Average
$210High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Zelman & Assoc | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 7, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 23, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Citizens | Market Perform | Market Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 23, 2025 |
| JP Morgan | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Apr 21, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Apr 21, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Nov 7, 2024 |
| BTIG | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 19, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 21, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 1, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Mar 22, 2023 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jan 26, 2023 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Perform | Maintain | Jan 19, 2023 |
| Janney Capital | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 22, 2021 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Neutral | Upgrade | Nov 11, 2020 |
| CFRA | Strong Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 13, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 26, 2020 |
| Buckingham Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 31, 2019 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 22, 2019 |
| Buckingham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 16, 2019 |
| Mizuho | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 23, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 16, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 1, 2018 |
| BTIG Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 8, 2017 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 22, 2016 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 22, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 22, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 22, 2016 |
| FBN Securities | Underperform | Sector Perform | Downgrade | Apr 18, 2016 |
| MKM Partners | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 28, 2015 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jan 15, 2015 |
| Compass Point | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 12, 2014 |
| ISI Group | Strong Buy | Buy | Upgrade | Apr 25, 2014 |
| S&P Capital IQ | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Jan 28, 2014 |
| CRT Capital | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 29, 2013 |
| Gilford Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 9, 2013 |
| Topeka | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Dec 7, 2012 |
| Williams Financial | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 17, 2012 |
| Williams Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 17, 2012 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 23, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $147.16. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $184 | $143.52 | +25.0% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $141 | $148.85 | -4.2% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Susan Maklari | $190 | $162.2 | +29.1% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $144.51 | -4.9% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Jonathan Bettenhausen | $155 | $152.61 | +5.3% | Mar 3, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $163 | $149.1 | +10.8% | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Chris Graja | $185 | $154.55 | +25.7% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $182 | $156.71 | +23.7% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $129 | $153.19 | -12.3% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $158 | $153.19 | +7.4% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| UBS | John Lovallo | $193 | $153.19 | +31.1% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $159.71 | +32.5% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $191 | $146.48 | +29.8% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Sam Reid | $155 | $146.48 | +5.3% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $132 | $158.62 | -10.3% | Dec 8, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Sam Reid | $180 | $158.62 | +22.3% | Dec 8, 2025 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $186 | $157.37 | +26.4% | Dec 1, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $153.75 | +32.5% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $169 | $171.53 | +14.8% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Mike Dahl | $117 | $149 | -20.5% | Jul 23, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $120.76 | -28.6% | Apr 21, 2025 |
| BTIG | Carl Reichardt | $150 | $117.54 | +1.9% | Apr 16, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Mike Dahl | $125 | $136.52 | -15.1% | Jan 10, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Mike Dahl | $145 | $169.29 | -1.5% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Anthony Pettinari | $185 | $167.32 | +25.7% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| UBS | John Lovallo | $217 | $173.42 | +47.5% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| JMP Securities | Aaron Hecht | $210 | $173.42 | +42.7% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $200 | $173.42 | +35.9% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Mike Dahl | $141 | $145.88 | -4.2% | Apr 19, 2024 |
| BTIG | Carl Reichardt | $169 | $149.07 | +14.8% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $186 | $159.42 | +26.4% | Apr 4, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Jay McCanless | $130 | $161.88 | -11.7% | Apr 2, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | William Stein | $193 | $140.5 | +31.1% | Jan 29, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Sam Reid | $123 | $104.93 | -16.4% | Oct 17, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Susan Maklari | $131 | $103.66 | -11.0% | Oct 16, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $96.4 | -33.4% | Jan 12, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Buck Horne | $61 | $92.99 | -58.5% | Jan 9, 2023 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $101 | $83.56 | -31.4% | Dec 6, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $81.62 | -32.0% | Nov 22, 2022 |
| KeyBanc | Kenneth Zener | $84 | $72.44 | -42.9% | Sep 19, 2022 |
| BTIG | Carl Reichardt | $92 | $78.23 | -37.5% | Aug 2, 2022 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $95 | $75.36 | -35.4% | Jul 26, 2022 |
| BTIG | Carl Reichardt | $97 | $60.56 | -34.1% | Jun 20, 2022 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $104 | $70.09 | -29.3% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Mike Dahl | $89 | $72.21 | -39.5% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Michael Rehaul | $82.5 | $72.51 | -43.9% | Apr 15, 2022 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $104 | $76.18 | -29.3% | Apr 3, 2022 |
| Seaport Global | Mark Weintraub | $115 | $98.27 | -21.9% | Jan 14, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Susan Maklari | $119 | $97.29 | -19.1% | Dec 1, 2021 |
| Raymond James | Buck Horne | $120 | $101.05 | -18.5% | Nov 17, 2021 |
| Wells Fargo | Deepa Raghavan | $115 | $96.83 | -21.9% | Nov 15, 2021 |
| Bank of America Securities | Rafe Jadrosich | $120 | $94.56 | -18.5% | Nov 10, 2021 |
| Evercore ISI | Stephen Kim | $159 | $94.56 | +8.0% | Nov 10, 2021 |
| Wedbush | Jay McCanless | $125 | $91.88 | -15.1% | Jul 26, 2021 |
| Argus Research | Chris Graja | $110 | $99.52 | -25.3% | Apr 26, 2021 |
Track every rating change on DHI the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-0.9%
Event window
SPY move
+0.8%
Same window
Abnormal move
-1.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.4×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+2.5%
Up to 20 sessions
DHISPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Compared to Q2 FY2026, pretax margin expanded from 11.5% to 13.3% and gross margin rose to 20.7%, beating the guided 19.7%-20.2% range. Rental pretax income grew from $12 million to $31 million. Cancellation rates worsened to 20% from 17% a year earlier. The average rate buyback fell from 1.7% to 1.6%, with the company's offered mortgage rate of 4.9% remaining well below the ~6.5% market rate. Management lowered full-year guidance again after narrowing and reducing the top end in Q2.
Guidance delta
Prior Q3 guidance called for revenue of $8.8-$9.3 billion and 23,500-24,000 closings; actuals were $9.23 billion and 23,983 homes, both within range. Gross margin guidance of 19.7%-20.2% was exceeded at 20.7%, and pretax margin guidance of 12.2%-12.7% was exceeded at 13.3%. New Q4 guidance targets revenue of $8.8-$9.3 billion, 22,500-23,000 closings, and gross margin of 20.5%-21%. Full-year FY2026 guidance was lowered due to softer demand.
Key takeaways
- Gross margin of 20.7% beat the top end of guidance (19.7%-20.2%), driven by stick-and-brick cost reductions and lower incentives.
- EPS of $3.20 exceeded the consensus estimate of $3.02 by 6%, and revenue of $9.23 billion topped estimates of $9.10 billion.
- Full-year FY2026 guidance was lowered for the second consecutive quarter, reflecting softer demand and rising cancellations (20% vs 17% prior year).
- Rental operations generated $31 million pretax income with $3 billion in rental inventory, up from $12 million in Q2.
- Management plans to reduce Q4 starts and focus on margin preservation while continuing share repurchases (~$2.5B for FY) and dividends.
Management priorities
- Preserve gross margins through cost discipline and incentive management in a softer demand environment.
- Reduce Q4 starts to align inventory with demand while maintaining lot pipeline through Forestar and third-party developers.
- Continue capital allocation to share repurchases (~$2.5 billion for FY) and dividends ($500 million).
- Maintain rental inventory around $3 billion and pursue additional multifamily projects.
- Evaluate off-site manufacturing and AI technologies for construction efficiency.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-21T16:02:27.311911+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-30T01:23:13.872335+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-30T03:41:04.089355+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-30T03:41:04.086726+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.