Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy45 ratings
Bullish2760.0%
Neutral1635.6%
Bearish24.4%
CSX Corporation · CSX · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
CSX Q2 2026: Record Revenue Up 10%, EPS Beats as Intermodal Surges 26%
CSX delivered a record second quarter with revenue rising 10% on 6% volume growth, expanding operating margins by 240 basis points and driving 23% EPS growth. The beat was powered by intermodal revenue growth of 26%, benefiting from truck capacity constraints and new infrastructure capacity from the Howard Street Tunnel. Management raised full-year guidance for the second consecutive quarter, now projecting mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth, over 350 bps of margin expansion, and greater than 80% free cash flow growth. The stock's approximately 7% abnormal move on 2.4x baseline volume signals the market endorsed the operating leverage story, though subsequent drift of approximately -3.7% suggests some profit-taking. The key question ahead is whether service metrics can stabilize as crew shortages persist and modest headcount additions are absorbed.
Reported After market closeNASDAQIndustrials
$94.18B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationCSX Corporation, operating through its subsidiaries, stands as a leading provider of rail-based cargo transportation services. The company offers a wide range of services, including general rail freight, the movement of intermodal containers and trailers, and specialized transport solutions such as efficient rail-to-truck transfers and the handling of bulk commodities. CSX facilitates the shipment of a diverse array of goods, encompassing industrial chemicals, agricultural and food products, automotive components and finished vehicles, minerals, timber products, fertilizers, and various metals and heavy equipment. Additionally, it plays a crucial role in energy supply chains, transporting coal, coke, and iron ore to power generation facilities, steel manufacturers, and industrial plants, and also manages the export of coal via deep-water port access.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.54
Consensus $1
EPS surprise
+4.2%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$3.94B
Consensus $3.89B
Revenue surprise
+1.0%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$50.84Current
$25Low
$44.29Average
$105High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Benchmark | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Mar 31, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 17, 2025 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 3, 2025 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jan 24, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 25, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 21, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jan 26, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 29, 2022 |
| TD Securities | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 18, 2022 |
| Atlantic Equities | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 23, 2020 |
| CFRA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 23, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 17, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 6, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Perform | Sector Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 12, 2018 |
| Avondale Partners | Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Feb 10, 2017 |
| Aegis Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 24, 2016 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 19, 2016 |
| BB&T Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 15, 2016 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jun 16, 2016 |
| CLSA | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | May 19, 2016 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 14, 2016 |
| Buckingham Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 14, 2016 |
| Topeka | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 10, 2015 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 12, 2014 |
| FBR Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 24, 2014 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 19, 2012 |
| Bank oferica | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 15, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $50.84. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $59 | $53.2 | +16.1% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Walter Spracklin | $54 | $52.68 | +6.2% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $52.68 | +6.2% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $52.11 | +2.3% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $51 | $52.42 | +0.3% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $49.93 | +18.0% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $49.64 | +14.1% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $56 | $49.8 | +10.1% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $49.56 | -9.5% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Daniel Moore | $53 | $48.81 | +4.2% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $32 | $49.12 | -37.1% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $55 | $46.06 | +8.2% | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $46.06 | -7.6% | Jun 25, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $51 | $46.68 | +0.3% | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $46.9 | +4.2% | Jun 17, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $46.99 | -1.7% | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $44.84 | -9.5% | May 11, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $46.18 | -7.6% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $46.44 | -1.7% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Walter Spracklin | $47 | $45.99 | -7.6% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $43.18 | -11.5% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| New Street | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $43.18 | -3.6% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $43.18 | -7.6% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $41 | $43.18 | -19.4% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Vertical Research | Analyst unavailable | $44 | $43.18 | -13.5% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $42.51 | -11.5% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $43 | $39.55 | -15.4% | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $37.34 | -23.3% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $37.36 | -21.3% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $36 | $35.78 | -29.2% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Walter Spracklin | $40 | $36.63 | -21.3% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $36.3 | -41.0% | Dec 8, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $36.6 | -21.3% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Moore | $42 | $37.02 | -17.4% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Q3 EPS | $39 | $35.99 | -23.3% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $45 | $35.99 | -11.5% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $34 | $33.78 | -33.1% | Sep 25, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Christian Wetherbee | $40 | $33.82 | -21.3% | Sep 25, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $32.75 | -23.3% | Sep 18, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Daniel Moore | $44 | $35.76 | -13.5% | Jul 25, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $32 | $27.84 | -37.1% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $37 | $29.92 | -27.2% | Mar 27, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $34 | $31.26 | -33.1% | Mar 7, 2025 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Rick Paterson | $34 | $32.51 | -33.1% | Feb 3, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Walter Spracklin | $35 | $35.47 | -31.2% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Christian Wetherbee | $34 | $35.47 | -33.1% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Moore | $37 | $35.47 | -27.2% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $39 | $35.47 | -23.3% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $37 | $35.47 | -27.2% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Ariel Rosa | $41 | $35.47 | -19.4% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $42 | $34.52 | -17.4% | Oct 2, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $40 | $34.14 | -21.3% | Sep 25, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Scott Group | $38 | $33.69 | -25.3% | Aug 23, 2024 |
| Stephens | Daniel Imbro | $42 | $33.3 | -17.4% | Jul 8, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Garrett Holland | $39 | $34.46 | -23.3% | Apr 18, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $40 | $34.24 | -21.3% | Apr 18, 2024 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $44 | $34.16 | -13.5% | Apr 18, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Walter Spracklin | $36 | $34.16 | -29.2% | Apr 18, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Moore | $38 | $34.16 | -25.3% | Apr 18, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Moore | $40 | $36.3 | -21.3% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Chris Caso | $105 | $34.55 | +106.5% | Jan 22, 2024 |
| J.P. Morgan | Brian Ossenbeck | $40 | $30.87 | -21.3% | Oct 19, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $37 | $33.71 | -27.2% | Jul 21, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $32.24 | -52.8% | Jan 11, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $32 | $31 | -37.1% | Jan 4, 2023 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $38 | $31.7 | -25.3% | Nov 29, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $31.7 | -23.3% | Nov 29, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $27.34 | -54.8% | Oct 3, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $27.19 | -31.2% | Sep 30, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $26.98 | -41.0% | Sep 29, 2022 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $32 | $31.23 | -37.1% | Sep 14, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Ariel Rosa | $37 | $30.99 | -27.2% | Jul 21, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $37 | $30.9 | -27.2% | Jul 21, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $31.04 | -21.3% | Jul 21, 2022 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $31.07 | -31.2% | Jul 21, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $29.73 | -31.2% | Jul 21, 2022 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Rick Paterson | $38 | $29.73 | -25.3% | Jul 21, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $28.18 | -41.0% | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Benjamin Nolan | $37 | $28.18 | -27.2% | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $28.17 | -23.3% | Jul 13, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $33 | $28.42 | -35.1% | Jul 12, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Ariel Rosa | $35 | $28.99 | -31.2% | Jul 11, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $29.03 | -31.2% | Jul 8, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $36 | $28.74 | -29.2% | Jul 6, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $36.93 | -11.5% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $35.3 | -21.3% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Ken Hoexter | $38 | $35.06 | -25.3% | Apr 18, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ravi Shanker | $25 | $34 | -50.8% | Jan 21, 2022 |
| Stephens | Justin Long | $41 | $34 | -19.4% | Jan 21, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Scott Group | $40 | $34 | -21.3% | Jan 21, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Brian Ossenbeck | $39 | $36.53 | -23.3% | Jan 12, 2022 |
| Benchmark Co. | Mark Levin | $41 | $36.19 | -19.4% | Jan 11, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Christian Wetherbee | $45 | $37.33 | -11.5% | Jan 5, 2022 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $42 | $36.36 | -17.4% | Dec 15, 2021 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $41 | $35.81 | -19.4% | Dec 14, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jordan Alliger | $38 | $34.81 | -25.3% | Oct 21, 2021 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $41 | $34.81 | -19.4% | Oct 21, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Benjamin Nolan | $39 | $34.81 | -23.3% | Oct 21, 2021 |
| TD Securities | Cherilyn Radbourne | $38 | $32.4 | -25.3% | Jul 22, 2021 |
Track every rating change on CSX the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+5.8%
Event window
SPY move
-1.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
+7.0%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.4×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-3.7%
Up to 20 sessions
CSXSPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Compared to Q1 2026, where revenue grew 2% on 3% volume with a guidance raise to mid-single-digit revenue growth and 200-300 bps margin expansion, Q2 accelerated sharply. Revenue growth stepped up to 10%, volume to 6%, and the guidance raise moved to mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth with over 350 bps of margin expansion and over 80% FCF growth. Intermodal revenue surged 26% versus the more modest growth implied in Q1. Non-fuel expenses continued down 2%. Fuel efficiency improved for a fourth consecutive quarter. However, service metrics including terminal dwell deteriorated as crew shortages intensified despite a 6% headcount reduction, a new concern not flagged in Q1.
Guidance delta
Management raised full-year guidance for the second consecutive quarter. The prior quarter's outlook called for mid-single-digit revenue growth and 200-300 bps of operating margin expansion. The updated guidance lifts to mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth, over 350 bps of margin expansion, and over 80% free cash flow growth. Capex outlook remains stable.
Key takeaways
- Q2 revenue rose 10% to $3.94B with volume up 6%, beating consensus revenue estimates by approximately 1%.
- EPS of $0.54 beat consensus by approximately 4.3%, delivering 23% EPS growth and 240 bps of margin expansion.
- Intermodal revenue surged 26%, driven by truck-to-rail conversions, tighter truck capacity, and new Howard Street Tunnel capacity.
- Full-year guidance raised to mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth, over 350 bps margin expansion, and over 80% FCF growth.
- Non-fuel expenses fell 2% as cost discipline and headcount reductions offset higher labor costs.
- Export coal tonnage rose 12% year-over-year on mine restarts and record Curtis Bay throughput.
Management priorities
- Stabilize service metrics by addressing crew shortages with modest headcount increases.
- Leverage new Howard Street Tunnel and CPKC SMX partnership capacity to capture intermodal growth.
- Continue non-fuel expense discipline through insourcing and productivity initiatives.
- Develop AI-driven pricing tools for margin management.
- Maintain safety improvements and fuel efficiency gains.
Related earnings events
IndustrialsLMT · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026Lockheed Martin Q2 2026: Record $230B Backlog, Raised Guidance, Ultra Maritime AcquisitionUNP · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026UNP Q2 2026: Record EPS $3.41, Guidance Raised as Norfolk Southern Merger Clears Key HurdlesRTX · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026RTX Q2 2026: Record $289B Backlog, Raised Guidance as Defense and GTF Aftermarket Accelerate
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-23T01:05:22.283823+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-29T01:23:15.868211+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-29T03:43:07.050041+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T03:43:07.047882+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.