Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy45 ratings
Bullish2760.0%
Neutral1635.6%
Bearish24.4%
CSX Corporation · CSX · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
CSX Maintains 2026 Outlook as Mix Headwinds Weigh on Revenue
The supplied analysis supports a mixed but constructive operating thesis: intermodal expansion, new double-stack capacity, pricing initiatives, and productivity could support improvement, while Q4 mix pressure, below-consensus results, inflation, and soft demand remain material offsets.
Reported After market closeNASDAQIndustrials
$86.94B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.39
Consensus $0.41
EPS surprise
-5.1%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$3.51B
Consensus $3.54B
Revenue surprise
-0.9%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+2.4%
Event window
SPY move
+0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
+2.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+14.5%
Up to 20 sessions
CSXSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about CSX FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did CSX rise 2.4% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in CSX's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for CSX after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis adds a maintained 2026 outlook alongside 1% Q4 volume growth but a 1% revenue decline from mix and coal pricing. It also identifies a $150 million non-recurring cost base, productivity efforts targeting 200–300 basis points of operating-ratio improvement, and intermodal and double-stack expansion as central priorities.
Guidance delta
Management maintained guidance: low single-digit revenue growth, 200–300 basis-point margin expansion, capex below $2.4 billion, and free cash flow up at least 50% versus 2025.
Key takeaways
- Q4 volume rose 1%, but revenue fell 1% because of commodity mix and coal-pricing headwinds.
- Management highlighted intermodal growth, double-stack capacity, and productivity initiatives as key operating levers.
- The supplied scorecard shows EPS of $0.39 versus $0.411 estimated and revenue of $3.508 billion versus $3.541 billion estimated.
- The prior quarter emphasized completed infrastructure projects, improved service metrics, and potential capacity gains.
Management priorities
- Ramp double-stack service through the Howard Street tunnel
- Execute workforce optimization and more than 100 cost-saving initiatives
- Improve pricing structures and price-yield management
- Maintain disciplined capital spending and safety improvements
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$46.91Current
$25Low
$44.5Average
$105High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Benchmark | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Mar 31, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 17, 2025 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 3, 2025 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jan 24, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 25, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 21, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jan 26, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 29, 2022 |
| TD Securities | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 18, 2022 |
| Atlantic Equities | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 23, 2020 |
| CFRA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 23, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 17, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 6, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Perform | Sector Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 12, 2018 |
| Avondale Partners | Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Feb 10, 2017 |
| Aegis Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 24, 2016 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 19, 2016 |
| BB&T Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 15, 2016 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jun 16, 2016 |
| CLSA | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | May 19, 2016 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 14, 2016 |
| Buckingham Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 14, 2016 |
| Topeka | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 10, 2015 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 12, 2014 |
| FBR Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 24, 2014 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 19, 2012 |
| Bank oferica | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 15, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $46.9. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $47.2 | +13.0% | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $56 | $50.15 | +19.4% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $59 | $53.2 | +25.8% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Walter Spracklin | $54 | $52.68 | +15.1% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $52.68 | +15.1% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $52.11 | +10.9% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $51 | $52.42 | +8.7% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $49.93 | +27.9% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $49.64 | +23.7% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $56 | $49.8 | +19.4% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $49.56 | -1.9% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Daniel Moore | $53 | $48.81 | +13.0% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $32 | $49.12 | -31.8% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $55 | $46.06 | +17.3% | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $46.06 | +0.2% | Jun 25, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $51 | $46.68 | +8.7% | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $46.9 | +13.0% | Jun 17, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $46.99 | +6.6% | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $44.84 | -1.9% | May 11, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $46.18 | +0.2% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $46.44 | +6.6% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Walter Spracklin | $47 | $45.99 | +0.2% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $43.18 | -4.1% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| New Street | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $43.18 | +4.5% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $43.18 | +0.2% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $41 | $43.18 | -12.6% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Vertical Research | Analyst unavailable | $44 | $43.18 | -6.2% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $42.51 | -4.1% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $43 | $39.55 | -8.3% | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $37.34 | -16.9% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $37.36 | -14.7% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $36 | $35.78 | -23.2% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Walter Spracklin | $40 | $36.63 | -14.7% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $36.3 | -36.0% | Dec 8, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $36.6 | -14.7% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Moore | $42 | $37.02 | -10.5% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Q3 EPS | $39 | $35.99 | -16.9% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $45 | $35.99 | -4.1% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $34 | $33.78 | -27.5% | Sep 25, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Christian Wetherbee | $40 | $33.82 | -14.7% | Sep 25, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $32.75 | -16.9% | Sep 18, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Daniel Moore | $44 | $35.76 | -6.2% | Jul 25, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $32 | $27.84 | -31.8% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $37 | $29.92 | -21.1% | Mar 27, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $34 | $31.26 | -27.5% | Mar 7, 2025 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Rick Paterson | $34 | $32.51 | -27.5% | Feb 3, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Walter Spracklin | $35 | $35.47 | -25.4% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Christian Wetherbee | $34 | $35.47 | -27.5% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Moore | $37 | $35.47 | -21.1% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $39 | $35.47 | -16.9% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $37 | $35.47 | -21.1% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Ariel Rosa | $41 | $35.47 | -12.6% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $42 | $34.52 | -10.5% | Oct 2, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $40 | $34.14 | -14.7% | Sep 25, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Scott Group | $38 | $33.69 | -19.0% | Aug 23, 2024 |
| Stephens | Daniel Imbro | $42 | $33.3 | -10.5% | Jul 8, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Garrett Holland | $39 | $34.46 | -16.9% | Apr 18, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $40 | $34.24 | -14.7% | Apr 18, 2024 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $44 | $34.16 | -6.2% | Apr 18, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Walter Spracklin | $36 | $34.16 | -23.2% | Apr 18, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Moore | $38 | $34.16 | -19.0% | Apr 18, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Moore | $40 | $36.3 | -14.7% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Chris Caso | $105 | $34.55 | +123.9% | Jan 22, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Christian Wetherbee | $38 | $30.87 | -19.0% | Oct 19, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $37 | $33.71 | -21.1% | Jul 21, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $32.24 | -48.8% | Jan 11, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $32 | $31 | -31.8% | Jan 4, 2023 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $38 | $31.7 | -19.0% | Nov 29, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $31.7 | -16.9% | Nov 29, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $27.34 | -51.0% | Oct 3, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $27.19 | -25.4% | Sep 30, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $26.98 | -36.0% | Sep 29, 2022 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $32 | $31.23 | -31.8% | Sep 14, 2022 |
| Stephens | Justin Long | $35 | $30.99 | -25.4% | Jul 21, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $37 | $30.9 | -21.1% | Jul 21, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $31.04 | -14.7% | Jul 21, 2022 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $31.07 | -25.4% | Jul 21, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $29.73 | -25.4% | Jul 21, 2022 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Rick Paterson | $38 | $29.73 | -19.0% | Jul 21, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $28.18 | -36.0% | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Benjamin Nolan | $37 | $28.18 | -21.1% | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $28.17 | -16.9% | Jul 13, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $33 | $28.42 | -29.6% | Jul 12, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Ariel Rosa | $35 | $28.99 | -25.4% | Jul 11, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $29.03 | -25.4% | Jul 8, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $36 | $28.74 | -23.2% | Jul 6, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $36.93 | -4.1% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $35.3 | -14.7% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Ken Hoexter | $38 | $35.06 | -19.0% | Apr 18, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ravi Shanker | $25 | $34 | -46.7% | Jan 21, 2022 |
| Stephens | Justin Long | $41 | $34 | -12.6% | Jan 21, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Scott Group | $40 | $34 | -14.7% | Jan 21, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Brian Ossenbeck | $39 | $36.53 | -16.9% | Jan 12, 2022 |
| Benchmark Co. | Mark Levin | $41 | $36.19 | -12.6% | Jan 11, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Christian Wetherbee | $45 | $37.33 | -4.1% | Jan 5, 2022 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $42 | $36.36 | -10.5% | Dec 15, 2021 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $41 | $35.81 | -12.6% | Dec 14, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jordan Alliger | $38 | $34.81 | -19.0% | Oct 21, 2021 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $41 | $34.81 | -12.6% | Oct 21, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Benjamin Nolan | $39 | $34.81 | -16.9% | Oct 21, 2021 |
| TD Securities | Cherilyn Radbourne | $38 | $32.4 | -19.0% | Jul 22, 2021 |
Track every rating change on CSX the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationCSX Corporation, operating through its subsidiaries, stands as a leading provider of rail-based cargo transportation services. The company offers a wide range of services, including general rail freight, the movement of intermodal containers and trailers, and specialized transport solutions such as efficient rail-to-truck transfers and the handling of bulk commodities. CSX facilitates the shipment of a diverse array of goods, encompassing industrial chemicals, agricultural and food products, automotive components and finished vehicles, minerals, timber products, fertilizers, and various metals and heavy equipment. Additionally, it plays a crucial role in energy supply chains, transporting coal, coke, and iron ore to power generation facilities, steel manufacturers, and industrial plants, and also manages the export of coal via deep-water port access.…
Historical context
All CSX earningsIndustrials peers this season
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| SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +19.2% | +5.9% | Sunbelt raises FY27 outlook as specialty rental demand accelerates |
| FRO Frontline Plc | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.0% | +1.0% | Frontline posts a record quarter as tanker rates remain elevated |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CCLFY2026 Q3 · September 29, 2026+5.9% EPS+13.4% move
- COSTFY2026 Q4 · September 24, 2026+3.2% EPS+2.9% move
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Get the CSX recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-30T16:36:05.489058+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-30T16:36:05.486290+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.