Costco Wholesale Corporation · COST · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2025

Costco growth remains strong as digital members and investment add risk

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but qualified view of Costco's operating trajectory: growth in sales, membership and digital activity is accompanied by stable margins, while renewal softness, cost pressures and elevated investment leave execution risks to monitor.

Reported After market closeNASDAQConsumer Defensive $397.57B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $4.34 Consensus $4.27
EPS surprise +1.6% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $67.31B Consensus $67.14B
Revenue surprise +0.2% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -0.0% Event window
SPY move -1.1% Same window
Abnormal move +1.1% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.9× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +6.5% Up to 20 sessions
COSTSPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about COST FY2026 Q1

Transcript, numbers and history already loaded

Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.

Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, the supplied analysis adds evidence of AI-enabled pharmacy inventory improvements, broader personalization tools and continued digital expansion. It also highlights higher health-care costs, slight renewal-rate softness among newer digital members and elevated capex as ongoing constraints.

Guidance delta

No new guidance was provided in the supplied analysis. Management's stated plans continue to emphasize 30+ annual warehouse openings, digital investment and operational initiatives.

Key takeaways

  • The supplied analysis describes strong top-line growth supported by warehouse openings, member upgrades and digital initiatives.
  • Membership and fee income continued to expand, while renewal rates showed slight softness among newer digital members.
  • Margins held steady, but higher health-care costs and elevated capex remain important watch items.
  • AI, personalization and same-day delivery initiatives are intended to improve productivity and member engagement.

Management priorities

  • Continue opening 30+ warehouses annually, including relocations and remodels.
  • Deploy AI tools across pharmacy, gas and other ancillary businesses.
  • Expand personalization and digital wallet capabilities across web and mobile platforms.
  • Grow same-day delivery partnerships and retail media offerings.
  • Add Kirkland Signature items while expanding real-estate capacity.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
COST EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 8 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $3.62 Q2 '24 actual $3.92, beat Q3 '24 estimate $3.70 Q3 '24 actual $3.78, beat Q4 '24 estimate $5.08 Q4 '24 actual $5.15, beat Q4 '25 estimate $5.80 Q4 '25 actual $5.87, beat Q1 '26 estimate $4.27 Q1 '26 actual $4.34, beat Q2 '26 estimate $4.55 Q2 '26 actual $4.58, beat Q3 '26 estimate $5.00 Q3 '26 actual $4.93, miss Q4 '26 estimate $6.54 Q4 '26 actual $6.75, beat Q1 '27 estimate $4.88 Q2 '27 estimate $5.12 Q3 '27 estimate $5.41 Q4 '27 estimate $7.14

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy59 ratings
Bullish3966.1%
Neutral1932.2%
Bearish11.7%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$896.48Previous close
$491Low
$929.45Average
$1,275High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 25, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainSep 23, 2026
Oppenheimer Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 16, 2026
B of A Securities Buy BuyMaintainSep 16, 2026
Freedom Broker Buy HoldUpgradeSep 8, 2026
DA Davidson Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 3, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 9, 2026
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainJun 3, 2026
Truist Securities Hold HoldMaintainMay 29, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainMay 20, 2026
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainApr 9, 2026
Telsey Advisory Group Outperform OutperformMaintainApr 9, 2026
BMO Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainMar 6, 2026
Evercore ISI Group Outperform OutperformMaintainFeb 10, 2026
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainFeb 3, 2026
Northcoast Research Buy NeutralUpgradeDec 24, 2025
Roth Capital Sell NeutralDowngradeDec 15, 2025
Goldman Sachs Buy BuyMaintainDec 12, 2025
Bernstein Outperform OutperformMaintainDec 12, 2025
Baird Outperform OutperformMaintainDec 12, 2025
Citigroup Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 29, 2025
Argus Research Buy BuyMaintainSep 29, 2025
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainMay 30, 2025
Loop Capital Buy BuyMaintainMay 30, 2025
Stifel Buy BuyMaintainMar 20, 2025
Barclays Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainMar 10, 2025
Raymond James Market Perform Market PerformMaintainDec 16, 2024
Roth MKM Neutral NeutralMaintainDec 13, 2024
Deutsche Bank Buy BuyMaintainDec 13, 2024
Jefferies Buy BuyMaintainDec 5, 2024
Tigress Financial Buy BuyMaintainOct 17, 2024
Redburn Atlantic Neutral BuyDowngradeSep 10, 2024
Gordon Haskett Buy AccumulateMaintainAug 8, 2024
William Blair Outperform OutperformMaintainApr 13, 2023
Cowen & Co. Outperform OutperformMaintainJan 23, 2023
Credit Suisse Neutral NeutralMaintainMay 27, 2022
R5 Capital Hold BuyDowngradeDec 13, 2021
MKM Partners Neutral NeutralMaintainDec 8, 2021
RBC Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainMay 28, 2021
Atlantic Equities Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 13, 2020
Nomura Neutral NeutralMaintainMar 6, 2020
Bank of America Buy BuyMaintainOct 4, 2019
Stifel Nicolaus Buy BuyMaintainJul 11, 2019
Citi Neutral NeutralMaintainMay 31, 2019
Argus Buy BuyMaintainMay 30, 2018
Moffett Nathanson Buy BuyMaintainDec 4, 2017
Susquehanna Outperform PositiveMaintainFeb 10, 2017
Edward Jones Buy HoldUpgradeNov 9, 2016
Wolfe Research Peer Perform OutperformDowngradeApr 29, 2016
Cleveland Research Neutral BuyDowngradeFeb 26, 2016
Sterne Agee CRT Buy BuyMaintainOct 2, 2015
Sterne Agee Buy BuyMaintainOct 2, 2015
Macquarie Neutral NeutralMaintainJun 9, 2015
Janney Montgomery Scott Neutral BuyDowngradeDec 12, 2014
Janney Capital Neutral BuyDowngradeDec 12, 2014
Williams Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 24, 2013
PiperJaffray Overweight OverweightMaintainMar 6, 2013
Piper Sandler Overweight OverweightMaintainMar 6, 2013
McAdams Wright Ragen Hold HoldMaintainDec 13, 2012
ISI Group Buy HoldUpgradeMay 10, 2012
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Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $896.48. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Deutsche BankKrisztina Katai$1,091$922.96 +21.7%Sep 4, 2026
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$1,144$925.41 +27.6%Sep 4, 2026
Deutsche BankKrisztina Katai$1,120$946.96 +24.9%Aug 6, 2026
RBC CapitalSteven Shemesh$1,000$916.25 +11.5%Jul 13, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesDavid Bellinger$1,100$956.32 +22.7%Jun 1, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$1,011$946.74 +12.8%May 29, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$1,275$1,083.01 +42.2%May 20, 2026
OppenheimerRupesh Parikh$1,160$1,076.47 +29.4%May 19, 2026
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$1,192$999.47 +33.0%May 12, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$1,106$998.89 +23.4%May 7, 2026
Telsey AdvisoryAnalyst unavailable$1,135$1,032.03 +26.6%Apr 9, 2026
Deutsche BankKrisztina Katai$1,104$1,032.03 +23.1%Apr 9, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$1,000$1,032.03 +11.5%Apr 9, 2026
Raymond JamesBobby Griffin$1,100$997.28 +22.7%Mar 6, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$1,175$987.68 +31.1%Mar 6, 2026
JefferiesCorey Tarlowe$1,050$982.57 +17.1%Mar 5, 2026
Evercore ISIGreg Melich$1,100$1,010.79 +22.7%Mar 2, 2026
Evercore ISIGreg Melich$1,050$987.09 +17.1%Feb 10, 2026
BernsteinZhihan Ma$1,155$1,001.16 +28.8%Feb 9, 2026
OppenheimerAnalyst unavailable$1,100$997.7 +22.7%Feb 5, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$950$978.35 +6.0%Feb 5, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$1,100$978.35 +22.7%Feb 5, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$1,065$968.36 +18.8%Feb 3, 2026
Deutsche BankKrisztina Katai$1,044$927.4 +16.5%Jan 8, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$1,000$854.5 +11.5%Jan 5, 2026
Northcoast ResearchAnalyst unavailable$1,100$854.79 +22.7%Dec 24, 2025
Wells FargoEdward Kelly$900$857.59 +0.4%Dec 19, 2025
Roth CapitalAnalyst unavailable$769$884.49 -14.2%Dec 15, 2025
Truist FinancialScot Ciccarelli$926$867.89 +3.3%Dec 12, 2025
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$1,000$884.46 +11.5%Dec 12, 2025
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$1,171$884.46 +30.6%Dec 12, 2025
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$1,146$884.46 +27.8%Dec 12, 2025
BTIGAnalyst unavailable$1,115$946.51 +24.4%Oct 14, 2025
Mizuho SecuritiesDavid Bellinger$950$914.8 +6.0%Oct 9, 2025
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$1,033$926.04 +15.2%Sep 26, 2025
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$1,025$943.31 +14.3%Sep 26, 2025
D.A. DavidsonAnalyst unavailable$1,000$943.31 +11.5%Sep 26, 2025
Roth CapitalWilliam Kirk$907$943.31 +1.2%Sep 26, 2025
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$1,130$918.65 +26.0%Sep 26, 2025
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$1,140$917.11 +27.2%Sep 26, 2025
Telsey AdvisoryJoseph Feldman$1,100$1,003.82 +22.7%May 29, 2025
Loop Capital MarketsAnalyst unavailable$1,135$964.31 +26.6%Mar 7, 2025
Stifel NicolausMark Astrachan$1,000$986.06 +11.5%Dec 5, 2024
Tigress FinancialJoseph Feldman$1,065$888.17 +18.8%Oct 17, 2024
Bank of America SecuritiesRobert Ohmes$972$885.62 +8.4%Sep 27, 2024
BMO CapitalKelly Bania$980$879.9 +9.3%Sep 27, 2024
Telsey AdvisoryJoseph Feldman$1,000$901.44 +11.5%Sep 27, 2024
Stifel NicolausMark Astrachan$925$901.44 +3.2%Sep 27, 2024
Loop Capital MarketsLaura Champine$1,005$901.44 +12.1%Sep 27, 2024
D.A. DavidsonMichael Baker$880$885.62 -1.8%Sep 27, 2024
Goldman SachsKate McShane$995$885.62 +11.0%Sep 27, 2024
BarclaysSeth Sigman$850$901.44 -5.2%Sep 27, 2024
CitigroupPaul Lejuez$800$885.62 -10.8%Sep 27, 2024
Morgan StanleySimeon Gutman$950$876.68 +6.0%Sep 9, 2024
Loop Capital MarketsLaura Champine$975$885.98 +8.8%Sep 6, 2024
OppenheimerRupesh Parikh$955$885.98 +6.5%Sep 6, 2024
Robert W. BairdPeter Benedict$975$885.98 +8.8%Sep 6, 2024
Stifel NicolausMark Astrachan$915$885.98 +2.1%Sep 6, 2024
OppenheimerRupesh Parikh$925$908.47 +3.2%Aug 27, 2024
Stifel NicolausMark Astrachan$950$846.59 +6.0%Jul 11, 2024
Morgan StanleySimeon Gutman$855$884.31 -4.6%Jul 11, 2024
Tigress FinancialIvan Feinseth$975$852.47 +8.8%Jun 25, 2024
Loop Capital MarketsLaura Champine$940$845.96 +4.9%Jun 14, 2024
Deutsche BankKrisztina Katai$925$847.16 +3.2%Jun 6, 2024
OppenheimerRupesh Parikh$905$834.3 +1.0%Jun 6, 2024
Telsey AdvisoryJoseph Feldman$580$834.3 -35.3%Jun 6, 2024
Loop Capital MarketsLaura Champine$890$809.89 -0.7%Jun 3, 2024
Telsey AdvisoryJoseph Feldman$850$809.89 -5.2%Jun 3, 2024
CFRAArun Sundaram$846$809.89 -5.6%May 31, 2024
OppenheimerRupesh Parikh$850$809.89 -5.2%May 31, 2024
Roth CapitalWilliam Kirk$676$815.34 -24.6%May 31, 2024
BMO CapitalKelly Bania$875$815.34 -2.4%May 31, 2024
Truist FinancialScot Ciccarelli$873$815.34 -2.6%May 31, 2024
D.A. DavidsonMichael Baker$780$815.34 -13.0%May 31, 2024
Argus ResearchChristopher Graja$900$809.73 +0.4%May 28, 2024
Loop Capital MarketsLaura Champine$840$763.41 -6.3%May 9, 2024
Roth CapitalWilliam Kirk$650$722.58 -27.5%Apr 11, 2024
JefferiesCorey Tarlowe$860$722.58 -4.1%Apr 11, 2024
Loop Capital MarketsLaura Champine$820$722.58 -8.5%Apr 11, 2024
Gordon Haskett Capital CorporationChuck Grom$775$711.3 -13.6%Apr 3, 2024
Telsey AdvisoryJoseph Feldman$800$725.56 -10.8%Mar 8, 2024
OppenheimerRupesh Parikh$805$769.96 -10.2%Mar 6, 2024
Raymond JamesBobby Griffin$670$659.41 -25.3%Dec 15, 2023
Stifel NicolausMark Astrachan$615$632.52 -31.4%Dec 14, 2023
J.P. MorganChristopher Horvers$605$589.08 -32.5%Nov 24, 2023
Telsey AdvisoryJoseph Feldman$575$563 -35.9%Sep 27, 2023
UBSMichael Lasser$640$556.18 -28.6%Sep 26, 2023
Truist FinancialScot Ciccarelli$568$481.35 -36.6%May 25, 2023
OppenheimerRupesh Parikh$550$470.05 -38.6%Mar 3, 2023
Robert W. BairdPeter Benedict$535$485.69 -40.3%Mar 2, 2023
Telsey AdvisoryJoseph Feldman$595$484.6 -33.6%Dec 9, 2022
JefferiesCorey Tarlowe$610$466.4 -32.0%Sep 23, 2022
Robert W. BairdPeter Benedict$575$522.1 -35.9%Aug 31, 2022
Deutsche BankKrisztina Katai$579$494.98 -35.4%Jul 14, 2022
Atlantic EquitiesDaniela Nedialkova$615$477.26 -31.4%Jun 9, 2022
Robert W. BairdPeter Benedict$560$465.91 -37.5%May 27, 2022
Evercore ISIGreg Melich$540$470.76 -39.8%May 27, 2022
Stifel NicolausMark Astrachan$565$507.86 -37.0%May 6, 2022
Evercore ISIGreg Melich$600$544.43 -33.1%May 5, 2022
Evercore ISIGreg Melich$610$584.67 -32.0%Apr 11, 2022
Deutsche BankKrisztina Katai$527$584.79 -41.2%Apr 6, 2022
JefferiesStephanie Wissink$670$584.79 -25.3%Apr 6, 2022
OppenheimerRupesh Parikh$620$575.57 -30.8%Apr 3, 2022
Truist FinancialScot Ciccarelli$603$561.35 -32.7%Mar 19, 2022
OppenheimerRupesh Parikh$580$543.39 -35.3%Mar 16, 2022
Deutsche BankPaul Trussell$491$525.95 -45.2%Mar 14, 2022
BMO CapitalKelly Bania$580$525.5 -35.3%Mar 4, 2022
Credit SuisseRobert Moskow$570$525.5 -36.4%Mar 4, 2022
Telsey AdvisoryJoe Feldman$615$525.5 -31.4%Mar 4, 2022
Cowen & Co.Oliver Chen$650$528.83 -27.5%Feb 9, 2022
Morgan StanleySimeon Gutman$560$515.89 -37.5%Feb 7, 2022
Wells FargoEdward Kelly$600$515.89 -33.1%Feb 7, 2022
Robert W. BairdPeter Benedict$600$519.77 -33.1%Feb 6, 2022
CitigroupPaul Lejuez$530$491.68 -40.9%Jan 28, 2022
Truist FinancialScot Ciccarelli$606$502.99 -32.4%Jan 17, 2022
Argus ResearchChris Graja$610$544.51 -32.0%Dec 14, 2021
R5 CapitalScott Mushkin$561$556.38 -37.4%Dec 13, 2021
MKM PartnersWilliam Kirk$509$556.38 -43.2%Dec 13, 2021
Bank of America SecuritiesRobert Ohmes$595$556.38 -33.6%Dec 13, 2021
Stifel NicolausMark Astrachan$555$557.97 -38.1%Dec 10, 2021
UBSMichael Lasser$600$557.97 -33.1%Dec 10, 2021
Gordon Haskett Capital CorporationCharles Grom$575$511.4 -35.9%Nov 11, 2021
D.A. DavidsonMichael Baker$423$451.45 -52.8%Oct 7, 2021
Tigress FinancialIvan Feinseth$520$450.38 -42.0%Sep 29, 2021
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Costco Wholesale Corporation, alongside its group entities, operates membership-based retail warehouses across a broad international scope, spanning the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Spain, France, Iceland, China, and Taiwan. These outlets provide customers with an extensive array of both well-known branded and proprietary private-label products. Their vast inventory includes household staples, shelf-stable groceries, confectionery, chilled and frozen items, alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and deli selections. Furthermore, the stores stock major appliances, consumer electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, garden and patio furniture, sporting goods, vehicle tires, toys, seasonal merchandise, office supplies, automotive maintenance products, postage services, event tickets, apparel, small kitchen appliances, home furnishings, domestic textiles, kitchenware, custom-order kiosks, and fine jewelry.…

Historical context

All COST earnings

Consumer Defensive peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector

Latest beats and misses

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One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.

Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-25T06:30:59.253510+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-25T06:30:59.250053+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-25. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.