Costco Wholesale Corporation · COST · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q1 2025

Costco: Growth Continues, but Costs and Tariffs Temper the Outlook

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but qualified view of Costco's operating trajectory: demand, membership economics, warehouse expansion, e-commerce and private-label initiatives remain supportive, while costs and external headwinds constrain the margin outlook.

Reported After market closeNASDAQConsumer Defensive $419.94B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $4.07
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $63.02B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -6.1% Event window
SPY move +0.6% Same window
Abnormal move -6.6% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.8× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -5.0% Up to 20 sessions
COSTSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, management's expansion plan increased to 28 FY2025 warehouse openings from 26, and e-commerce momentum was described as stronger. The current analysis also places greater emphasis on wage-related costs, tariff uncertainty, FX and gasoline-volume risks while maintaining a confident tone.

Guidance delta

Maintained. Management remained confident while acknowledging FX, tariff, labor-cost and gasoline-related headwinds.

Key takeaways

  • Management described strong top-line and earnings growth, supported by membership-fee increases and comparable sales.
  • E-commerce growth accelerated versus the prior-quarter analysis, while digital personalization and retail media remained investment areas.
  • Management planned 28 FY2025 warehouse openings and continued expanding gasoline-station hours.
  • Kirkland Signature innovation and value pricing remained central to the growth strategy.
  • FX, tariffs, labor costs and gasoline volumes were the main offsets to the positive operating narrative.

Management priorities

  • Warehouse expansion and traffic growth.
  • Kirkland Signature product development and value pricing.
  • E-commerce, digital personalization and retail media.
  • Gasoline-station hour expansion.
  • Margin discipline and supply-chain inventory management.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
COST EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 8 reported fiscal quarters and 2 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $3.62 Q2 '24 actual $3.92, beat Q3 '24 estimate $3.70 Q3 '24 actual $3.78, beat Q4 '24 estimate $5.08 Q4 '24 actual $5.15, beat Q4 '25 estimate $5.80 Q4 '25 actual $5.87, beat Q1 '26 estimate $4.27 Q1 '26 actual $4.34, beat Q2 '26 estimate $4.55 Q2 '26 actual $4.58, beat Q3 '26 estimate $5.00 Q3 '26 actual $4.93, miss Q4 '26 estimate $6.54 Q4 '26 actual $6.75, beat Q1 '27 estimate $4.93 Q2 '27 estimate $5.13

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy59 ratings
Bullish3966.1%
Neutral1932.2%
Bearish11.7%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$946.92Current
$491Low
$927.5Average
$1,275High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 11, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
RBC Capital Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainOct 9, 2026
Deutsche Bank Buy BuyMaintainSep 28, 2026
Argus Research Buy BuyMaintainSep 28, 2026
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainSep 25, 2026
Truist Securities Hold HoldMaintainSep 25, 2026
Show 54 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $946.92. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Deutsche BankKrisztina Katai$1,079$929.26 +13.9%Sep 28, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$955$919.13 +0.9%Sep 25, 2026
D.A. DavidsonAnalyst unavailable$1,040$919.5 +9.8%Sep 25, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$1,175$896.48 +24.1%Sep 25, 2026
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$1,143$896.48 +20.7%Sep 25, 2026
See 125 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Costco Wholesale Corporation, alongside its group entities, operates membership-based retail warehouses across a broad international scope, spanning the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Spain, France, Iceland, China, and Taiwan. These outlets provide customers with an extensive array of both well-known branded and proprietary private-label products. Their vast inventory includes household staples, shelf-stable groceries, confectionery, chilled and frozen items, alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and deli selections. Furthermore, the stores stock major appliances, consumer electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, garden and patio furniture, sporting goods, vehicle tires, toys, seasonal merchandise, office supplies, automotive maintenance products, postage services, event tickets, apparel, small kitchen appliances, home furnishings, domestic textiles, kitchenware, custom-order kiosks, and fine jewelry.…

Historical context

All COST earnings

Consumer Defensive peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-02-20T00:00:54.474485+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-10T23:00:40.846097+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-10T23:00:40.843402+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-10. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.