Coinbase Global, Inc. · COIN · FY2024 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2024

Coinbase grows subscription revenue as lower volatility weighs on transactions

The supplied analysis supports a mixed outlook: Coinbase is broadening revenue through subscriptions, stablecoins, Base, and international products, but the durability of growth remains sensitive to crypto volatility, regulation, asset prices, and spending.

Reported After market closeNASDAQFinancial Services $47.59B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.62 Consensus $0.45
EPS surprise +38.6% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $1.13B Consensus $1.26B
Revenue surprise -10.5% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -15.3% Event window
SPY move -2.0% Same window
Abnormal move -13.4% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.9× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +65.2% Up to 20 sessions
COINSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, the analysis emphasized a further decline in transaction revenue and fee take rate alongside continued expansion of subscription and services, Base, stablecoin activity, international markets, and derivatives.

Guidance delta

Maintained; management expected subscription and services revenue to exceed $2 billion in 2024.

Key takeaways

  • Subscription and services revenue remained the main diversification driver, with management expecting it to exceed $2 billion in 2024.
  • Lower crypto volatility pressured transaction revenue, while stablecoin and Base activity expanded.
  • Management highlighted Base, Smart Wallets, USDC, cbBTC, derivatives, and international expansion as product priorities.
  • The quarter included a $1 billion stock-buyback authorization and continued regulatory-policy investment.

Management priorities

  • Scale Base, Smart Wallets, and cbBTC to increase utility.
  • Develop the Coinbase Developer Platform and expand derivatives.
  • Pursue international expansion, additional licenses, and regulatory clarity.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
COIN REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $1B Q1 '24 actual $2B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $1B Q2 '24 actual $1B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1B Q3 '24 actual $1B, miss Q2 '25 estimate $2B Q2 '25 actual $1B, miss Q3 '25 estimate $2B Q3 '25 actual $2B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $2B Q4 '25 actual $2B, miss Q1 '26 estimate $1B Q1 '26 actual $1B, miss Q2 '26 estimate $1B Q2 '26 actual $1B, miss Q3 '26 estimate $1B Q4 '26 estimate $2B Q1 '27 estimate $2B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold39 ratings
Bullish2153.8%
Neutral1538.5%
Bearish37.7%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$180.39Previous close
$35Low
$239.74Average
$875High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 13, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainOct 9, 2026
Citizens Market Outperform Market OutperformMaintainOct 9, 2026
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainOct 7, 2026
Barclays Underweight UnderweightMaintainOct 7, 2026
Piper Sandler Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 2, 2026
Show 34 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $180.39. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Compass PointEd Engel$187$172 +3.7%Oct 9, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$258$172 +43.0%Oct 9, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$244$185.74 +35.3%Oct 7, 2026
BarclaysBenjamin Budish$149$185.74 -17.4%Oct 7, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$200$189.29 +10.9%Oct 1, 2026
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Coinbase Global, Inc. delivers fundamental financial infrastructure and technological solutions to the expanding cryptoeconomy, operating across both the United States and international markets. The company provides a core financial gateway for individual consumers navigating the digital asset space. For institutional clients, it manages a dynamic trading venue that ensures abundant liquidity for cryptocurrency transactions. Moreover, Coinbase supplies developers with crucial technology and services, enabling them to build innovative crypto-based applications and seamlessly integrate secure digital asset payments. Founded in 2012, the firm is headquartered in Wilmington, Delaware.

Historical context

All COIN earnings

Financial Services peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-11-10T18:38:36.707185+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-13T06:50:43.480372+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-13T06:50:43.477650+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-13. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.