Capital One Financial Corporation · COF-PN · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Capital One Emphasizes Brex, Discover Integration and Credit Risks

The supplied analysis supports a mixed but constructive view: strategic acquisitions, Discover integration, and technology investment may strengthen longer-term growth, while credit costs, regulatory risk, and integration execution could limit near-term earnings quality.

Reported Session unavailableNYSEFinancial Services $115.63B market cap
75quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $3.86 Consensus $4.14
EPS surprise -6.8% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $15.58B Consensus $15.47B
Revenue surprise +0.7% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

unavailable
Stock move — Event window
SPY move — Same window
Abnormal move — Stock minus SPY
Volume — Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift — Up to 20 sessions
Price and volume data were unavailable at publication time.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The call added a planned Brex acquisition to Capital One's growth agenda while emphasizing continued Discover integration, higher technology investment, and ongoing attention to credit-loss and regulatory risks.

Guidance delta

Maintained, according to the supplied transcript analysis.

Key takeaways

  • Management highlighted the strategic role of the Brex acquisition in corporate cards, spend management, and small-business banking.
  • Discover integration remains focused on network migration, acceptance, and potential synergies.
  • Credit-loss provisions, regulatory proposals, and integration execution remain important risks to the outlook.

Management priorities

  • Integrate Discover and transition card activity to its network.
  • Integrate Brex and expand business-payments capabilities.
  • Invest in AI, data infrastructure, and global network acceptance.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
COF-PN EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 actual $1.84, None Q1 '24 actual $3.34, None Q2 '24 actual $1.56, None Q3 '24 actual $4.56, None Q2 '25 estimate $4.05 Q2 '25 actual $-8.46, miss Q3 '25 estimate $4.49 Q3 '25 actual $4.99, beat Q4 '25 estimate $4.14 Q4 '25 actual $3.86, miss Q1 '26 estimate $4.50 Q1 '26 actual $4.42, miss Q2 '26 estimate $4.79 Q2 '26 actual $5.81, beat Q3 '26 estimate $5.50 Q3 '26 actual $6.69, beat Q4 '26 estimate $4.78 Q1 '27 estimate $5.73 Q2 '27 estimate $5.81 Q3 '27 estimate $6.55
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold35 ratings
Bullish1542.9%
Neutral1542.8%
Bearish514.3%

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 16, 2023
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainOct 5, 2023
Morgan Stanley Underweight UnderweightMaintainOct 2, 2023
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 20, 2023
Stephens & Co. Underweight UnderweightMaintainJul 20, 2023
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Capital One Financial Corporation functions as a holding company for its banking subsidiaries, Capital One Bank (USA), National Association, and Capital One, National Association. These entities deliver a wide array of financial products and services to customers across the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The organization structures its operations into three primary divisions: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. It collects deposits through various account types, including checking, money market, negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW), savings, and time deposits.…

Historical context

All COF-PN earnings
—FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026—FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026—FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Financial Services peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
EWBC East West Bancorp, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +1.5% +2.2% EWBC: Record Q3 Results, Higher NII Guidance
COF Capital One Financial Corporation FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +21.6% +0.9% Capital One posts Q3 beat as synergies and credit trends strengthen
KEY-PK KeyCorp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +10.5% — KeyCorp posts strong Q3 as deposits and loan demand support growth
KEY-PL KeyCorp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +10.5% — KeyCorp posts strong Q3 as deposits and commercial demand rise
KEY-PJ KeyCorp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +10.5% — KeyCorp reports record revenue as deposits and commercial lending strengthen
KEY-PI KeyCorp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +10.5% — KeyCorp posts record Q3 as deposits and commercial lending accelerate

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-21. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.