Capital One Financial Corporation · COF-PL · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Capital One keeps guidance steady as integrations and credit remain key

Capital One's Q1 2026 update supports a constructive but execution-dependent view: resilient credit, Discover purchase-volume expansion and Brex provide growth avenues, while integration costs, elevated liquidity and regulatory uncertainty remain constraints.

Reported Session unavailableNYSEFinancial Services $121.11B market cap
85quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $4.42 Consensus $4.50
EPS surprise -1.8% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $15.23B Consensus $15.35B
Revenue surprise -0.7% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

unavailable
Stock move — Event window
SPY move — Same window
Abnormal move — Stock minus SPY
Volume — Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift — Up to 20 sessions
Price and volume data were unavailable at publication time.

Ask FN2 about COF-PL FY2026 Q1

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How did the market react to COF-PL FY2026 Q1 earnings, and why?What changed in COF-PL's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for COF-PL after FY2026 Q1 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Brex acquisition closed, Capital One brought Hopper-built travel technology in-house, and management highlighted continued Discover momentum. Earnings-power guidance was maintained; a short-term brown-out in card originations and higher investment expenses remain part of the outlook.

Guidance delta

Management maintained earnings-power guidance; no quantitative change was supplied.

Key takeaways

  • Credit performance remained strong despite macro and geopolitical headwinds.
  • Discover integration is adding purchase volume, while a short-term brown-out in card originations is expected.
  • Brex closed and Capital One is investing in AI, data infrastructure and travel technology.
  • Liquidity remained elevated and CET1 was 14.4%, supporting a conservative capital policy.

Management priorities

  • Transition Discover card originations to Capital One technology by Q3 2026.
  • Complete Discover back-book conversion by Q1 2027.
  • Integrate Brex and scale travel, AI and data infrastructure.
  • Capture the full $2.5 billion of Discover-related synergies by mid-2027.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
COF-PL REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 actual $13B, None Q1 '24 actual $13B, None Q2 '24 actual $13B, None Q3 '24 actual $14B, None Q2 '25 estimate $16B Q2 '25 actual $16B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $15B Q3 '25 actual $20B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $15B Q4 '25 actual $16B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $15B Q1 '26 actual $15B, miss Q2 '26 estimate $16B Q2 '26 actual $16B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $16B Q3 '26 actual $16B, beat Q4 '26 estimate $17B Q1 '27 estimate $16B Q2 '27 estimate $17B Q3 '27 estimate $17B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold35 ratings
Bullish1542.9%
Neutral1542.8%
Bearish514.3%

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 16, 2023
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainOct 5, 2023
Morgan Stanley Underweight UnderweightMaintainOct 2, 2023
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 20, 2023
Stephens & Co. Underweight UnderweightMaintainJul 20, 2023
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Capital One Financial Corporation serves as the parent organization for its banking subsidiaries, Capital One Bank (USA), National Association, and Capital One, National Association. These entities deliver a diverse range of financial products and services to customers across the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The corporation structures its business into three main divisions: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. Its offerings include various deposit accounts like checking, money market, negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW), savings, and time deposits.…

Historical context

All COF-PL earnings
—FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026—FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026

Financial Services peers this season

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KEY-PK KeyCorp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +10.5% — KeyCorp posts strong Q3 as deposits and loan demand support growth
KEY-PL KeyCorp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +10.5% — KeyCorp posts strong Q3 as deposits and commercial demand rise
KEY-PJ KeyCorp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +10.5% — KeyCorp reports record revenue as deposits and commercial lending strengthen
KEY-PI KeyCorp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +10.5% — KeyCorp posts record Q3 as deposits and commercial lending accelerate
KEY KeyCorp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +10.5% +4.5% KeyCorp Q3 revenue tops $2 billion as deposits and utilization strengthen
ALLY Ally Financial Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +1.5% +1.0% Ally reports strong Q3 growth while monitoring credit quality

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-21. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.