Capital One Financial Corporation · COF-PI · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Capital One leans on Discover integration and Brex expansion

Capital One's near-term growth case rests on executing the Discover integration, adding Brex's business-payments platform and sustaining credit performance; the evidence is constructive but execution, regulation and expense risks remain material.

Reported Session unavailableNYSEFinancial Services $121.11B market cap
75quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $3.86 Consensus $4.14
EPS surprise -6.8% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $15.58B Consensus $15.47B
Revenue surprise +0.7% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

unavailable
Stock move — Event window
SPY move — Same window
Abnormal move — Stock minus SPY
Volume — Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift — Up to 20 sessions
Price and volume data were unavailable at publication time.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The supplied analysis highlights the announced Brex acquisition, completion of the Discover home-loan portfolio sale and increased focus on AI, technology and global network acceptance.

Guidance delta

Maintained; the supplied analysis indicates no change to guidance.

Key takeaways

  • Management described Discover integration synergies and the Brex acquisition as key expansion opportunities.
  • Credit performance was characterized as stable while investment in AI, technology and network acceptance continues.
  • The main watchpoints are integration execution, regulatory risk and pressure from higher expenses.

Management priorities

  • Integrate Brex and expand business-payments and small-business capabilities.
  • Migrate cards to the Discover network and broaden global acceptance.
  • Continue investment in AI, Capital One Shopping, Auto Navigator and travel services.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
COF-PI EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 actual $1.56, None Q3 '24 actual $4.63, None Q2 '25 estimate $4.05 Q2 '25 actual $-8.46, miss Q3 '25 estimate $4.49 Q3 '25 actual $4.99, beat Q4 '25 estimate $4.14 Q4 '25 actual $3.86, miss Q1 '26 estimate $4.50 Q1 '26 actual $4.42, miss Q2 '26 estimate $4.79 Q2 '26 actual $5.81, beat Q3 '26 estimate $5.50 Q3 '26 actual $6.69, beat Q4 '26 estimate $4.78 Q1 '27 estimate $5.73 Q2 '27 estimate $5.81 Q3 '27 estimate $6.55
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold35 ratings
Bullish1542.9%
Neutral1542.8%
Bearish514.3%

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 16, 2023
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainOct 5, 2023
Morgan Stanley Underweight UnderweightMaintainOct 2, 2023
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 20, 2023
Stephens & Co. Underweight UnderweightMaintainJul 20, 2023
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Capital One Financial Corporation functions as the parent company for Capital One Bank (USA), National Association, and Capital One, National Association, delivering a comprehensive array of financial products and services across the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The company's business activities are structured into three main divisions: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. It provides various deposit accounts, including checking, money market, negotiable order of withdrawal, savings, and time deposits.…

Historical context

All COF-PI earnings
—FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026—FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026—FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Financial Services peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
COF-PL Capital One Financial Corporation FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +21.6% — Capital One Q3: Discover Synergies Lead as Marketing Rises
COF-PN Capital One Financial Corporation FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +21.6% — Capital One pairs Q3 earnings growth with integration progress
EWBC East West Bancorp, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +1.5% +2.2% EWBC: Record Q3 Results, Higher NII Guidance
COF Capital One Financial Corporation FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +21.6% +0.9% Capital One posts Q3 beat as synergies and credit trends strengthen
KEY-PK KeyCorp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +10.5% — KeyCorp posts strong Q3 as deposits and loan demand support growth
KEY-PL KeyCorp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +10.5% — KeyCorp posts strong Q3 as deposits and commercial demand rise

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-21. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.