Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold50 ratings
Bullish1734.0%
Neutral3060.0%
Bearish36.0%
Canadian National Railway Company · CNI · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
CN reports solid Q1 growth but flags safety and fuel risks
CN's quarter provides evidence of resilient demand and operational improvement, but the case for sustained earnings growth depends on safety execution, fuel and trade conditions, commodity volumes, and capacity-project delivery.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$74.85B market cap
90quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.31
Consensus $1.31
EPS surprise
0.0%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$3.15B
Consensus $3.15B
Revenue surprise
+0.0%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-5.9%
Event window
SPY move
-0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-5.9%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.3×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+9.9%
Up to 20 sessions
CNISPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about CNI FY2026 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did CNI fall 5.9% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in CNI's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for CNI after FY2026 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The quarter added evidence of stronger operating metrics and demand in grain, potash, NGL, and intermodal, alongside a material free-cash-flow improvement. The main negative change was weaker-than-targeted safety performance and higher incident costs; management otherwise left guidance unchanged.
Guidance delta
Management maintained guidance and said earnings growth should outpace volume growth.
Key takeaways
- Grain, potash, NGL, and intermodal volumes drove growth, including a record first-quarter grain shipment.
- Free cash flow was supported by lower capital spending and asset sales, while the company continued its share-repurchase program.
- Car velocity, train speed, and locomotive availability improved, while dwell time declined year over year.
- Safety performance missed expectations, prompting targeted corrective actions and higher incident costs.
- Management kept guidance unchanged and pointed to agricultural and energy demand plus capacity projects as growth supports.
Management priorities
- Complete the Zanardi Bridge and Glen Valley Abrahamson projects by 2027.
- Continue the Fast-Track terminal upgrade program.
- Invest in technology to improve productivity.
- Maintain the cash-return program through repurchases and leverage management.
- Strengthen safety programs and reduce incident costs.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$123.69Current
$100Low
$123.75Average
$143.23High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 2, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 31, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| CIBC | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 14, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 9, 2025 |
| Loop Capital | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Feb 3, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Oct 9, 2024 |
| National Bank Financial Inc | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Apr 4, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 27, 2023 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 11, 2023 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Sep 27, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 27, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | May 4, 2023 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 16, 2021 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Oct 20, 2021 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Sep 20, 2021 |
| CFRA | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 28, 2020 |
| Benchmark | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jan 29, 2020 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 11, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 16, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 30, 2019 |
| Desjardins | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 12, 2019 |
| Maxim Group | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jan 8, 2019 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | May 17, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Hilliard Lyons | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 21, 2017 |
| Craig-Hallum | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 3, 2017 |
| Sidoti & Co. | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 2, 2017 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jan 4, 2017 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 28, 2016 |
| Atlantic Equities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 11, 2016 |
| CLSA | Sell | Sell | Maintain | May 19, 2016 |
| TD Securities | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 26, 2016 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 26, 2016 |
| First Analysis | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jan 27, 2016 |
| National Bank FInancial | Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Sep 11, 2015 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Feb 28, 2014 |
| Boenning & Scattergood | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Feb 27, 2014 |
| Avondale Partners | Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jun 20, 2013 |
| FirstEnergy Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Mar 4, 2013 |
| Ladenburg Thalmann | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 2, 2012 |
| Sterne Agee | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 23, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $123.69. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna | Harrison Bauer | $130 | $118.66 | +5.1% | Oct 2, 2026 |
| National Bank | Ken Hoexter | $143 | $119.52 | +15.6% | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $130 | $129.48 | +5.1% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $109 | $115.91 | -11.9% | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $124 | $115.91 | +0.3% | Jun 25, 2026 |
| National Bank | Jonathan Chappell | $124 | $115.91 | +0.3% | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $138 | $120.38 | +11.6% | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $99 | $108.08 | -20.0% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $101.43 | -20.8% | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $96.22 | -19.2% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $101 | $97.65 | -18.3% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $103 | $95.52 | -16.7% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $97 | $94.46 | -21.6% | Oct 2, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $115 | $93.02 | -7.0% | Sep 25, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $113 | $99.76 | -8.6% | Mar 27, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Benjamin Nolan | $120 | $100.69 | -3.0% | Jan 16, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Moore | $120 | $99.95 | -3.0% | Jan 10, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Benjamin Nolan | $130 | $115.89 | +5.1% | Oct 11, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Ariel Rosa | $125 | $113.44 | +1.1% | Oct 8, 2024 |
| National Bank | Ken Hoexter | $122 | $113.54 | -1.4% | Oct 4, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $119 | $117.91 | -3.8% | Sep 25, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Ken Hoexter | $129 | $115.78 | +4.3% | Sep 11, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Christian Wetherbee | $125 | $119.98 | +1.1% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| National Bank | Brandon Oglenski | $120 | $119.98 | -3.0% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Benjamin Nolan | $137 | $122.39 | +10.8% | Jul 17, 2024 |
| National Bank | David Vernon | $130.67 | $117.92 | +5.6% | Jul 8, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Christian Wetherbee | $130 | $126.64 | +5.1% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Benjamin Nolan | $134 | $129.43 | +8.3% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| National Bank | Stephanie Moore | $130 | $129.74 | +5.1% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $140 | $131.65 | +13.2% | Mar 28, 2024 |
| National Bank | Ken Hoexter | $140 | $132.83 | +13.2% | Mar 21, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Benjamin Nolan | $113 | $121.48 | -8.6% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $127 | $112.43 | +2.7% | Jul 18, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $110.82 | -7.0% | Jul 15, 2022 |
| National Bank | Christian Weatherbee | $132 | $112.7 | +6.7% | May 19, 2022 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $136 | $118.87 | +10.0% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $130 | $118.56 | +5.1% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Steve Hansen | $143.23 | $118.24 | +15.8% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| CIBC | Kevin Chiang | $131.3 | $118.24 | +6.2% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ravi Shanker | $125.73 | $118.24 | +1.6% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $139 | $118.24 | +12.4% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| Stephens | Justin Long | $105.04 | $121.2 | -15.1% | Jan 4, 2022 |
| TD Securities | Cherilyn Radbourne | $139.26 | $129.7 | +12.6% | Oct 20, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jordan Alliger | $120.95 | $115.36 | -2.2% | Sep 23, 2021 |
| Cowen & Co. | Jason Seidl | $119 | $113.01 | -3.8% | Sep 20, 2021 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Rick Paterson | $124.93 | $120.44 | +1.0% | Sep 1, 2021 |
| Citigroup | Christian Wetherbee | $111.4 | $120.44 | -9.9% | Sep 1, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Benjamin Nolan | $118 | $103.77 | -4.6% | Jun 21, 2021 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $128.91 | $110.7 | +4.2% | May 28, 2021 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $125 | $115.02 | +1.1% | Apr 14, 2021 |
Track every rating change on CNI the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationCanadian National Railway Company (CNI), together with its subsidiary operations, functions as a key player in the railway and related logistics industry. The firm handles a wide array of freight, including petroleum products and chemicals, agricultural commodities such as grain and fertilizers, various minerals like coal and metals, timber and paper goods, intermodal containers, and finished automobiles. Its services cater to a broad base of clients, from international exporters and importers to retail chains, agricultural growers, and industrial manufacturers. CNI boasts a substantial rail infrastructure, with approximately 19,500 miles of track extending across both Canada and the United States. Additionally, the company provides diverse ancillary services, encompassing marine terminal management (vessels and docks), cargo transshipment and distribution, specialized automotive supply chain solutions, and comprehensive freight management and forwarding. Founded in 1919, Canadian National Railway Company is based in Montreal, Canada.
Historical context
All CNI earningsIndustrials peers this season
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| NVT nVent Electric plc | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +8.6% | -8.8% | nVent raises outlook as data-center demand and Maverick broaden growth |
| MTZ MasTec, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +0.3% | +0.8% | MasTec posts record Q3 as power and data-center demand accelerates |
| IR Ingersoll Rand Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +18.5% | +0.2% | Ingersoll Rand raises FY2026 outlook as orders accelerate |
| VLTO Veralto Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +8.3% | +9.8% | Veralto raises 2026 EPS outlook as water demand accelerates |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CHDFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+2.2% EPS+1.2% move
- AZNFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+7.3% EPS+7.0% move
- FRTFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+3.9% EPS-1.1% move
- CVXFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+8.4% EPS+1.8% move
- BTSGFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+14.2% EPS+11.1% move
- EXCFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+10.4% EPS+0.5% move
Missed on EPS
- GLPIFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-11.5% EPS-1.3% move
- LYBFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-1.2% EPS+5.0% move
- CCJFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-101.4% EPS-7.9% move
- VALEFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-24.6% EPS+1.9% move
- DLR-PLFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
- DLR-PKFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
Get the CNI recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-01T17:30:45.532298+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-01T17:30:45.529518+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.