Canadian National Railway Company · CNI · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

CN reports solid Q1 growth but flags safety and fuel risks

CN's quarter provides evidence of resilient demand and operational improvement, but the case for sustained earnings growth depends on safety execution, fuel and trade conditions, commodity volumes, and capacity-project delivery.

Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials $74.85B market cap
90quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.31 Consensus $1.31
EPS surprise 0.0% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $3.15B Consensus $3.15B
Revenue surprise +0.0% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -5.9% Event window
SPY move -0.0% Same window
Abnormal move -5.9% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.3× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +9.9% Up to 20 sessions
CNISPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The quarter added evidence of stronger operating metrics and demand in grain, potash, NGL, and intermodal, alongside a material free-cash-flow improvement. The main negative change was weaker-than-targeted safety performance and higher incident costs; management otherwise left guidance unchanged.

Guidance delta

Management maintained guidance and said earnings growth should outpace volume growth.

Key takeaways

  • Grain, potash, NGL, and intermodal volumes drove growth, including a record first-quarter grain shipment.
  • Free cash flow was supported by lower capital spending and asset sales, while the company continued its share-repurchase program.
  • Car velocity, train speed, and locomotive availability improved, while dwell time declined year over year.
  • Safety performance missed expectations, prompting targeted corrective actions and higher incident costs.
  • Management kept guidance unchanged and pointed to agricultural and energy demand plus capacity projects as growth supports.

Management priorities

  • Complete the Zanardi Bridge and Glen Valley Abrahamson projects by 2027.
  • Continue the Fast-Track terminal upgrade program.
  • Invest in technology to improve productivity.
  • Maintain the cash-return program through repurchases and leverage management.
  • Strengthen safety programs and reduce incident costs.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
CNI EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $1.40 Q2 '24 actual $1.33, miss Q3 '24 estimate $1.28 Q3 '24 actual $1.26, miss Q2 '25 estimate $1.37 Q2 '25 actual $1.35, miss Q3 '25 estimate $1.28 Q3 '25 actual $1.33, beat Q4 '25 estimate $1.43 Q4 '25 actual $1.49, beat Q1 '26 estimate $1.31 Q1 '26 actual $1.31, match Q2 '26 estimate $1.39 Q2 '26 actual $1.50, beat Q3 '26 estimate $1.49 Q3 '26 actual $1.54, beat Q4 '26 estimate $2.23 Q1 '27 estimate $2.03 Q2 '27 estimate $2.33 Q3 '27 estimate $2.36
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold50 ratings
Bullish1734.0%
Neutral3060.0%
Bearish36.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$123.69Current
$100Low
$123.75Average
$143.23High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainOct 7, 2026
Susquehanna Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 2, 2026
B of A Securities Buy BuyMaintainSep 23, 2026
Argus Research Hold HoldMaintainAug 31, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 27, 2026
RBC Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 27, 2026
Evercore ISI Group Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 27, 2026
Barclays Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainJul 27, 2026
CIBC Outperform OutperformMaintainJun 25, 2026
Bernstein Market Perform Market PerformMaintainMar 31, 2026
Stephens & Co. Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainFeb 2, 2026
Stifel Buy BuyMaintainApr 14, 2025
Jefferies Buy BuyMaintainApr 9, 2025
Loop Capital Sell HoldDowngradeFeb 3, 2025
Goldman Sachs Sell SellMaintainOct 9, 2024
National Bank Financial Inc Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainApr 4, 2024
Deutsche Bank Hold BuyDowngradeNov 27, 2023
JP Morgan Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 11, 2023
Scotiabank Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainSep 27, 2023
Credit Suisse Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 27, 2023
Morgan Stanley Overweight Equal WeightUpgradeMay 4, 2023
Vertical Research Hold BuyDowngradeDec 16, 2021
BMO Capital Market Perform Market PerformMaintainOct 20, 2021
Cowen & Co. Market Perform Market PerformMaintainSep 20, 2021
CFRA Hold HoldMaintainApr 28, 2020
Benchmark Hold HoldMaintainJan 29, 2020
Canaccord Genuity Hold HoldMaintainNov 11, 2019
Bank of America Buy NeutralUpgradeOct 16, 2019
Stifel Nicolaus Hold HoldMaintainApr 30, 2019
Desjardins Hold BuyDowngradeApr 12, 2019
Maxim Group Hold HoldMaintainJan 8, 2019
Macquarie Neutral OutperformDowngradeMay 17, 2018
Argus Buy NeutralUpgradeMay 5, 2018
Hilliard Lyons Neutral BuyDowngradeDec 21, 2017
Craig-Hallum Hold BuyDowngradeOct 3, 2017
Sidoti & Co. Neutral BuyDowngradeAug 2, 2017
Raymond James Outperform Market PerformUpgradeJan 4, 2017
Seaport Global Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 28, 2016
Atlantic Equities Buy BuyMaintainAug 11, 2016
CLSA Sell SellMaintainMay 19, 2016
TD Securities Hold BuyDowngradeApr 26, 2016
Nomura Neutral NeutralMaintainApr 26, 2016
First Analysis Overweight OverweightMaintainJan 27, 2016
National Bank FInancial Outperform Sector PerformUpgradeSep 11, 2015
Wedbush Neutral UnderperformUpgradeFeb 28, 2014
Boenning & Scattergood Outperform NeutralUpgradeFeb 27, 2014
Avondale Partners Perform Market PerformMaintainJun 20, 2013
FirstEnergy Capital Market Perform OutperformDowngradeMar 4, 2013
Ladenburg Thalmann Buy BuyMaintainNov 2, 2012
Sterne Agee Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 23, 2012
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Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $123.69. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
SusquehannaHarrison Bauer$130$118.66 +5.1%Oct 2, 2026
National BankKen Hoexter$143$119.52 +15.6%Sep 23, 2026
BarclaysBrandon Oglenski$130$129.48 +5.1%Jul 27, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$109$115.91 -11.9%Jun 25, 2026
Evercore ISIJonathan Chappell$124$115.91 +0.3%Jun 25, 2026
National BankJonathan Chappell$124$115.91 +0.3%Jun 25, 2026
SusquehannaAnalyst unavailable$138$120.38 +11.6%Jun 5, 2026
BarclaysBrandon Oglenski$99$108.08 -20.0%Apr 30, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$98$101.43 -20.8%Mar 27, 2026
StephensAnalyst unavailable$100$96.22 -19.2%Feb 2, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$101$97.65 -18.3%Jan 15, 2026
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$103$95.52 -16.7%Nov 3, 2025
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$97$94.46 -21.6%Oct 2, 2025
SusquehannaBascome Majors$115$93.02 -7.0%Sep 25, 2025
SusquehannaAnalyst unavailable$113$99.76 -8.6%Mar 27, 2025
Stifel NicolausBenjamin Nolan$120$100.69 -3.0%Jan 16, 2025
JefferiesStephanie Moore$120$99.95 -3.0%Jan 10, 2025
Stifel NicolausBenjamin Nolan$130$115.89 +5.1%Oct 11, 2024
CitigroupAriel Rosa$125$113.44 +1.1%Oct 8, 2024
National BankKen Hoexter$122$113.54 -1.4%Oct 4, 2024
Evercore ISIJonathan Chappell$119$117.91 -3.8%Sep 25, 2024
Bank of America SecuritiesKen Hoexter$129$115.78 +4.3%Sep 11, 2024
Wells FargoChristian Wetherbee$125$119.98 +1.1%Jul 24, 2024
National BankBrandon Oglenski$120$119.98 -3.0%Jul 24, 2024
Stifel NicolausBenjamin Nolan$137$122.39 +10.8%Jul 17, 2024
National BankDavid Vernon$130.67$117.92 +5.6%Jul 8, 2024
Wells FargoChristian Wetherbee$130$126.64 +5.1%Jun 6, 2024
Stifel NicolausBenjamin Nolan$134$129.43 +8.3%Apr 12, 2024
National BankStephanie Moore$130$129.74 +5.1%Apr 8, 2024
SusquehannaBascome Majors$140$131.65 +13.2%Mar 28, 2024
National BankKen Hoexter$140$132.83 +13.2%Mar 21, 2024
Stifel NicolausBenjamin Nolan$113$121.48 -8.6%Jul 27, 2022
SusquehannaBascome Majors$127$112.43 +2.7%Jul 18, 2022
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$115$110.82 -7.0%Jul 15, 2022
National BankChristian Weatherbee$132$112.7 +6.7%May 19, 2022
StephensAnalyst unavailable$136$118.87 +10.0%Apr 27, 2022
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$130$118.56 +5.1%Apr 27, 2022
Raymond JamesSteve Hansen$143.23$118.24 +15.8%Jan 26, 2022
CIBCKevin Chiang$131.3$118.24 +6.2%Jan 26, 2022
Morgan StanleyRavi Shanker$125.73$118.24 +1.6%Jan 26, 2022
Evercore ISIJonathan Chappell$139$118.24 +12.4%Jan 26, 2022
StephensJustin Long$105.04$121.2 -15.1%Jan 4, 2022
TD SecuritiesCherilyn Radbourne$139.26$129.7 +12.6%Oct 20, 2021
Goldman SachsJordan Alliger$120.95$115.36 -2.2%Sep 23, 2021
Cowen & Co.Jason Seidl$119$113.01 -3.8%Sep 20, 2021
Loop Capital MarketsRick Paterson$124.93$120.44 +1.0%Sep 1, 2021
CitigroupChristian Wetherbee$111.4$120.44 -9.9%Sep 1, 2021
Stifel NicolausBenjamin Nolan$118$103.77 -4.6%Jun 21, 2021
UBSThomas Wadewitz$128.91$110.7 +4.2%May 28, 2021
SusquehannaBascome Majors$125$115.02 +1.1%Apr 14, 2021
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Canadian National Railway Company (CNI), together with its subsidiary operations, functions as a key player in the railway and related logistics industry. The firm handles a wide array of freight, including petroleum products and chemicals, agricultural commodities such as grain and fertilizers, various minerals like coal and metals, timber and paper goods, intermodal containers, and finished automobiles. Its services cater to a broad base of clients, from international exporters and importers to retail chains, agricultural growers, and industrial manufacturers. CNI boasts a substantial rail infrastructure, with approximately 19,500 miles of track extending across both Canada and the United States. Additionally, the company provides diverse ancillary services, encompassing marine terminal management (vessels and docks), cargo transshipment and distribution, specialized automotive supply chain solutions, and comprehensive freight management and forwarding. Founded in 1919, Canadian National Railway Company is based in Montreal, Canada.

Historical context

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Industrials peers this season

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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-01T17:30:45.532298+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-01T17:30:45.529518+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.