Centene Corp. · CNC · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026

Centene raises outlook as Medicaid rates and Medicare margins improve

The quarter provided evidence of improving earnings power through Medicaid rate gains, stronger Medicare PDP economics, Marketplace benefits, and operating efficiencies. The durability of that improvement depends on enrollment trends, regulatory execution, risk adjustment, and Medicare Advantage profitability.

Reported Before market openNYSEHealthcare $30.66B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $2.51 Consensus $1.09
EPS surprise +130.3% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $53.58B Consensus $47.64B
Revenue surprise +12.5% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -0.3% Event window
SPY move +0.2% Same window
Abnormal move -0.5% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.8× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +1.7% Up to 20 sessions
CNCSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, management described a higher full-year outlook, stronger expected PDP and Marketplace profitability, and further progress on AI-enabled efficiency and balance-sheet reduction. Medicaid membership was modestly lower, making rate execution and enrollment trends more important to the outlook.

Guidance delta

Management raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance, citing Medicaid rate gains, Medicare PDP margin expansion, and Marketplace risk-adjustment benefits.

Key takeaways

  • Q2 performance supported a higher full-year adjusted EPS outlook.
  • Medicaid membership declined modestly, while rate improvements supported the composite rate outlook and stable HBR.
  • Medicare PDP and Marketplace profitability expectations improved; Medicare Advantage remains focused on dual-eligible members.
  • AI-enabled tools, digitization, and SG&A discipline are part of the enterprise optimization plan.

Management priorities

  • Execute Medicaid rate and community-engagement programs.
  • Simplify the Medicare Advantage footprint around dual-eligible members.
  • Scale AI and data-platform capabilities across operating functions.
  • Continue debt reduction and enterprise cost discipline.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
CNC EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $2.08 Q1 '24 actual $2.26, beat Q2 '24 estimate $2.07 Q2 '24 actual $2.42, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1.33 Q3 '24 actual $1.62, beat Q2 '25 estimate $0.11 Q2 '25 actual $-0.16, miss Q3 '25 estimate $-0.14 Q3 '25 actual $0.50, beat Q4 '25 estimate $-1.22 Q4 '25 actual $-1.19, beat Q1 '26 estimate $2.23 Q1 '26 actual $3.37, beat Q2 '26 estimate $1.09 Q2 '26 actual $2.51, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.10 Q4 '26 estimate $-1.10 Q1 '27 estimate $3.33 Q2 '27 estimate $2.21
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy44 ratings
Bullish2761.4%
Neutral1636.3%
Bearish12.3%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$62.08Current
$33Low
$72.26Average
$109High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 24, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Argus Research Buy HoldUpgradeAug 11, 2026
JP Morgan Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 4, 2026
Bernstein Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 3, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 29, 2026
Baird Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 29, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainJul 14, 2026
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainJul 14, 2026
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainJul 13, 2026
RBC Capital Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainJul 9, 2026
Cantor Fitzgerald Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 7, 2026
Mizuho Neutral NeutralMaintainJun 8, 2026
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainJun 4, 2026
B of A Securities Buy BuyMaintainJun 4, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainMay 22, 2026
Deutsche Bank Buy HoldUpgradeMay 20, 2026
Oppenheimer Outperform OutperformMaintainApr 29, 2026
Jefferies Hold HoldMaintainApr 20, 2026
Goldman Sachs Sell SellMaintainOct 31, 2025
Guggenheim Neutral NeutralMaintainApr 29, 2025
Stephens & Co. Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainDec 13, 2024
Stephens& Co. Equal Weight OverweightDowngradeMar 21, 2024
Wolfe Research Peer Perform OutperformDowngradeJul 12, 2023
Credit Suisse Outperform OutperformMaintainApr 26, 2023
Cowen & Co. Outperform OutperformMaintainFeb 14, 2023
Loop Capital Buy BuyMaintainJun 17, 2022
BMO Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainDec 13, 2021
Seaport Global Buy BuyMaintainJul 9, 2021
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainJun 17, 2021
SVB Leerink Outperform OutperformMaintainDec 14, 2020
SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Buy BuyMaintainApr 13, 2020
Leerink Swann Outperform Market PerformUpgradeOct 24, 2018
Mitsubishi UFJ Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 19, 2018
Bank of America Buy BuyMaintainJul 24, 2018
PiperJaffray Overweight OverweightMaintainJan 4, 2017
Evercore ISI Group Buy BuyMaintainSep 23, 2016
Stifel Nicolaus Buy HoldUpgradeMay 26, 2016
Stifel Buy HoldUpgradeMay 26, 2016
FBR Capital Outperform Market PerformUpgradeJul 13, 2015
Susquehanna Positive PositiveMaintainJun 15, 2015
Sterne Agee Buy BuyMaintainJun 27, 2014
Monness, Crespi, Hardt Neutral BuyDowngradeOct 23, 2013
Monness Crespi Hardt Neutral BuyDowngradeOct 23, 2013
Lazard Buy BuyMaintainJun 27, 2013
Raymond James Market Perform OutperformDowngradeMay 24, 2013
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Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $62.08. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
UBSAnalyst unavailable$79$64.43 +27.3%Aug 18, 2026
Argus ResearchJohn Staszak$80$66.56 +28.9%Aug 11, 2026
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$79$62.37 +27.3%Aug 3, 2026
Stifel NicolausAnalyst unavailable$79$62.22 +27.3%Aug 3, 2026
Morgan StanleyErin Wright$66$62.27 +6.3%Jul 29, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$66$64.02 +6.3%Jul 29, 2026
BarclaysAndrew Mok$80$64.02 +28.9%Jul 29, 2026
Truist FinancialDavid MacDonald$78$68.29 +25.6%Jul 14, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$69$67.35 +11.1%Jul 13, 2026
Raymond JamesSarah James$75$66.05 +20.8%Jul 7, 2026
RBC CapitalBen Hendrix$70$63.67 +12.8%Jun 23, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$63$62.33 +1.5%Jun 8, 2026
Morgan StanleyErin Wright$57$59.55 -8.2%Jun 4, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$71$59.58 +14.4%Jun 1, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$75$57.64 +20.8%May 26, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$61$57.77 -1.7%May 22, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnn Hynes$58$59.15 -6.6%May 20, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$80$59.15 +28.9%May 20, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$58$52.69 -6.6%Apr 29, 2026
OppenheimerAnalyst unavailable$58$49.57 -6.6%Apr 29, 2026
Goldman SachsScott Fidel$40$49.57 -35.6%Apr 29, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$63$49.57 +1.5%Apr 29, 2026
Raymond JamesSarah James$60$49.57 -3.4%Apr 29, 2026
Cantor FitzgeraldAnalyst unavailable$60$49.57 -3.4%Apr 28, 2026
JefferiesDavid Windley$39$38.16 -37.2%Apr 20, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnn Hynes$41$36.4 -34.0%Mar 10, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$49$42.9 -21.1%Feb 25, 2026
Wells FargoStephen Baxter$44$41.23 -29.1%Feb 18, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$39$39.72 -37.2%Feb 10, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$47$46.92 -24.3%Jan 9, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$43$45.74 -30.7%Jan 7, 2026
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$59$45.3 -5.0%Jan 6, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$54$41.78 -13.0%Jan 5, 2026
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$45$34.83 -27.5%Nov 21, 2025
BarclaysAndrew Mok$44$34.5 -29.1%Nov 4, 2025
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$45$35.62 -27.5%Oct 30, 2025
UBSAnalyst unavailable$42$36.12 -32.3%Oct 30, 2025
OppenheimerMichael Wiederhorn$45$36.68 -27.5%Oct 30, 2025
Goldman SachsScott Fidel$38$37.34 -38.8%Oct 30, 2025
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$42$36.36 -32.3%Oct 14, 2025
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$38$36.07 -38.8%Oct 14, 2025
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$33$36.36 -46.8%Oct 14, 2025
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$40$38.45 -35.6%Oct 9, 2025
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$41$37.64 -34.0%Oct 7, 2025
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$36$28.98 -42.0%Sep 5, 2025
BarclaysAndrew Mok$33$30.06 -46.8%Sep 4, 2025
OppenheimerMichael Wiederhorn$51$30 -17.8%Jul 15, 2025
UBSAnalyst unavailable$45$33.78 -27.5%Jul 2, 2025
Robert W. BairdMichael Ha$69$62.28 +11.1%Apr 15, 2025
BarclaysAndrew Mok$91$61.65 +46.6%Oct 29, 2024
JefferiesDavid Windley$72$71 +16.0%Sep 10, 2024
BarclaysAndrew Mok$97$73.26 +56.3%Sep 5, 2024
JefferiesDavid Windley$83$66.38 +33.7%Jul 11, 2024
JefferiesDavid Windley$90$73.83 +45.0%Apr 29, 2024
Wells FargoStephen Baxter$93$73.02 +49.8%Apr 15, 2024
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$74$72.56 +19.2%Feb 8, 2023
J.P. MorganAnalyst unavailable$94$70.98 +51.4%Feb 8, 2023
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$93$70.98 +49.8%Feb 8, 2023
J.P. MorganAnalyst unavailable$98$78.66 +57.9%Jan 6, 2023
Wells FargoStephen Baxter$99$95.73 +59.5%Aug 26, 2022
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$92$91.58 +48.2%Jul 27, 2022
Credit SuisseAnalyst unavailable$104$91.55 +67.5%Jul 27, 2022
Truist FinancialDavid MacDonald$102$91.93 +64.3%Jul 26, 2022
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$91$80.86 +46.6%Jun 22, 2022
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$112$81.88 +80.4%Apr 27, 2022
Truist FinancialDavid S Macdonald$96$79.79 +54.6%Jan 5, 2022
Morgan StanleyRicky Goldwasser$109$83.02 +75.6%Dec 17, 2021
Goldman SachsNathan Rich$83$81.85 +33.7%Dec 14, 2021
Bank of America SecuritiesKevin Fischbeck$93$78.15 +49.8%Dec 13, 2021
StephensScott Fidel$102$78.15 +64.3%Dec 13, 2021
OppenheimerMichael Wiederhorn$95$78.15 +53.0%Dec 13, 2021
Wolfe ResearchJustin Lake$80$78.15 +28.9%Dec 13, 2021
Credit SuisseA.J. Rice$86$78.15 +38.5%Dec 13, 2021
Evercore ISIMichael Newshel$88$70.47 +41.8%Jul 27, 2021
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Centene Corporation operates as a managed care company that provides programs and services to under-insured families, and commercial organizations in the United States. It operates through four segments: Medicaid, Medicare, Commercial, and Other. The Medicaid segment offers the temporary assistance for needy families; medicaid expansion; aged, blind, or disabled; and children's health insurance programs, as well as long-term services and supports; foster care; and medicare-medicaid plans. This segment also provides healthcare products and services.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-28T16:05:08.705949+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-02T01:23:14.593608+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-24T01:50:55.935640+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-24T01:50:55.932893+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-24. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.