Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy44 ratings
Bullish2761.4%
Neutral1636.3%
Bearish12.3%
Centene Corp. · CNC · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Centene Q1 2026: EPS Beats by 51%, Full-Year Guidance Raised
Centene delivered a decisive Q1 2026 beat, with adjusted EPS of $3.37 versus $2.23 estimated and revenue of $49.9 billion versus $47.5 billion estimated. The company raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to above $3.40, driven by Medicaid health benefit ratio improvement to 93.1%, Medicare Advantage and Part D outperformance, and Marketplace pretax margins near 3%. Management expressed confidence in trend-management initiatives and AI-enabled analytics as margin-recovery levers, while acknowledging that final risk-adjustment outcomes and elevated medical cost trends remain key variables. The stock surged 14.4% on the report and has continued to drift higher.
Reported Before market openNYSEHealthcare
$30.53B market cap
90quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationCentene Corporation operates as a managed care company that provides programs and services to under-insured families, and commercial organizations in the United States. It operates through four segments: Medicaid, Medicare, Commercial, and Other. The Medicaid segment offers the temporary assistance for needy families; medicaid expansion; aged, blind, or disabled; and children's health insurance programs, as well as long-term services and supports; foster care; and medicare-medicaid plans. This segment also provides healthcare products and services.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$3.37
Consensus $2
EPS surprise
+51.1%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$49.94B
Consensus $47.53B
Revenue surprise
+5.1%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$61.82Previous close
$33Low
$70.67Average
$109High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 8, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jun 4, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 22, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 20, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 29, 2025 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Dec 13, 2024 |
| Stephens& Co. | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Mar 21, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 12, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 26, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 14, 2023 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 30, 2022 |
| Loop Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 17, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 13, 2021 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 9, 2021 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 17, 2021 |
| SVB Leerink | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 14, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 13, 2020 |
| Leerink Swann | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Oct 24, 2018 |
| Mitsubishi UFJ | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 19, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 24, 2018 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jan 4, 2017 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 23, 2016 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 26, 2016 |
| Stifel | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 26, 2016 |
| FBR Capital | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jul 13, 2015 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Jun 15, 2015 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 27, 2014 |
| Monness, Crespi, Hardt | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 23, 2013 |
| Monness Crespi Hardt | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 23, 2013 |
| Lazard | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 27, 2013 |
| Raymond James | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | May 24, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $61.82. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Erin Wright | $66 | $62.27 | +6.8% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $66 | $64.02 | +6.8% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Andrew Mok | $80 | $64.02 | +29.4% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | David MacDonald | $78 | $68.29 | +26.2% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $69 | $67.35 | +11.6% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Sarah James | $75 | $66.05 | +21.3% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Ben Hendrix | $70 | $63.67 | +13.2% | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $62.33 | +1.9% | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Erin Wright | $57 | $59.55 | -7.8% | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $71 | $59.58 | +14.8% | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $57.64 | +21.3% | May 26, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $61 | $57.77 | -1.3% | May 22, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ann Hynes | $58 | $59.15 | -6.2% | May 20, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $59.15 | +29.4% | May 20, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $52.69 | -6.2% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $49.57 | -6.2% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Scott Fidel | $40 | $49.57 | -35.3% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $49.57 | +1.9% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Sarah James | $60 | $49.57 | -2.9% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $49.57 | -2.9% | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Jefferies | David Windley | $39 | $38.16 | -36.9% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ann Hynes | $41 | $36.4 | -33.7% | Mar 10, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $42.9 | -20.7% | Feb 25, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Stephen Baxter | $44 | $41.23 | -28.8% | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $39.72 | -36.9% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $46.92 | -24.0% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $43 | $45.74 | -30.4% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $59 | $45.3 | -4.6% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $41.78 | -12.6% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $34.83 | -27.2% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Barclays | Andrew Mok | $44 | $34.5 | -28.8% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $35.62 | -27.2% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $42 | $36.12 | -32.1% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Michael Wiederhorn | $45 | $36.68 | -27.2% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Scott Fidel | $38 | $37.34 | -38.5% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $42 | $36.36 | -32.1% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $38 | $36.07 | -38.5% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $33 | $36.36 | -46.6% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $38.45 | -35.3% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $41 | $37.64 | -33.7% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $36 | $28.98 | -41.8% | Sep 5, 2025 |
| Barclays | Andrew Mok | $33 | $30.06 | -46.6% | Sep 4, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Michael Wiederhorn | $51 | $30 | -17.5% | Jul 15, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $33.78 | -27.2% | Jul 2, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Michael Ha | $69 | $62.28 | +11.6% | Apr 15, 2025 |
| Barclays | Andrew Mok | $91 | $61.65 | +47.2% | Oct 29, 2024 |
| Jefferies | David Windley | $72 | $71 | +16.5% | Sep 10, 2024 |
| Barclays | Andrew Mok | $97 | $73.26 | +56.9% | Sep 5, 2024 |
| Jefferies | David Windley | $83 | $66.38 | +34.3% | Jul 11, 2024 |
| Jefferies | David Windley | $90 | $73.83 | +45.6% | Apr 29, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Stephen Baxter | $93 | $73.02 | +50.4% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $74 | $72.56 | +19.7% | Feb 8, 2023 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $94 | $70.98 | +52.1% | Feb 8, 2023 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $93 | $70.98 | +50.4% | Feb 8, 2023 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $78.66 | +58.5% | Jan 6, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Stephen Baxter | $99 | $95.73 | +60.1% | Aug 26, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $92 | $91.58 | +48.8% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $104 | $91.55 | +68.2% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | David MacDonald | $102 | $91.93 | +65.0% | Jul 26, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $91 | $80.86 | +47.2% | Jun 22, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $112 | $81.88 | +81.2% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | David S Macdonald | $96 | $79.79 | +55.3% | Jan 5, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ricky Goldwasser | $109 | $83.02 | +76.3% | Dec 17, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Nathan Rich | $83 | $81.85 | +34.3% | Dec 14, 2021 |
| Bank of America Securities | Kevin Fischbeck | $93 | $78.15 | +50.4% | Dec 13, 2021 |
| Stephens | Scott Fidel | $102 | $78.15 | +65.0% | Dec 13, 2021 |
| Oppenheimer | Michael Wiederhorn | $95 | $78.15 | +53.7% | Dec 13, 2021 |
| Wolfe Research | Justin Lake | $80 | $78.15 | +29.4% | Dec 13, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | A.J. Rice | $86 | $78.15 | +39.1% | Dec 13, 2021 |
| Evercore ISI | Michael Newshel | $88 | $70.47 | +42.3% | Jul 27, 2021 |
Track every rating change on CNC the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+14.0%
Event window
SPY move
-0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
+14.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.3×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+18.7%
Up to 20 sessions
CNCSPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Adjusted EPS of $3.37 exceeded the $2.23 consensus by 51%, and revenue of $49.9 billion topped estimates by 5%. Medicaid HBR improved to 93.1% due to favorable flu and weather effects plus effective trend-management programs. Medicare Advantage and Part D outperformed expectations, positioning the segment toward breakeven in 2027. Marketplace pretax margins held around 3% despite higher Silver tier utilization. The company sold $1 billion of 2025 Part D risk-share receivables and repurchased $1 billion of senior notes, reducing the debt-to-capital ratio. New Group President leadership appointments were announced to oversee Medicaid/Commercial and Medicare/PDP businesses respectively.
Guidance delta
Full-year adjusted EPS guidance was raised to above $3.40 following the Q1 beat. Management indicated June Wakely data will be used to refine risk-adjustment assumptions and potentially update guidance further.
Key takeaways
- Full-year adjusted EPS guidance raised to above $3.40 after Q1 adjusted EPS of $3.37 versus $2.23 estimated.
- Medicaid HBR improved to 93.1% driven by flu and weather benefits plus effective trend-management programs.
- Medicare Advantage and Part D outperformed expectations, positioning the segment toward breakeven in 2027.
- Marketplace pretax margin held near 3% pending full risk-adjustment receivable; outcome remains a key variable.
- New Group President leadership structure and AI-driven analytics are central to the margin-recovery strategy.
Management priorities
- Maintain and intensify Medicaid trend-management and fraud-prevention initiatives.
- Deploy total cost-of-care models for oncology, chronic kidney disease, and behavioral health.
- Leverage AI and advanced analytics across forecasting, medical economics, and payment integrity.
- Integrate new Group Presidents into execution of portfolio-wide profitability plans.
- Utilize June Wakely data to refine risk-adjustment assumptions and update guidance.
Related earnings events
HealthcareSources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-30T10:51:02.542871+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-30T10:51:02.540132+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.