Centene Corp. · CNC · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026

Centene raises outlook as Medicaid rates and Medicare margins improve

The quarter provided evidence of improving earnings power through Medicaid rate gains, stronger Medicare PDP economics, Marketplace benefits, and operating efficiencies. The durability of that improvement depends on enrollment trends, regulatory execution, risk adjustment, and Medicare Advantage profitability.

Reported Before market openNYSEHealthcare $30.66B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $2.51 Consensus $1.09
EPS surprise +130.3% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $53.58B Consensus $47.64B
Revenue surprise +12.5% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -0.3% Event window
SPY move +0.2% Same window
Abnormal move -0.5% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.8× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +1.7% Up to 20 sessions
CNCSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, management described a higher full-year outlook, stronger expected PDP and Marketplace profitability, and further progress on AI-enabled efficiency and balance-sheet reduction. Medicaid membership was modestly lower, making rate execution and enrollment trends more important to the outlook.

Guidance delta

Management raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance, citing Medicaid rate gains, Medicare PDP margin expansion, and Marketplace risk-adjustment benefits.

Key takeaways

  • Q2 performance supported a higher full-year adjusted EPS outlook.
  • Medicaid membership declined modestly, while rate improvements supported the composite rate outlook and stable HBR.
  • Medicare PDP and Marketplace profitability expectations improved; Medicare Advantage remains focused on dual-eligible members.
  • AI-enabled tools, digitization, and SG&A discipline are part of the enterprise optimization plan.

Management priorities

  • Execute Medicaid rate and community-engagement programs.
  • Simplify the Medicare Advantage footprint around dual-eligible members.
  • Scale AI and data-platform capabilities across operating functions.
  • Continue debt reduction and enterprise cost discipline.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
CNC EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $0.43 Q4 '23 actual $0.45, beat Q1 '24 estimate $2.08 Q1 '24 actual $2.26, beat Q2 '24 estimate $2.07 Q2 '24 actual $2.42, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1.33 Q3 '24 actual $1.62, beat Q2 '25 estimate $0.11 Q2 '25 actual $-0.16, miss Q3 '25 estimate $-0.14 Q3 '25 actual $0.50, beat Q4 '25 estimate $-1.22 Q4 '25 actual $-1.19, beat Q1 '26 estimate $2.23 Q1 '26 actual $3.37, beat Q2 '26 estimate $1.09 Q2 '26 actual $2.51, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.10 Q4 '26 estimate $-1.10 Q1 '27 estimate $3.33 Q2 '27 estimate $2.21
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy44 ratings
Bullish2761.4%
Neutral1636.3%
Bearish12.3%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$62.08Current
$33Low
$72.26Average
$109High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 24, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Argus Research Buy HoldUpgradeAug 11, 2026
JP Morgan Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 4, 2026
Bernstein Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 3, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 29, 2026
Baird Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 29, 2026
Show 39 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $62.08. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
UBSAnalyst unavailable$79$64.43 +27.3%Aug 18, 2026
Argus ResearchJohn Staszak$80$66.56 +28.9%Aug 11, 2026
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$79$62.37 +27.3%Aug 3, 2026
Stifel NicolausAnalyst unavailable$79$62.22 +27.3%Aug 3, 2026
Morgan StanleyErin Wright$66$62.27 +6.3%Jul 29, 2026
See 69 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Centene Corporation operates as a managed care company that provides programs and services to under-insured families, and commercial organizations in the United States. It operates through four segments: Medicaid, Medicare, Commercial, and Other. The Medicaid segment offers the temporary assistance for needy families; medicaid expansion; aged, blind, or disabled; and children's health insurance programs, as well as long-term services and supports; foster care; and medicare-medicaid plans. This segment also provides healthcare products and services.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-28T16:05:08.705949+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-02T01:23:14.593608+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-24T01:50:55.935640+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-24T01:50:55.932893+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-24. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.