Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. · CMG · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026

Chipotle Q3 Growth Holds, While Margins and Comps Remain Key Tests

Chipotle's Q3 growth and operating initiatives support the expansion case, but the next phase depends on a comparable-sales rebound, disciplined margins and execution across HEEP, AI, catering and international markets.

Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Cyclical $36.42B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.27 Consensus $0.29
EPS surprise -7.1% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $3.29B Consensus $3.29B
Revenue surprise +0.2% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

close-to-close (session unavailable)
Stock move +2.7% Event window
SPY move +0.3% Same window
Abnormal move +2.3% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.4× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift 0.0% Up to 20 sessions
CMGSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

HEEP expanded to about 1,700 restaurants, an AI cook-to-needs tool was piloted in 500 locations, and new menu and international initiatives added to the growth pipeline. Compared with the prior quarter, the emphasis shifted toward execution of the rollout and managing marketing and labor-cost pressure.

Guidance delta

Management guidance sentiment was maintained; the key watchpoint is the expected Q4 comparable-sales rebound.

Key takeaways

  • Revenue growth was 9.6%, supported by execution, technology, menu innovation and loyalty.
  • HEEP reached about 1,700 restaurants and remains on track for about 2,000 by year-end.
  • Menu innovation and digital engagement remain growth drivers, while higher marketing and labor costs pressure margins.
  • International expansion, catering and Family Meals provide additional planned growth avenues.

Management priorities

  • Complete the HEEP rollout to about 2,000 restaurants by year-end.
  • Scale AI cook-to-needs tools and the Ava Cado assistant, with national rollout planned for 2027.
  • Advance menu, catering and Family Meals initiatives.
  • Continue partner-operated international expansion and Chipotlane growth.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
CMG EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 2 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $0.19 Q4 '23 actual $0.21, beat Q1 '24 estimate $0.23 Q1 '24 actual $0.27, beat Q2 '24 estimate $0.32 Q2 '24 actual $0.34, beat Q3 '24 estimate $0.25 Q3 '24 actual $0.27, beat Q2 '25 estimate $0.33 Q2 '25 actual $0.33, match Q3 '25 estimate $0.29 Q3 '25 actual $0.29, match Q4 '25 estimate $0.24 Q4 '25 actual $0.25, beat Q1 '26 estimate $0.24 Q1 '26 actual $0.24, match Q2 '26 estimate $0.32 Q2 '26 actual $0.33, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.29 Q3 '26 actual $0.27, miss Q4 '26 estimate $0.28 Q1 '27 estimate $0.31
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy66 ratings
Bullish4466.7%
Neutral2233.3%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$28.73Previous close
$30.1Low
$45.93Average
$70High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 23, 2026
Evercore ISI Group Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 23, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 21, 2026
TD Cowen Hold BuyDowngradeOct 21, 2026
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainOct 19, 2026
Show 61 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $28.73. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
D.A. DavidsonMatt Curtis$45$28.14 +56.6%Oct 22, 2026
Deutsche BankLauren Silberman$45$28.18 +56.6%Oct 21, 2026
Gordon Haskett Capital CorporationAnalyst unavailable$36$29.88 +25.3%Oct 19, 2026
Raymond JamesAnalyst unavailable$37$30.56 +28.8%Oct 16, 2026
StephensAnalyst unavailable$38$30.52 +32.3%Oct 15, 2026
See 179 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, oversees the ownership and daily running of Chipotle Mexican Grill eateries. By February 15, 2022, its global presence included roughly 3,000 restaurant locations spread across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and other parts of Europe. The company was established in 1993 and maintains its principal office in Newport Beach, California.

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-10-29T04:04:42.042735+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-10-29T01:23:20.584741+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-29T09:50:42.745291+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-29T09:50:42.742695+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-29. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.