Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy21 ratings
Bullish1571.4%
Neutral628.6%
Bearish00.0%
Constellation Energy Corporation · CEG · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Constellation highlights post-Calpine growth, data-center demand and capital returns
The supplied analysis supports the growth hypothesis for Constellation: management linked demand from AI-driven data centers and clean firm power to long-term contracts, earnings growth and capital deployment. The case remains dependent on customer execution, regulation, project returns and Calpine integration.
Reported Before market openNASDAQUtilities
$93.52B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.30
Consensus $2.28
EPS surprise
+0.9%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$6.07B
Consensus $5.60B
Revenue surprise
+8.4%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+6.4%
Event window
SPY move
+0.7%
Same window
Abnormal move
+5.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-5.7%
Up to 20 sessions
CEGSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about CEG FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did CEG rise 6.4% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in CEG's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for CEG after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, Calpine is now described as completed, while the current analysis adds a $5 billion buyback authorization, approximately $3.9 billion of 2026–27 growth capital and a $1 billion DOE loan supporting the Crane restart. The emphasis remains on data-center demand and long-term contracting.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its guidance sentiment while emphasizing a 20% base-earnings CAGR through 2029.
Key takeaways
- Management described strong demand for clean, firm power from AI-driven data centers and other customers.
- Calpine integration adds scale; long-term contracts cover roughly 25% of clean firm output by 2030, according to the analysis.
- The company highlighted $3.9 billion of 2026–27 growth capital, a $5 billion buyback authorization and a DOE-backed Crane restart loan.
Management priorities
- Integrate Calpine and pursue coast-to-coast operating scale.
- Secure long-term contracts with hyperscalers, commercial and industrial customers, government entities and municipalities.
- Invest across nuclear, gas, battery and renewable projects while reducing leverage toward target credit metrics.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$260.43Previous close
$69Low
$304.57Average
$460High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 12, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Apr 29, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 2, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 1, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 27, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Mar 19, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 9, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 11, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 3, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 24, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Feb 22, 2023 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $260.43. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $369 | $258.04 | +41.7% | Sep 18, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $374 | $271.24 | +43.6% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $325 | $270.43 | +24.8% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $379 | $261.1 | +45.5% | Aug 7, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $376 | $273.71 | +44.4% | Aug 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $380 | $265.28 | +45.9% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $324 | $270 | +24.4% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $362 | $274.35 | +39.0% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $366 | $271.4 | +40.5% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $364 | $272.25 | +39.8% | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $305 | $267.17 | +17.1% | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $296 | $268 | +13.7% | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $359 | $285.62 | +37.8% | May 21, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Anthony Crowdell | $310 | $299.69 | +19.0% | May 12, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $361 | $315.12 | +38.6% | May 1, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Andrew Weisel | $441 | $299.26 | +69.3% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $358 | $315.17 | +37.5% | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $392 | $310.18 | +50.5% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $279.68 | +38.2% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Shahriar Pourreza | $460 | $307.71 | +76.6% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $420 | $365.62 | +61.3% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $478 | $391.15 | +83.5% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Anthony Crowdell | $390 | $390.9 | +49.8% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Sophie Karp | $417 | $389.56 | +60.1% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Angie Storozynski | $407 | $358.16 | +56.3% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Andrew Weisel | $401 | $347.12 | +54.0% | Sep 22, 2025 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $375 | $334.22 | +44.0% | Aug 12, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $375 | $330.54 | +44.0% | Aug 11, 2025 |
| UBS | William Appicelli | $320 | $273.82 | +22.9% | May 7, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Durgesh Chopra | $258 | $242.6 | -0.9% | Jan 2, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Paul Zimbardo | $234 | $232.93 | -10.1% | Nov 6, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Paul Fremont | $235 | $233.75 | -9.8% | Nov 5, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Ryan Levine | $284 | $271.74 | +9.1% | Oct 15, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $278 | $257.12 | +6.7% | Sep 24, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Paul Zimbardo | $263 | $257.12 | +1.0% | Sep 24, 2024 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $280 | $257.95 | +7.5% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Paul Fremont | $255 | $267.04 | -2.1% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Neil Kalton | $300 | $254.98 | +15.2% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Dave Arcaro | $313 | $257.12 | +20.2% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Paul Zimbardo | $256 | $254.98 | -1.7% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Sophie Karp | $265 | $269.22 | +1.8% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $186 | $189.93 | -28.6% | Sep 12, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Paul Zimbardo | $183 | $189.93 | -29.7% | Sep 12, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $246 | $183.49 | -5.5% | Aug 8, 2024 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $211 | $179.66 | -19.0% | Aug 8, 2024 |
| UBS | Ross Fowler | $249 | $220.41 | -4.4% | Jun 18, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Shelby Tucker | $218 | $216.28 | -16.3% | Jun 12, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $248 | $212.84 | -4.8% | Jun 10, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $237 | $230.8 | -9.0% | May 28, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Sophie Karp | $230 | $213.11 | -11.7% | May 20, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $247 | $213.78 | -5.2% | May 13, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Shelby Tucker | $211 | $197.7 | -19.0% | May 7, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Anthony Crowdell | $116 | $113.69 | -55.5% | Oct 13, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $99 | $89.97 | -62.0% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $97 | $94.58 | -62.8% | Nov 11, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Paul Fremont | $54 | $66.1 | -79.3% | Jul 31, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Vijay Kumar | $69 | $53.47 | -73.5% | May 13, 2022 |
| Barclays | Eric Beaumont | $72 | $63.31 | -72.4% | Apr 18, 2022 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationConstellation Energy Corporation operates as a U.S.-based firm dedicated to producing and distributing electricity. Its activities are organized across five primary geographical segments: the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, New York, ERCOT, and various other power markets. In addition to electrical power, the company supplies natural gas, sustainable energy solutions, and an array of associated energy products and services. Possessing a significant generation capability of 32,400 megawatts, its power portfolio incorporates diverse sources such as nuclear, wind, solar, natural gas, and hydroelectric facilities. The company serves a wide spectrum of clients, including utility distributors, local government bodies, cooperatives, along with commercial, industrial, public sector, and household consumers. Founded in 2021, its corporate headquarters are situated in Baltimore, Maryland. Constellation Energy Corporation previously operated as a subsidiary of Exelon Corporation.
Historical context
All CEG earningsLatest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- COSTFY2026 Q4 · September 24, 2026+3.2% EPS+2.9% move
- SNXFY2026 Q3 · September 24, 2026+20.9% EPS-9.9% move
- DRIFY2027 Q1 · September 24, 20260.0% EPS-3.0% move
- CTASFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+3.0% EPS-3.4% move
- PAYXFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+1.5% EPS-8.8% move
- GISFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+4.6% EPS+1.0% move
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-29T06:41:03.248843+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-29T06:41:03.246015+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-29. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.