Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy20 ratings
Bullish1470.0%
Neutral630.0%
Bearish00.0%
Constellation Energy Corporation · CEG · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
CEG Q1 2026: EPS Beats 8%, Revenue Up 31%, Guidance Reaffirmed on Nuclear and Calpine Synergies
Constellation Energy delivered a strong Q1 FY2026 beat, with adjusted EPS of $2.74 exceeding consensus by roughly 8% and revenue of $11.12B surpassing estimates by about 31%. Management reaffirmed full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $11-$12 and maintained its greater-than-20% earnings CAGR outlook through 2029, underpinned by nuclear production tax credits, long-term contracted revenue, and Calpine integration synergies. Free cash flow is projected to reach $11.5-$13B by 2029, supporting continued share buybacks and growth investment. Despite the fundamental strength, the market reaction was negative: the stock showed a -1.5% abnormal move on the report day and has drifted approximately -16% since, even as analyst consensus targets remain well above the current price. This disconnect suggests investors may be weighing regulatory risk in PJM and ERCOT, Calpine lock-up dynamics, or…
Reported Before market openNASDAQUtilities
$93.30B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationConstellation Energy Corporation operates as a U.S.-based firm dedicated to producing and distributing electricity. Its activities are organized across five primary geographical segments: the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, New York, ERCOT, and various other power markets. In addition to electrical power, the company supplies natural gas, sustainable energy solutions, and an array of associated energy products and services. Possessing a significant generation capability of 32,400 megawatts, its power portfolio incorporates diverse sources such as nuclear, wind, solar, natural gas, and hydroelectric facilities. The company serves a wide spectrum of clients, including utility distributors, local government bodies, cooperatives, along with commercial, industrial, public sector, and household consumers. Founded in 2021, its corporate headquarters are situated in Baltimore, Maryland. Constellation Energy Corporation previously operated as a subsidiary of Exelon Corporation.
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.74
Consensus $3
EPS surprise
+7.9%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$11.12B
Consensus $8.46B
Revenue surprise
+31.5%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$259.82Current
$69Low
$303.66Average
$460High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 12, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 21, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 2, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 1, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 1, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 27, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Mar 19, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 9, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 11, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 3, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 24, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Feb 22, 2023 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $259.82. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $380 | $265.28 | +46.3% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $324 | $270 | +24.7% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $362 | $274.35 | +39.3% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $366 | $271.4 | +40.9% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $364 | $272.25 | +40.1% | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $305 | $267.17 | +17.4% | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $296 | $268 | +13.9% | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $359 | $285.62 | +38.2% | May 21, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Anthony Crowdell | $310 | $299.69 | +19.3% | May 12, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $361 | $315.12 | +38.9% | May 1, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Andrew Weisel | $441 | $299.26 | +69.7% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $358 | $315.17 | +37.8% | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $392 | $310.18 | +50.9% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $279.68 | +38.6% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Shahriar Pourreza | $460 | $307.71 | +77.0% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $420 | $365.62 | +61.7% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $478 | $391.15 | +84.0% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Anthony Crowdell | $390 | $390.9 | +50.1% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Sophie Karp | $417 | $389.56 | +60.5% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Angie Storozynski | $407 | $358.16 | +56.6% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Andrew Weisel | $401 | $347.12 | +54.3% | Sep 22, 2025 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $375 | $334.22 | +44.3% | Aug 12, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $375 | $330.54 | +44.3% | Aug 11, 2025 |
| UBS | William Appicelli | $320 | $273.82 | +23.2% | May 7, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Durgesh Chopra | $258 | $242.6 | -0.7% | Jan 2, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Paul Zimbardo | $234 | $232.93 | -9.9% | Nov 6, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Paul Fremont | $235 | $233.75 | -9.6% | Nov 5, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Ryan Levine | $284 | $271.74 | +9.3% | Oct 15, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $278 | $257.12 | +7.0% | Sep 24, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Paul Zimbardo | $263 | $257.12 | +1.2% | Sep 24, 2024 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $280 | $257.95 | +7.8% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Paul Fremont | $255 | $267.04 | -1.9% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Neil Kalton | $300 | $254.98 | +15.5% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Dave Arcaro | $313 | $257.12 | +20.5% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Paul Zimbardo | $256 | $254.98 | -1.5% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Sophie Karp | $265 | $269.22 | +2.0% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $186 | $189.93 | -28.4% | Sep 12, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Paul Zimbardo | $183 | $189.93 | -29.6% | Sep 12, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $246 | $183.49 | -5.3% | Aug 8, 2024 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $211 | $179.66 | -18.8% | Aug 8, 2024 |
| UBS | Ross Fowler | $249 | $220.41 | -4.2% | Jun 18, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Shelby Tucker | $218 | $216.28 | -16.1% | Jun 12, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $248 | $212.84 | -4.5% | Jun 10, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $237 | $230.8 | -8.8% | May 28, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Sophie Karp | $230 | $213.11 | -11.5% | May 20, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $247 | $213.78 | -4.9% | May 13, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Shelby Tucker | $211 | $197.7 | -18.8% | May 7, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Anthony Crowdell | $116 | $113.69 | -55.4% | Oct 13, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $99 | $89.97 | -61.9% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $97 | $94.58 | -62.7% | Nov 11, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Paul Fremont | $54 | $66.1 | -79.2% | Jul 31, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Vijay Kumar | $69 | $53.47 | -73.4% | May 13, 2022 |
| Barclays | Eric Beaumont | $72 | $63.31 | -72.3% | Apr 18, 2022 |
Track every rating change on CEG the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-1.3%
Event window
SPY move
+0.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
-1.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.4×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-16.0%
Up to 20 sessions
CEGSPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Q1 FY2026 saw CEG beat on both lines. Adjusted operating EPS of $2.74 vs. $2.54 consensus (+8%) and GAAP EPS of $4.49. Revenue of $11.12B vs. $8.46B estimate (+31%). Full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $11-$12 was reaffirmed. New generation assets were placed in service: a 105 MW Pastoria solar-battery installation paired with a 750 MW combined-cycle plant in California, and a 460 MW gas peaking plant in Texas. The PUCT approved a net-metering agreement for the CyrusOne powered-land deal at Freestone Energy Center, advancing data-center monetization. CEG was named Barron's 2026 Most Sustainable U.S. Company. Share repurchases totaled $335M for the quarter. Compared to the prior quarter, the Calpine integration is described as complete, and the focus has shifted from integration execution to deploying capital into organic growth and powered-land opportunities.
Guidance delta
Full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $11-$12 was reaffirmed with no change. Management maintained the greater-than-20% base earnings CAGR outlook through 2029, with a 10% CAGR thereafter. Free cash flow trajectory of $11.5-$13B by 2029 was reiterated. The prior quarter's $3.9B growth capex plan for 2026-27 and $5B buyback authorization remain in place. Capex outlook was not specifically updated on this call.
Key takeaways
- Adjusted EPS of $2.74 beat consensus by 8%; revenue of $11.12B exceeded estimates by 31%.
- Full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $11-$12 reaffirmed; greater-than-20% earnings CAGR through 2029 maintained.
- Free cash flow projected to reach $11.5-$13B by 2029, supporting continued buybacks and growth investment.
- New generation assets placed in service: 105 MW solar-battery in California and 460 MW gas peaking in Texas.
- PUCT approved CyrusOne net-metering at Freestone, advancing data-center powered-land monetization.
- $335M in share repurchases executed during the quarter.
Management priorities
- Deploy capital to high-IRR organic growth opportunities and selective M&A.
- Advance solar-battery and natural-gas projects, including potential uprates at Byron and Braidwood nuclear units.
- Expand powered-land and colocation offerings for data-center customers in Texas and other markets.
- Maintain disciplined share-buyback program using excess free cash flow.
- Engage with PJM, FERC, and state regulators to secure clear market rules and accelerate project timelines.
Related earnings events
UtilitiesSources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T16:12:30.911184+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-29T03:23:06.916114+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T03:23:06.913329+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.