Cardinal Health, Inc. · CAH · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2024

Cardinal Health raises FY25 EPS outlook despite contract loss

Cardinal Health's FY24 results and raised FY25 EPS outlook support a constructive operating thesis, but the evidence is conditional: specialty growth, GMPD improvement, logistics investments, and cash generation are expected to offset a large contract loss. The key test is whether these offsets translate into sustained profit growth without the forecast revenue and cash-flow pressure overwhelming execution.

Reported Before market openNYSEHealthcare $57.79B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.84 Consensus $1.73
EPS surprise +6.4% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $59.87B Consensus $58.64B
Revenue surprise +2.1% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +3.7% Event window
SPY move +0.3% Same window
Abnormal move +3.4% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.5× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +5.7% Up to 20 sessions
CAHSPY benchmark

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What changed

The latest analysis shifts the focus from FY24 performance to FY25 execution. Management raised FY25 EPS guidance to $7.55-$7.70 and highlighted specialty, GMPD, biosimilars, theranostics, and logistics as offsets to a 4-6% revenue headwind from a major contract expiration.

Guidance delta

FY25 EPS guidance was increased to $7.55-$7.70, even as management expects a 4-6% revenue decline from a major contract expiration.

Key takeaways

  • Management reported record FY24 EPS of $7.53, up 29% year over year.
  • Specialty business grew 14% in FY24 and is expected to deliver continued double-digit profit growth in FY25.
  • GMPD inflation mitigation produced a $240 million year-over-year profit improvement, with further profit targets outlined for FY25 and FY26.
  • Adjusted free cash flow approached $4 billion in FY24, supporting planned capital investment and share repurchases.

Management priorities

  • Expand Specialty Networks and the Averon biosimilars joint venture.
  • Scale advanced therapy solutions, theranostics, and PET diagnostic capacity.
  • Invest in at-home distribution automation and new logistics capacity.
  • Continue GMPD cost optimization and inflation mitigation.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
CAH EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 6 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $1.60 Q2 '24 actual $1.82, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1.95 Q3 '24 actual $2.08, beat Q4 '24 estimate $1.73 Q4 '24 actual $1.84, beat Q1 '25 estimate $1.62 Q1 '25 actual $1.88, beat Q4 '25 estimate $2.34 Q4 '25 actual $2.63, beat Q1 '26 estimate $2.79 Q1 '26 actual $3.17, beat Q4 '26 estimate $2.98 Q1 '27 estimate $3.29 Q2 '27 estimate $3.12 Q3 '27 estimate $3.36

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy33 ratings
Bullish1854.5%
Neutral1545.5%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$249.57Current
$53Low
$196Average
$295High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 25, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 20, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainOct 16, 2026
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainAug 13, 2026
JP Morgan Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 13, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 13, 2026
Show 28 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $249.57. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$280$252.65 +12.2%Oct 20, 2026
UBSKevin Caliendo$295$253.71 +18.2%Oct 16, 2026
RBC CapitalRyan Halsted$276$234.98 +10.6%Aug 19, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$275$234.16 +10.2%Aug 13, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$265$236.64 +6.2%Aug 12, 2026
See 60 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Cardinal Health, Inc. operates as a global, integrated provider of healthcare services and products, with its reach spanning the United States, Canada, Europe, Asia, and other international markets. The company delivers bespoke support to a diverse clientele, including hospitals, healthcare networks, pharmacies, outpatient surgical centers, clinical labs, physician practices, and individuals receiving care at home. It is structured into two core divisions: Pharmaceutical and Medical. The Pharmaceutical division oversees the distribution of a wide array of products, encompassing branded, generic, and specialty pharmaceuticals, along with over-the-counter health and consumer goods. This segment additionally offers specialized services to pharmaceutical manufacturers and healthcare providers, particularly for specialty pharmaceutical products. Its operations extend to managing nuclear pharmacies and facilities that produce radiopharmaceuticals. It also performs repackaging of generic drugs and OTC items.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-10-17T05:10:49.140638+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-25T02:20:41.846434+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-25T02:20:41.843417+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-25. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.