Credicorp Ltd. · BAP · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025

Credicorp raises ROE outlook as digital lending expands

The current analysis supports a constructive operating thesis: resilient profitability, retail loan growth and expanding digital platforms are supporting Credicorp's outlook. The main test is whether Yape-led lending can scale without materially worsening credit costs or efficiency, particularly after the SUNAT cash outflow.

Reported After market closeNYSEFinancial Services $30.04B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $6.43 Consensus $5.93
EPS surprise +8.4% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $1.60B Consensus $1.56B
Revenue surprise +2.4% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +0.6% Event window
SPY move -0.2% Same window
Abnormal move +0.8% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.7× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +5.5% Up to 20 sessions
BAPSPY benchmark

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What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, management moved from maintained guidance to a higher ROE outlook. Yape's reported reach and lending contribution increased, while the SUNAT payment and no extraordinary dividend added a clearer liquidity constraint.

Guidance delta

Management raised full-year ROE guidance to about 19% and lifted its sustainable ROE target to 19.5%.

Key takeaways

  • Q2 performance included 20.7% ROE, record risk-adjusted NIM and a 44.2% efficiency ratio.
  • Yape reached 15 million monthly active users and is becoming a larger revenue contributor through lending.
  • Management expects cost of risk to rise modestly as higher-yield portfolios are originated.
  • The SUNAT payment reduced cash flexibility; no extraordinary dividend is planned this year.

Management priorities

  • Scale Yape lending, including multi-installment and SME products.
  • Continue expanding Tenpo and other digital banking services.
  • Invest in AI-driven personalization, chatbots and risk-adjusted NIM tools.
  • Maintain retail-focused loan growth and use the October 9 Investor Day to detail the future finance platform.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
BAP REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 8 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $1B Q4 '23 actual $1B, miss Q1 '24 estimate $1B Q1 '24 actual $1B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $1B Q2 '24 actual $1B, beat Q2 '25 estimate $2B Q2 '25 actual $2B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $2B Q3 '25 actual $2B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $2B Q4 '25 actual $2B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $2B Q1 '26 actual $2B, match Q2 '26 estimate $2B Q2 '26 actual $2B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $2B Q4 '26 estimate $7B Q1 '27 estimate $7B Q2 '27 estimate $7B

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy14 ratings
Bullish964.3%
Neutral535.7%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$385.14Current
$154Low
$323.71Average
$480High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 6, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Overweight NeutralUpgradeSep 16, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainAug 20, 2026
Goldman Sachs Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 16, 2026
Morgan Stanley Overweight Equal WeightUpgradeJun 17, 2026
HSBC Buy HoldUpgradeMay 19, 2026
Show 9 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $385.14. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
UBSThiago Batista$473$368.98 +22.8%Aug 20, 2026
Morgan StanleyJorge Kuri$480$364.28 +24.6%Jun 17, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$412$342.85 +7.0%May 26, 2026
HSBCCarlos Gomez-Lopez$350$303.86 -9.1%May 19, 2026
UBSThiago Batista$408$340.01 +5.9%Apr 21, 2026
See 5 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Credicorp Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking services and products in Peru, Bermuda, Colombia, Bolivia, Panama, Chile, the United States, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico. It operates through Universal Banking; Insurance, Medical Services, and Pensions; Microfinance; and Investment Management and Advisory segments. The company grants various credits and financial instruments to individuals and legal entities; and various deposits and current accounts. It also issues insurance policies to cover losses in commercial property, transport, marine vessels, automobiles, life, health, and pensions; provides medical and health services, as well as management services of private pension funds to the affiliates.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-06T20:20:43.788985+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-06T20:20:43.785080+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-06. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.